No Man’s Land: Why Paul George Isn’t Having the Season We Expected

In a season where things haven’t gone as smoothly as hoped, many fans have placed the blame on Paul George. While pinning all of the Pacers’ problems on him is largely unfair, George has dipped in production this season. Why?

Remember the blissfully ignorant days of the off-season? Where trades and signings could be idealized as perfect, and expectations were through the roof? It was only a few short months ago when the main speculation surrounding Paul George was whether or not he’d leap into MVP discussion this year.

Now, the discussion is about how he hasn’t even been a top 10 player, and the speculation is whether or not Larry Bird should trade him before he leaves of his own volition.

This article isn’t going to entertain those ideas.

George should have plenty of reason to remain a Pacer regardless of how the next two seasons go, and a two-month stretch in which he was hurt for several games shouldn’t be indicative of his overall skill.

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However, to ignore the fact that his production has dipped this season would be foolish. George has been on the verge of crossing the line between a superstar and one of the superstars for a while now, and this season seemed like a better time than ever, a full two years away from his horrific leg injury.

This off-season was tailored to provide him with better assets. Jeff Teague is a much better distributor than George Hill ever was for the Pacers, and the addition of Thaddeus Young to the power forward position should’ve provided the space George needs to create and attack in the manner of a true superstar.

If anything, this should have been a year of growth for PG13. Instead, it’s been a year of regression. George is falling short in almost every major output category this year in comparison to his performance last year.

2015-16: 23.1 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 4.1 APG, 1.9 SPG, 0.4 BPG
2016-17: 22.2 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 3.3 APG, 1.8 SPG, 0.3 BPG

And according to NBA Math’s Total Points Added metric, George isn’t the best player on the team on either side of the floor. On offense, that honor goes to Teague, while Turner takes the crown defensively.

TPA breakdown for the Indiana Pacers.

Yes, you're seeing this correctly. Paul George does not have the team's best numbers this year. pic.twitter.com/MuQQhnODdb
— NBA Math (@NBA_Math) December 28, 2016

But wait, this doesn’t make any sense. George is scoring more efficiently in every category this season. His FG% has shot up to 44.7 (41.8 last season), his 3P% has moved up to 37.9 (37.1), and his FT% has improved to an impressive 92.8 (86.0) last season. His field goal attempts and 3-point attempts per game have only dropped by a grand total of about .5, so how is he scoring less?

The answer is very, very simple. His free throw totals. George was openly frustrated at the referees only a week ago, and he had reason — albeit not good reason. George has somehow gone from taking 6.5 free throws a game last year to a mere 4.6 this year.

Is there really some kind of conspiracy against him and his fellow Pacers? Well, considering Teague is averaging a career high in free throws a game, probably not. The problem lies in George’s playstyle. He isn’t being assertive enough in isolation.

We saw a perfect example of this in the Indiana Pacers loss to the Washington Wizards.

George had ample opportunity to drive to the hoop on Otto Porter, where he almost assuredly would have either gotten an easy look at the rim or gotten two foul shots by the hands of Porter or an incoming Markieff Morris/Marcin Gortat.

Instead, George starts his drive and then becomes hesitant about halfway through, seemingly unsure of whether to continue driving, to shoot the ball or to pass it off to a teammate. He often moves horizontally across the court in 1-on-1 situations rather than vertically. He had two clear chances to just make a run at the basket and see what happens, but he instead opted to take a contested mid-range jumper.

George has said in the past that the mid-range is his game and that he doesn’t care that analytics deem it a bad shot. And that’s fine if he’s making them. And sure, he has his moments where he can square up and knock down multiple mid-range jumpers in succession. But for the most part, shots like that, especially at a time when you’re down double digits, are inexcusable. There is no reason to take what is literally the worst shot in basketball when there is a two easy points at the line right there for the taking.

Will he always get the call? No. But there are much better odds of him either scoring at the rim or getting foul shots than there are of him making that contested jumper.

Will he always get the call? No. But there are much better odds of him either scoring at the rim or getting foul shots than there are of him making that contested jumper. Superstars make something out of nothing in these scenarios, and they’re rewarded with foul calls due to the frequency of their attacks at the rim. If George wants to be a superstar, he needs to play like one and demand the attention that a superstar deserves.

The top ten players this season in FTA per game? Russell Westbrook, James Harden, DeMarcus Cousins, Anthony Davis, Jimmy Butler, Isaiah Thomas, DeMar DeRozan, Damian Lillard, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kawhi Leonard. What do these players have in common? They’re all currently outscoring George — in some cases by a lot.

Where does George rank? 37th. He’s not even leading his own team in the category; Teague is averaging almost a full free throw more per game. It’s a shame, too, considering George is currently second in the NBA in FT%. Swap some of those ugly mid-range jumpers for trips to the charity strike, and George is probably looking at 24-25 PPG.

It looks simple because it is. If George would stop settling so often, his numbers would look much better than they do now.

This isn’t new, however. In fact, this trend has been growing increasingly over the past few years for George.

As his tendency to shoot mid-range jumpers has gone up his tendency to score at the rim has gone down.

The numbers seemed to really take a turn in the past two seasons, and we could all probably guess why.

George’s playstyle definitely (and understandably) has changed since his injury, and he shouldn’t be blamed for that. But there is some middle ground to be found, and that ground ironically shouldn’t be in the form of mid-range jumpers.

George needs to stop this trend from evolving further, or his chances at being a true offensive juggernaut will be severely damaged.

It’s mental more than physical at this point. George can easily drive to the rim and score; no one is doubting that. He needs to have the confidence that he can score there like a true superstar, and he needs to ditch the little brother mentality and earn himself some free throws. The referees can’t do much in regards to pull-up jumpers. George has to get into traffic and create points for himself like the other stars of the league can.

This isn’t about the Pacers; the team has problems rooted much deeper than George’s shortcomings this season. George scoring a couple extra points a game won’t turn the Pacers into a contender. But for the Pacers to be able to contend, whenever that may be, it has to start with George’s emergence as a true superstar. He proved he could do it last year in the playoffs; he averaged 9.1 FTA a game and scored 27.3 PPG in the series against the Raptors.

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But, with his team currently struggling to keep its head above water, he has to step up and be a superstar every night- not just in the playoffs. Aggression and free throws won’t automatically flip the switch for George to get back into top 10 (or 5) shape, but it’s the best place to start.