The 8 Points, 9 Seconds staff expects the Indiana Pacers to win around 48 games this season.
When the Indiana Pacers get the season started at Bankers Life Fieldhouse tonight agasint the Dallas Mavericks, they’ll take their first step into the 2016-17 NBA season.
There is plenty of uncertainty ahead, but the 8 Points, 9 Seconds staff is ready to forecast and prognosticate the upcoming season.
While many of the experts have lower expectations for the Pacers, the staff believes the Pacers will win roughly 48 games this season, finish second in the Central Division and in the top half of the Eastern Conference.
Name | How many games will the Indiana Pacers win this year? | Where will the Pacers finish in the Central Division? | Where will the finish in the Eastern Conference? |
Jon Washburn | 49 | 2nd | 4th |
Ryan Barth | 50 | 2nd | 4th |
Jon LaFollette | 48 | 2nd | 4th |
Jared Wade | 48 | 2nd | 4th |
Will Furr | 48 | 2nd | 4th |
Jacky Neal | 48 | 2nd | 4th |
Scott Stewart | 46 | 3rd | 5th |
Ryan Eggers | 51 | 2nd | 3rd |
Dave Searle | 48 | 2nd | 5th |
Jeremy Comstock | 48 | 2nd | 3rd |
Ben Gibson | 49 | 2nd | 3rd |
Dylan Hughes | 47 | 2nd | 4th |
Last season the staff (on average) underestimated the Indiana Pacers by two wins, so our bias wasn’t strong enough a season ago.
We’ll have to wait and see if that holds true for the 2016-17 campaign, but the consensus is optimistic across the board, with the lowest win total coming in at 46 while the top estimate is 51.
As for who will lead Indiana in scoring, rebounds, assists, and other stats, let’s take a look at all the votes.
Name | Who will be the team’s leading scorer? | Who will be the team’s second leading scorer? | Who will be the leading rebounder? | Who will lead the team in blocks? | Who will lead the team in assists? | Who will lead the team in steals? |
Jon Washburn | Paul George | Jeff Teague | Paul George | Myles Turner | Monta Ellis | Monta Ellis |
Ryan Barth | Paul George | Jeff Teague | Thaddeus Young | Myles Turner | Jeff Teague | Monta Ellis |
Jon LaFollette | Paul George | Jeff Teauge | Thaddeus Young | Myles Turner | Jeff Teague | Paul George |
Jared Wade | Paul George | Monta Ellis | Myles Turner | Myles Turner | Jeff Teague | Paul George |
Will Furr | Paul George | Monta Ellis | Myles Turner | Myles Turner | Jeff Teague | Paul George |
Jacky Neal | Paul George | Jeff Teague | Thaddeus Young | Myles Turner | Jeff Teague | Paul George |
Scott Stewart | Paul George | Monta Ellis | Al Jefferson | Myles Turner | Jeff Teague | Paul George |
Ryan Eggers | Paul George | Jeff Teague | Thaddeus Young | Myles Turner | Jeff Teague | Monta Ellis |
Dave Searle | Paul George | Thaddeus Young | Thaddeus Young | Myles Turner | Jeff Teague | Paul George |
Jeremy Comstock | Paul George | Jeff Teague | Thaddeus Young | Myles Turner | Jeff Teague | Paul George |
Ben Gibson | Paul George | Thaddeus Young | Thaddeus Young | Myles Turner | Monta Ellis | Jeff Teague |
Dylan Hughes | Paul George | Jeff Teague | Thaddeus Young | Myles Turner | Jeff Teague | Jeff Teague |
Paul George gets the unanimous vote as the Indiana Pacers leading scorer this season, with Jeff Teague expected to follow-up as the second leading scorer. Monta Ellis and Thaddeus Young also received votes to play second fiddle to PG.
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At first, it may be surprising that anyone but a center or power forward was picked to be the leading rebounder, but Jon Washburn has good reason to think George will lead Indiana this season.
Last year PG (563) actually out-rebounded Ian Mahinmi (507) in total rebounds, though Mahinmi had a better per a game average according to Basketball-Reference.
