Analyzing Pacers Free Agent Options: Barnes, Deng, Parsons, Rondo, Lin and the Best of the Rest
By William Furr
The Indiana Pacers need to make a splash in free agency this summer if they hope to crawl their way back into contention, and these are a few of the second-tier options available.
The Pacers — like literally half of the teams in the NBA — will potentially have room under the salary cap to offer a maximum deal to any free agent on the market.
With half of the league having space, there will obviously be a bidding war for any top level talent, but a Pacers team with Paul George coming off his best postseason (and being the best player in the first round of the NBA Playoffs) and a winning culture shouldn’t be counted out of the derby for the bulk of the free agents out there.
We will be skipping over Kevin Durant and LeBron James, who the Pacers should literally give whatever is necessary if they’re willing to come to Indiana, and looking at the positives and negatives of some of the guys on the next tier of free agency.
So far, I’ve ranked the options:
Each of those options will be highly coveted and hard to sign, however. The best odds are on both Nic Batum and Mike Conley returning to their current teams while Horford will have suitors from coast-to-coast
So today, we will take a look at the best of the rest, in no particular order…
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Harrison Barnes
24 Years Old
Last Year: 11.7 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 38.3% 3pt shooting
Career: 10.1 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 37.6% 3pt shooting
Prior to the playoffs, Harrison Barnes was projected as a borderline max contract guy moving forward. That would pay him around $23 million per year.
However, Barnes had an uneven playoffs, capped off by a lackluster NBA Finals. Barnes shot 35% for the series, 31% from behind the arc, 60% from the free-throw line — quite possibly costing himself a ton of money by appearing to shrink from the moment.
If Barnes is closer to the $15 million dollar range, he’d be an ideal fit as a stretch 4 for the Pacers, leaving them money to possibly resign Ian Mahinmi and find a little back court depth or shooting. If the Pacers can get him at a reasonable price, a front line of Paul George/Harrison Barnes/Myles Turner could develop even further together and become a monster.
Other than the price and question marks about his talent, the other hold up is that he is a restricted free agent. The Pacers have long had a policy against going after other teams’ restricted free agents.
Chandler Parsons
27 Years Old
Last Year: 13.7 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 49% shooting, 41% 3pt shooting
Career: 14.3 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 47% shooting, 38% 3pt shooting
Chandler Parsons is probably the player Larry Bird was hoping Chase Budinger could become when he returned from injury.
Parsons himself has struggled with his health, and has a recent knee surgery under his belt. Despite the oft injured designation, Parsons has played at least 63 games every year, and is a near All-Star when healthy.
Parsons could come in and play as a small ball power forward next to Paul George, and slide up in super big lineups to play the shooting guard or small forward next to PG. Parsons would give the Pacers a lot of flexibility and is an excellent shooter, but carries injury risks, and is reportedly looking for more than $20 million per season.
In the $15-$18 million range, Parsons is a great fit for the Pacers. Anything more becomes very questionable.
Rajon Rondo
30 Years Old
Last Year: 11.9 ppg, 11.7 apg, 45% shooting, 37% 3pt shooting, 2.0 spg
Career: 11.0 ppg, 8.7 apg, 47% shooting, 29% 3pt shooting, 1.8 spg
Rajon Rondo has been a target of Larry Bird’s for a number of years. At his best, he battled tooth and nail against LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, and was a crucial part of the Boston Celtics championship team.
At his worst, he’s using unacceptable slurs towards referees, sulking, and putting up empty stats while wrecking team chemistry.
For the right team, he could be a huge, cost-effective pickup. For the wrong team, he’s a wasted, sullen chunk of cap space.
Luol Deng
31 Years Old
Last Year: 12.3 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 34% 3pt shooting
Career: 15.5 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 33% 3pt shooting
Luol Deng would seem to be nearing the end of his ability to be an effective starter, with 823 regular season games under his belt. To make matters worse, most of those came under Tom Thibodeau, a coach notorious for riding his starters hard, and Deng — for his 12 year career — is averaging over 35 minutes per game.
However, Deng seemed very comfortable and healthy in his combo forward role with Miami last year, and brings a lot of what the Pacers need in a stretch 4. He shoots the 3 reasonably well, he credibly defends the 2-3-4 spots, and isn’t a disaster on the glass.
If he’s willing to leave Miami without getting massively overpaid, he would be a good get for Pacers. It’s all about years with Deng though. Logic (and history) say his play will begin to decline very soon.
Jordan Clarkson
24 Years Old
Last Year: 15.5 ppg, 2.4 apg, 35% 3pt shooting
Career: 14 ppg, 2.9 apg, 34% 3pt shooting
Nobody is really sure what Jordan Clarkson is yet. He has shown he can score when given the opportunity, but he’s yet to play on a good team to see his fit, and it’s not readily apparently whether he’s a point guard or a shooting guard.
He is also a restricted free agent, but the Lakers appear to have their eyes on big money targets, and may be reticent to match an offer on Clarkson, who nominally plays the same position as recently lottery pick DeAngelo Russell.
Paying Clarkson anything more than $10 million-ish a year would seem to be a gamble, as he doesn’t have much experience and has looked to be a truly atrocious defender.
Jeremy Lin
27 Years Old
Last Year: 11.7 ppg, 3 apg, 34% 3pt shooting
Career: 11.7 ppg, 4.4 apg, 35% 3pt shooting
From undrafted D-Leaguer to Linsanity to vanishing under Mike D’Antonio to his return with the Charlotte Hornets, Jeremy Lin has had a tumultuous ride in the NBA.
He does appear to have found his niche, however, as a score-first, sixth-man combo guard. The Pacers might have too many of those already, but Lin is a better shooter than either Rodney Stuckey or Monta Ellis, and can be a good facilitator in the right situation.
Lin will probably make $10-$12 million per year, and if he can be had at the low end of that, would be a good steal for the Pacers.
Marvin Williams
30 Years Old
Last Year: 11.7 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 40% 3pt shooting
Career: 10.5 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 35% 3pt shooting
Marvin Williams had a resurgent year with the Charlotte Hornets last year, having his best season since probably the 2008-09 year. If last year’s Marvin Williams is the the player he will be throughout his next contract, he will earn the probably $15 million that’s going to come his way.
It seems much more likely that this was a contract-year spike, and he’ll revert to be a serviceable backup big man with a bit of range.