Larry Bird Wants the Indiana Pacers to Score 105 Points Per Game

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Feb 6, 2016; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indiana Pacers forward Paul George (13) defended by Detroit Pistons forward Marcus Morris (13) at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports /

The question is how do they get there? What will it take for the Pacers to increase their PPG by three points? Can it be done while maintaining an elite defense?

To answer this question, the makeup of the new roster needs to be examined. While no one can say for sure how players will improve or regress, and no one knows how a player will fit into a new offensive scheme, these next few facts and figures will make a case for each player to “generally be better” or “generally be worse” (or generally about the same) than their offensive performance and/or the offensive performance of their predecessor last year.

Jeff Teague: He’s replacing George Hill as the starting PG, who last season put up 12.1 PPG and 3.5 APG. Meanwhile, Teague put up 15.9 PPG and 5.9 APG. Basic math will tell you that his offensive production will generally be better than Hill’s, but a bigger curiosity lies in how his aggressive style of play will affect the ball-handling Paul George and Monta Ellis.

Teague was fourth in the league in drives per game last season (11.1), but passed the ball rather than finishing at the hoop on 36.3% of those drives. If he can create open looks for shooters like George and C.J. Miles with his attacking nature, that’s great. If he takes away opportunities from such players, that’s not so great.

Monta Ellis: Ellis should presumably be the returning starting shooting guard for the Pacers next year, as there has no been no indication of the contrary. He averaged a solid 13.8 PPG and 4.7 APG last season, but it seems as if he is the likeliest candidate to take a step back next year.

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With the addition of Teague comes the subtraction of ball availability for Ellis. In his role as a pseudo-point guard last year, Ellis racked up 391 points off of possessions where he was the primary ball-handler. That total was good for 23rd in the NBA, and first on the Pacers (George finished 27th in the NBA with 348 points).

The odds of Teague being forced into a passive offensive role are slim, and the odds of the ball being George’s hands less than it was last year is even slimmer, so it’s fair to estimate that, simply due to another mouth needing to be fed, Ellis will generally be worse when it comes to raw offensive numbers next year.

Paul George: One of the most fascinating storylines for this upcoming season is where George will land in terms of rank amongst the elite NBA players today.

Another year out from his horrifying injury, George is entering his prime at a time where he’s been given plenty of offensive tools to help him. George likely won’t see the ball in his hands any less than he did last year, though the addition of Teague to the team may change the way George utilizes his time with the rock.

When George was in isolation situations last year, he did not fare very well. He shot 34.4% in such plays, while only scoring .81 points a possession. In a 100-possession game, George’s isolation’s would lead to 81 points, which is less than 105, if my math is correct.

The addition of Teague should lead to George having less pressure to create points on his own, as Teague dishes him the ball on drives for nice catch and shoot scenarios.

Given that his new point guard compliments him offensively and there’s a 0% chance his role from last year is reduced, it’s likely that George will generally be better offensively next year.

Thaddeus Young: No words are necessary to tell you that Young will generally be better than Lavoy Allen, who started 28 games for the Pacers at power forward last season — not to mention three playoff games.

A better question would be: will a frontcourt featuring Young and Myles Turner be better than one featuring Turner and Ian Mahinmi, who is now a Wizard? Based on pure numbers, it seems as if the answer is yes.

Young averaged 15.1 PPG playing alongside undoubtedly a better offensive center than Turner in Brook Lopez. Mahinmi on the other hand, while a solid rim protector among other traits, scored his career high during the first round series against the Raptors last season. That career high was 22. That’s the only time Mahinmi has ever scored 20 points in a game.

Young reached that mark 12 times just in last season alone. But outside of his own scoring potential, Young opens up a screen game that should complement George and other scorers well- a screen game that Turner struggled with in his opening year.

All across the board, Young spells better offense for the frontcourt.

Myles Turner: Turner will be entering somewhat new territory as the presumptive center nominee for the Pacers National Committee in 2016-17, but the obvious answer for a young player like him on the rise is that he’ll generally be better offensively next season.

This is partly due to having gained experience, partly due to him stepping into a more comfortable role, and partly due to having the starting position for (hopefully) all 82 games.

Take note of this stat: Young finished fifth in the league in FGM from less than ten feet last season. Mahinmi finished 43rd. With attention on Young around the rim offensively, Turner should be able to spread out and make mid-range jumpers, the shot which produced 38.1% of his points last season.

The Bench: Considering most of these guys will put up scoring outputs in the range of two to eight points, this group will be lumped together.

All of the aspects of the team which should help Paul George this season (better point guard play from Teague, better screen action from Young) should also help C.J. Miles, who also won’t have to suffer through guarding the opposing team’s power forward next season like he did last year.

Al Jefferson, one of the best offensive centers in the past decade, immediately brings offense to the rotational frontcourt. His 12 PPG in a season where he primarily came off the bench will be much appreciated in Indiana, though his mentoring of Turner may be even more valuable. The only worry with him is durability. Aaron Brooks stepping into the backup point guard position is a mystery, though the sentiment among most people is that anything is an upgrade from what Ty Lawson showed us last year. The defense of Solomon Hill will be missed much more than his offense, though the Pacers didn’t work on their wing rotation at all in the offseason. Trusting Stuckey to bounce back may be a mistake, and not adding any type of “catch and shoot” player could arguably be a misuse of the other new offensive pieces the Pacers acquired this offseason.

Aaron Brooks stepping into the backup point guard position is a mystery, though the sentiment among most people is that anything is an upgrade from what Ty Lawson showed us last year. The defense of Solomon Hill will be missed much more than his offense, though the Pacers didn’t work on their wing rotation at all in the offseason. Trusting Stuckey to bounce back may be a mistake, and not adding any type of “catch and shoot” player could arguably be a misuse of the other new offensive pieces the Pacers acquired this offseason.

The defense of Solomon Hill will be missed much more than his offense, though the Pacers didn’t work on their wing rotation at all in the offseason. Trusting Stuckey to bounce back may be a mistake, and not adding any type of “catch and shoot” player could arguably be a misuse of the other new offensive pieces the Pacers acquired this offseason.

Trusting Stuckey to bounce back may be a mistake, and not adding any type of “catch and shoot” player could arguably be a misuse of the other new offensive pieces the Pacers acquired this offseason.

However, with some of the eggs that that 2015-16 bench dropped, especially in the postseason, it probably won’t get much worse. It’s safe to say that the bench will be generally the same, if not better offensively.

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