Myles was unopposed in the voting for leading shot blocker — for good reason — while Jeff Teague got all but two votes (both for Ellis) as the team’s leader in assists.
George (152) and Ellis (150) had a close fought battle in steals last season and that is expected to be the case again, though Teague got a pair of votes for having the stickiest fingers as well.
Indiana’s offense is expected to be the Pacers biggest advantage this season, but Washburn thinks steals will be the Pacers biggest strength, and he is the only one who thinks Indiana has an advantage with anything defensively. (He’s got hot takes sometimes, and we have to shame him for them when he’s wrong.)
The staff likes Al Jefferson and Thaddeus Young to lead the Pacers in field goal percentage, with only Dave Searle going out on a limb with Lavoy Allen. (Even though his shot-making isn’t likely to help the team much given his expected low minute count.)
As far as 3-point shooting goes, George holds a slide edge over C.J. Miles in the polls, and Will Furr thinks backup point guard Aaron Brooks will sneak in to claim that title.
Name | What will be the team’s biggest strength? | Who will end the season with the best FG%? | Who will have the team’s best 3-Point percentage? |
Jon Washburn | Steals | Al Jefferson | Paul George |
Ryan Barth | Offensive Rating | Al Jefferson | Paul George |
Jon LaFollette | Offensive Rating | Al Jefferson | Paul George |
Jared Wade | Offensive Rating | Thaddeus Young | C.J. Miles |
Will Furr | Points Per Game | Al Jefferson | Aaron Brooks |
Jacky Neal | Pace | Al Jefferson | C.J. Miles |
Scott Stewart | Ast/TO ratio | Al Jefferson | Paul George |
Ryan Eggers | Pace | Thaddeus Young | C.J. Miles |
Dave Searle | Pace | Lavoy Allen | Paul George |
Jeremy Comstock | Pace | Thaddeus Young | Paul George |
Ben Gibson | Pace | Thaddeus Young | C.J. Miles |
Dylan Hughes | Offensive Rating | Al Jefferson | C.J. Miles |
There was more diversity (with the exception of MVP) in votes for who will be the most and least impressive this season.
Rookies, younger players, and veterans all find their names in the ballot box.
Name | Biggest Surprise? | Biggest Disappointment? | MVP | LVP |
Jon Washburn | Rodney Stuckey | C.J. Miles | Paul George | Lavoy Allen |
Ryan Barth | Glenn Robinson III | C.J. Miles | Thaddeus Young | Aaron Brooks |
Jon LaFollette | Georges Niang | Rodney Stucky | Paul George | Rakeem Christmas |
Jared Wade | Kevin Seraphin | Georges Niang | Paul George | Rakeem Christmas |
Will Furr | Thaddeus Young | C.J. Miles | Paul George | Roy Hibbert |
Jacky Neal | Glenn Robinson III | Lavoy Allen | Paul George | Lavoy Allen |
Scott Stewart | Monta Ellis | Rodney Stuckey | Paul George | Joe Young |
Ryan Eggers | Rodney Stuckey | Al Jefferson | Paul George | Georges Niang |
Dave Searle | Thaddeus Young | Al Jefferson | Paul George | Aaron Brooks |
Jeremy Comstock | Thaddeus Young | Myles Turner | Paul George | Al Jefferson |
Ben Gibson | Glenn Robinson III | Aaron Brooks | Paul George | Kevin Seraphin |
Dylan Hughes | Glenn Robinson III | Aaron Brooks | Paul George | Aaron Brooks |
Jeremy Comstock clarified that he only believes Turner will disappoint this season due to high expectations. He believes Turner is very good, but his season will be plagued by injuries and foul trouble. Naturally “disappointment” and “surprise” are the two most subjective category, so each voter’s preconceptions matter more in those areas than anywhere else.
Also, Furr needs to move on and let his hate for Roy Hibbert go. He’s two teams removed now!
Next: Experts Expect the Indiana Pacers To Hover Above .500
So who do you think? Fill out the survey here and we’ll revisit the answers at the end of the regular season.