The Indiana Pacers aren’t out of the playoff hunt, but their loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers didn’t help their chances of making the postseason.
Thanks to some help from around the NBA, the Indiana Pacers are a 54% chance of making the playoffs right now according to PlayoffStatus.com.
The bad news is the Pacers don’t control their own fate at the moment, even if they win out. The good news is that’s a highly unlikely scenario.
WARNING: There are a lot of numbers and percentages ahead, so pay attention.
By Playoff Status’ calculations, if the Pacers win their next five games, they still have less than a 1% chance of missing the playoffs, depending on how the rest of the Eastern Conference shakes out. So that’s more than a 99% chance of getting into the postseason if they win their next five games, but it serves as a reminder that losing so many close games could come back to haunt them. Indiana’s 7-8 record in the Central Division and 21-26 in the conference doesn’t help either.
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It is worth noting that if they can win at least three of their remaining games, they’ll have a 72% chance of getting into the postseason.
Looking at the current standings, the Pacers have a 46% chance of missing the playoffs, a 31% shot at making it in at the 8th seed, and a 15% chance for the 7th seed. While it is still possible for them to move as high as the 5th seed (2% chance) or the 6th (7% chance), let’s not fool ourselves; Indiana is fighting for the playoff lives, not playoff position.
That’s a lot of numbers and wonkiness, but that’s what happens when you have six teams within four wins of each other. All your really need to know is Indiana really needs to pick up two or three wins in these last few games if they want to make it into the playoffs.
Can the Indiana Pacers Pick Up Those Wins?
Their remaining schedule starts with home games against the Toronto Raptors on April 4th and the Milwaukee Bucks on the 6th. They follow that with a pair of road games against the Orlando Magic on the 8th and the Philadelphia 76ers on the 10th. The Pacers end the regular season with a final home game against the Atlanta Hawks on the 12th.
It won’t be easy to beat the Raptors or Bucks even in Indiana, but that’s two home games and a split their could be critical to Indiana’s chances. They are better than both the Magic and 76ers, but winning on the road even against bad teams is never a given, especially for the Pacers. Indiana should win those two to push them over that critical hump that would put them in the playoffs, but nothing has come easy this season for Indiana.
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By the time the Pacers return to Indiana, we’ll know exactly what Indiana needs going into the final game. I’ve got a bad feeling, however, they’ll be playing for their playoff lives come April 12th.