While the 5th through 8th seeds aren’t settled, the Indiana Pacers will likely to end up in the 7th or 8th spot. So who should they want to face?
The Indiana Pacers are still sitting in 7th place after Sunday’s action in the NBA, which included an inexplicable collapse by the Cleveland Cavaliers against the Atlanta Hawks.
While that game might hurt Indiana’s hope for the 5th or 6th seed, it shouldn’t cause the Pacers too much trouble as far as staying in the playoff picture is concerned.
According to PlayoffStatus.com, Indiana is looking at a 35% chance of holding on to the 7th seed and a 33% chance of falling into the 8th seed. Their chances for 5th are down to 3% and 6th sits at a 7% chance. That leaves just a 21% chance to miss out on the postseason.
Who the Indiana Pacers are watching
It is unlikely Indiana will move up into the 5th or 6th slot as they can’t clinch either spot without some help. They can, however, clinch a playoff spot with a win over the 76ers and one of the following scenarios: A loss by the Miami Heat to the Cleveland Cavaliers, or a Chicago Bulls loss to the Orlando Magic. If both lose, Indiana clenches the 7th spot, but if one of them loses, that puts the Pacers in at least 8th.
This gets a little confusing, but just focus on whether the Pacers are a game ahead of the Heat and Bulls. If Indiana wins out this won’t be an issue, but if they only win one more game it could get dicey depending on how the Heat and Bulls finish. Both teams are only a game back of the Pacers.
The other game the Pacers will be eyeing is the Milwaukee Bucks and Charlotte Hornets on Monday as a Milwaukee win would give them an edge over the Pacers in the case of tie breakers as they’ll have at least 42 wins.
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42 is the magic number for Indiana the rest of the regular season. That’s the most wins Indiana can finish with.
The Hawks already have 42 wins. If the Hawks don’t beat the Hornets on Tuesday, and then lose to the Pacers on Wednesday, they could end up tied with Indiana if the Pacers beat them and the Philadelphia 76ers tonight. This is the only scenario where Indiana could get a tie-breaker advantage.
Yeah, this gets a little confusing, but just focus on if the Bucks or Hawks get more that 42 or more wins.
I know this a lot of “If X beats Y and Z beats somebody else”, but when you have four teams fighting for five spots with only three games between 5th and 9th place, it is going to get weird.
So, assuming Indiana can beat the 76ers and get a little help, Indiana is likely looking at facing the Cleveland Cavaliers or Boston Celtics in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs.
Given a choice, should the Indiana Pacers want the 7th or 8th seed?
At this point, the Pacers will just be happy to make the playoffs, but after winning their last three games they can actually take a tiny breath as they prepare for their last two regular season games. They don’t really have the luxury of trying to manipulate which spot they end up in, but which would be better for Indiana?
But one variable has chanced since then, and that comes in the form of Lance Stephenson.
As it stands now, Indiana is set to face the number two seed, the Celtics. As our own Luke Parrish noted last week, the Celtics swept the season series. Boston has done well to outrebound the Pacers and force more turnovers by Indiana than they usually are responsible for.
But one variable has chanced since then, and that comes in the form of Lance Stephenson.
Lance can be that bigger guard the Pacers lacked on defense all season. His 6’10” wingspan isn’t easy to get around, nor does he back down easily. He is still making some mistakes as far as rotating and help defense, but that’s expected when you join the team this late in the year. Flaws and all, he’s an x-factor in any rematch.
But more than what Stephenson may bring, a matchup against the Celtics means Paul George is the best player on the floor in that series.
But more than what Stephenson may bring, a matchup against the Celtics means Paul George is the best player on the floor in that series. That’s often a deciding factor in the postseason. George has been averaging 28.4 points a game since March 1st, tied for fourth with LeBron James. Considering that and Isaiah Thomas’ one-sided skill set, the Pacers clearly have the best player in that series, even if Boston has a better team.
A matchup against the Celtics also means you wouldn’t be facing LeBron until the conference finals. Not that Indiana will be a favorite in any series this postseason, but assuming the Cavaliers hold on to first place, Indiana is better off facing the Celtics than the Cavaliers by any sane logic.
One might argue that if you are going to beat the Cavaliers, you want to do it early in the playoffs before they build momentum. However, I don’t think Indiana beats Cleveland in a series unless they get something special from Paul George every night and a lot of help from the rest of the Pacers.
Next: Pacers Still Have Rotational Decisions to Iron Out
If Indiana has any hope of a deep postseason run, it is more likely to start with a series against Boston, not the reigning NBA champions.