2016-17 Central Division Previews: Milwaukee Bucks

Much like the Pacers, the Central Division made a lot of moves this offseason. Here’s the first in a series of previews of the other teams in the division, profiling the Milwaukee Bucks.

The Pacers aren’t the only team in the Central Division that has had some shakeups this off-season. The rest of the division made some moves as well, and it’s worth taking a look at how things might end up based on these changes.

First up, here’s a preview of the Milwaukee Bucks and their outlook heading into the 2016-17 season.

Milwaukee Bucks Basics

Team:
Milwaukee Bucks

Last Season Record:
33-49

Last Season Record vs the Pacers:
1-3

Vegas Projected Win Total:
36

Key Additions:
Thon Maker, Matthew Dellavedova, Mirza Teletovic

Key Losses:
Khris Middleton (to injury), Jerryd Bayless, O.J. Mayo

Milwaukee Bucks Season Preview

It seems a bit sad to talk about the Bucks now, doesn’t it? The basketball world raved all throughout the offseason about the potential of Jason Kidd’s young squad, and how exciting their core would look with another year under their belts. Throw in Thon Maker — who fits into the culture of freakishly long-armed dudes — and Milwaukee looked like a team that could sneak into the playoffs despite their disappointing 2015-16 campaign.

One Khris Middleton injury later, and Milwaukee looks like a team that should probably have their sights set on just trying to beat their win total of 33 from last year.

For someone that isn’t necessarily mentioned among the ranks of NBA’s elite, and furthermore someone that isn’t even the most well-known player on his own team, it can be easy to understate how important Middleton is to the Milwaukee Bucks. But the numbers don’t lie.

More from 8 Points, 9 Seconds

Last season, Middleton rose to stardom as one of the premier backcourt guys in the East despite his team’s fall from a playoff team to the 12th seed in the conference. Without even diving into deeper analytics or statistics, it doesn’t take a genius to know that a guy averaging 18/4/4 while shooting 40% from 3-point range and 89% from the line is going to be severely missed every night.

Speaking of the 33-point line, the Bucks were awful beyond that thing last year. They ranked 30th in both made and attempted triples team last year. And if you’re thinking “how could it possibly get worse?”, you’re in for a surprise. The Bucks had three players average at least 1 made 3-pointer per game last season. The other thing those three players have in common? They aren’t going to be on the court for the Bucks this season.

Middleton (injury), Jerryd Bayless (76ers), and O.J. Mayo (suspended indefinitely) leave the Bucks without many options behind the arc. They did bring in Matthew Dellavedova and Mirza Teletovic — two players who hover around 40% from deep — but ultimately won’t have the offensive impact needed to make up for how poorly the rest of the team performs from that range.

Toss in their 26th-ranked offensive rating and 23rd-ranked defensive rating last year and this season looks like a recipe for disaster for Milwaukee. Greg Monroe doesn’t seem to quite click as a Buck, and the team couldn’t find any suitors for him during the offseason.

Last year, the young team didn’t seem prepared at all to take the next step as they fell far back from their 6th seed finish in 2014-15, and there isn’t much indication of when they’ll elevate their playing level to the expectations of fans across the NBA. It’s very possible this team might not have been able to improve much with a full squad on the floor, and it’s very likely that they won’t be going anywhere without one of their best players for most (to all) of the year.

A lot of things would have to go right for this team to make noise when playoff time rolls around. Without any major offseason trades or acquisitions, the Bucks were banking on the team bouncing back and finding success in their core as their roles became more defined last season. With Middleton out, it seems as if the new mission is to keep developing and hope that they can begin to #OwnTheFuture next season.

What This Means for the Pacers

The Indiana Pacers were able to handle the Bucks last season, winning the season series 3-1 and somehow defeating them on the last day of the regular season without Paul George, Monta Ellis, George Hill, C.J. Miles, or Ian Mahinmi.

All things considered, there shouldn’t be any reason that that success changes going into this year.

Disregarding the outlier that was that final game between the two squads, something stands out in each of the three Bucks and Pacers matchups last season, even the one that the Pacers lost: the assist battle.

The Pacers were somewhat pedestrian in the assist game last year (22nd in the league in APG) while the Bucks were somewhat successful (9th). But when the two faced off those roles completely switched. The Pacers put up 28, 27, and 28 assists in the three meaningful games against the Bucks (and for what it’s worth, 28 assists again in that final game). The Bucks? 19, 18, and 14.

