The Indiana Pacers defense was near the top of the league in 2015-16, but defense in the coming season is going to be bad … right?
Under Frank Vogel, the Indiana Pacers have had an exceptional defense. The scheme has typically been very vanilla, predicated around sound positioning, forcing teams into low-quality shots, and funneling any and all rim attacks into a rim-protecting, often-verticality-proficient center.
Pacers fans who are used to this kind of defense — big, long guards, sound, safe play on the perimeter — have some justified concern about the team’s current (projected) starting lineup for 2016-17 of Jeff Teague, Monta Ellis, Paul George, Thad Young, and Myles Turner.
Everyone outside of PG is generally small for their position — either in weight, height, or both —and the bulk of this unit has not been heralded as “good” defenders. However, we may need to look at this defense in a different light.
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This Pacers team, as constructed, is probably not going to lead the league in defensive points allowed, or points per possession, or any of the other numbers Pacers fans are used to pointing to. Larry Bird, however, has been telling anyone who will listen that he wants to play faster, and that this can benefit the defense as well.
The Pacers current, best five-man unit employs a band of four ball thieves and Myles Turner, who has the chance to be an elite shot blocker. All four of Jeff Teague, Monta Ellis, Paul George, and Thad Young had a steal rate of over 2% last year, and all have been near 3% in recent years. Contrast that to George Hill (1.6%) and Lavoy Allen (0.8%), and it’s easy to see the beginning of something. Throw in the fact that Myles Turner put up a block rate of over 5%, and this defense could be capable, but not in the ways Pacers fans are used to.
This unit is going to give up points. Unless assistant coach Dan Burke, a holdover from the Vogel regime who will sit on Nate McMillan’s bench, really is a magician, this team will be lucky to stay in the top 15 in points allowed. This team could become a turnover-creating machine, though, making even more progress than last year’s squad did in that regard. And live ball turnovers can often present easier scoring opportunities.
If you squint hard enough, there’s a pressuring, ball-hawking defense in there, behind the size concerns and lack of individual defensive accolades. This is all predicated on Myles Turner being able to stay out of foul trouble, which means Teague/Ellis/PG need to stay in front of their men and gamble smartly.
Turner is only 20 years old and has less than 1,400 NBA minutes under his belt — he’s going to commit some curious fouls. The other four starters — all NBA vets — need to protect him as well. If Turner can’t stay out of foul trouble, it’s likely the whole thing falls apart. The Pacers have no rim protection to speak of behind him, only Al Jefferson and Lavoy Allen (or Rakeem Christmas, if you believe he has a shot to play small ball 5), and those players are not going to give you protection at the rim.
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If Turner can protect the rim while staying out of foul trouble, this defense could surprise a lot of people out there. If not, it’s going to be a long year for Pacers fans.