ESPN’s panel of experts has predicted a 45 win year for the new look Indiana Pacers. Are they too low on this year’s team?
ESPN just released their expert NBA predictions for next year, and they expect decent things for next year’s Pacers. The panel didn’t find the Pacers to be world beaters, but it did predict a playoff finish and an identical record for the Pacers as last year: 45-37. That would put Indiana, by their forecast, as finishing as tied for fourth place, with the Detroit Pistons, in a weakened East.
If we take last year’s prediction into account, ESPN was 6 wins and a playoff birth off when it comes to Indiana. So that means this year’s Pacers team should win 51 games and a title, right?
Maybe they will be closer this year, and we should let go of last season’s pessimistic prediction. It is important to remember, of course, that these predictions are really just a shot in the dark, especially when they are made months before the season begins.
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All that being said, this is a sound prediction for the Pacers.
The current roster is better on paper than last year’s squad, but this is still a team in transition, and there’s no way of telling how the pieces fit without seeing the team in action.
They will absolutely be smaller and faster with Thad Young and Jeff Teague replacing Ian Mahinmi and George Hill in the starting lineup, but that doesn’t guarantee improvement. ESPN rightfully pointed out that, while Jeff Teague is a former All-Star and a slightly starrier name, George Hill has actually had a higher real plus minus (RPM) than Teague for three consecutive years.
Hill is certainly a better defender on the whole, and his outside shooting has been remarkably consistent. Teague has questions when it comes to both of those, even if he is a much better facilitator and gets to the rim at a much, much higher rate. (When looking at recent numbers, it’s also worth noting that Teague was apparently playing with a torn patella for all or most of the 2015-16 season.)
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Overall, this prediction seems about accurate. I expect the Pacers to maybe win a few more games, but it seems unlikely that they break the 50 win mark right away, unless Myles Turner makes a huge leap defensively.
The more salient part of this prediction is the playoff seeding. The Pacers absolutely have a shot to earn home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, and this would be a huge win in the rebuilding process, as well as the pitch to keep Paul George in a Pacers uniform. I think the Pacers win 47 or 48 games, but if ESPN is that close, it would have to be considered a win for them.