The Pacers rolled out an efficient offensive machine against the Bucks last year. There was never a dominant player in any of the three matchups (Paul George did have 31 in their lone loss). Scoring was distributed evenly and their assist-to-turnover ratio was way above their normal season average (1.77 vs. 1.48).

Jordan Hill was the leading scorer in their win against the Bucks in March. A lot of good things have to be happening for sentences like that to be true.

Why exactly did this happen? The answer lies in the playing style of both teams. The Pacers made strides towards becoming a quicker team oriented around 3-pointers and transition buckets, following the trend that most NBA teams are trying to follow. The Bucks are trying to zag, building a team of huge guys who can hold things down by the rim and in the mid-range game, keeping a slower pace while the rest of the NBA speeds up.

This isn’t a debate over which style is the right one to build around or which is more effective in today’s NBA. But for last season at least, the quicker style prevailed in many ways for the Pacers.

Fastbreak points were key. The Pacers averaged 19 per game in the first three matchups against the Bucks. The Bucks had the worst transition defense last year (via Synergy Sports). This is important, but doesn’t make a huge difference, as the Bucks were able to hold their own in their own fastbreak game in those three games (scoring 18 a game).

Where the efficiency really kicked in for the Pacers, and failed for the Bucks, was in the aforementioned 3-point game. The Bucks held their own in the paint, edging the Pacers out in points in the paint in almost every game (they tied in the first game). The Bucks mostly performed better from the free-throw line. But they lost the 3-point battle. Badly.

The Pacers shot 38-for-70 over the first three matchups against the Bucks — a crazy impressive 47.5%. When the perimeter is opened up, it’s easier for George (and now will be for Jeff Teague) to drive to the hoop, and it’s easier for guys like Myles Turner (and now Al Jefferson) to find themselves with 1-on-1 matchups in the post. Assists are easier to come by. Points are scored quickly and with volume, much to the pleasure of Paul George and Larry Bird.

The Bucks, on the other hand, continued their usual 3-point woes against the Pacers and went 14-of-45 over the three matchups — a not so impressive 31.1% on a low volume. The one game that the Bucks managed to win was their best 3-point performance (still a measly 6-of-14) with Middleton sinking 4 of those treys. And he’s, well, yeah.

Three games isn’t necessarily enough to go of off to make assumptions. But the Pacers seem to be looking to only get faster and shoot more 3s, and the Bucks seem to be primed to only get worse in those areas.

The best thing to be said about the Bucks is that the games were close last year. Despite the major discrepancy between the two team’s 3-point shooting, the Bucks usually found other ways to stay in games. Outside of the 123-86 blowout in the first meeting between the teams, every other game ended with a margin of a 5 points or fewer. If Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jabari Parker can hold their own against the Pacers as they keep improving, then maybe the Bucks can catch them on an off night and pick up a game this season.

Unfortunately for them, they don’t hold any real schedule advantage against them in their matchups. The Pacers face the Bucks on one back-to-back (February 11), when they travel home after a game in D.C. against the Wizards on February 10. However, the Bucks will be coming off of a night in Los Angeles against the Lakers on February 10, so there likely won’t be a case of tired legs causing the Bucks to steal a victory from the Pacers this season. Besides, that game is the Reggie Miller bobblehead night, so there’s obviously no way the Pacers can lose on such a historic occasion.

The Pacers will have a decent chance at getting their first divisional sweep since the 2013-14 season (Bucks) against Milwaukee this year. The Bucks had a hard time keeping up with them last year and the Pacers are only going to get faster. Middleton being gone doesn’t help a bit either. The Bucks best chance at saving a sweep will likely come from an off night from the 3-point line and a really hot night from the Greek Freak and Co.

Bucks Bottom Line

The Bucks have a lot to be excited about. They just penned their future hopeful-superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo to a four-year extension, Middleton should be back to being one of the best shooting guards in the East when he recovers, and there should be a lot of untapped potential within the rest of their young ranks.

This season probably won’t be all that pretty, though.

Getting past 33 wins will be an accomplishment for the squad. On the positive side, with expectations low, there’ll be a decent amount of time to develop and experiment without pressure, and the Bucks should have another lottery pick in a 2017 draft class that looks to be pretty deep.

Next: How Joe Young Is Inspiring Fans

They’re likely going to be sitting at the bottom of the Central Division again. Their standing in the East as a whole isn’t looking too great either. They are, on paper, the Pacers’ easiest division opponent this year.

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