Analyzing Indiana Pacers Free Agent Options: Al Horford
By William Furr
The Indiana Pacers need to make a splash in free agency this summer if they hope to crawl their way back into contention, and this is the case for why Al Horford should be their target.
The Indiana Pacers — like roughly half of the teams in the NBA — will potentially have enough room under the salary cap this offseason to offer a maximum deal to any free agent on the market.
With half of the league having space, there will obviously be a bidding war for any top level talent, but a Pacers team with Paul George coming off his best postseason and a winning culture shouldn’t be counted out of the derby for the bulk of the free agents out there.
They can’t attract the biggest fish, so we won’t bother seriously discussing the possibility of Kevin Durant and LeBron James joining Indiana. But over the weeks to come we will analyze the positives and negatives of some of the guys on the next tier of free agency.
Mike Conley was my choice as the best available combination of fit, talent, and age, followed by Nic Batum.
Today, we’re taking a look at option number 3, a guy named …
Al Horford
30 years old
Unrestricted Free Agent
Atlanta Hawks
Last Year: 15.2 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 3.1 rpg,1.5 bpg, 50.5% shooting, 34.3% 3-pt, 19.4 PER
Career: 14.3 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 2.7 apg,1.2 bpg, 53.5% shooting, 34% 3-pt, 19.1 PER
Positives
Outside of the LeBron James/Kevin Durant class, Al Horford is the best free agent available. He’s a multi-talented big man who can man the 4 or 5 spot. Horford rebounds well, is a smart passer, and can score in a variety of ways in the post and stretching beyond the 3 point line. He has shot over 50% for every year of his career except his rookie season, when he shot only 49.9%.
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He is also an excellent defender at both spots, capable of moving his feet in space against smaller players for short periods as well as banging with true big men down low. He’s played 158 out of a possible 164 games in the past 2 seasons, and is a true jack of all trades.
There is very little Horford doesn’t do well.
Negatives
Horford is 30 years old, and has 652 games under his belt. Coming into his 10th season, he is eligible for the 10 years of service max contract, which means he’d be starting at about $30 million per year. He would be making approximately 36 million in the final year of his contract, when he would be 34 years old.
This is probably his last max contract opportunity, making him (in theory) more likely to stay in Atlanta, as they can offer him a 5th year with bigger raises.
Signing Horford would also mean renouncing Ian Mahinmi, and the Pacers would still only have a few million left under the cap, leaving them left to fill out the bench and rotation with only very-low and minimum-salary guys.
Fit
Al Horford’s skill set makes him a fit nearly anywhere in the NBA. He plays two positions and does nearly everything well on a basketball court. He doesn’t fit great with the Pacers timeline, however, and presents a tough choice with Myles Turner.
The organization views Turner as a center who is best used near the basket where he can best utilize his exceptional shot-blocking abilities. Turner would almost certainly be a power forward next to Horford, who is currently much more equipped to handle banging with the NBA’s bigs.
Signing Horford would mean that Turner’s development as a center was probably ending, and he may not be mobile enough to stay with small-ball power forwards, an area where he was badly exposed last year.
Offensively, adding Horford would be a huge gain. The Pacers would wind up with 5-man units who all have reasonable 3 point range. Defensively, Horford is a better player than Turner, but the fit between the two would take a lot of finagling.
Verdict
If Horford is willing and prepared to be a Pacer, the franchise should offer him whatever he wants and team him with Paul George to form a devastating 1-2 punch. The fit with Turner would take work and time, but Horford is a perennial All-Star who would instantly make the team much better. This is one of those times where talent trumps immediate fit.
Sign him, figure the rest out later.