Analyzing the Pacers Free Agent Options: Mike Conley
By William Furr
The Indiana Pacers — like roughly half of the teams in the NBA — will potentially have enough room under the salary cap this offseason to offer a maximum deal to any free agent on the market.
With half of the league having space, there will obviously be a bidding war for any top level talent, but a Pacers team with Paul George coming off his best postseason and a winning culture shouldn’t be counted out of the derby for the bulk of the free agents out there.
They can’t attract the biggest fish, so we won’t bother seriously discussing the possibility of Kevin Durant and LeBron James joining Indiana. But over the weeks to come we will analyze the positives and negatives of some of the guys on the next tier of free agency.
And it seems clear that the best combination of fit, talent, and age is …
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Mike Conley
28 years old
unrestricted free agent
Memphis Grizzlies
Last Year: 15.3 ppg, 6.1 apg, 1.2 spg, 19.3 PER
Career: 13.6 ppg, 5.6 apt, 1.5 spg, 16.7 PER
Positives
Conley is a perennial near All-Star, and a “true” point guard. He is still well within his prime at 28 years old, and brings most of the skills that George Hill offers at a similar or higher level — while being much more capable of leading an offense. He is the rare combination of a floor general and top-tier defender who can also be dynamic at times when he calls his own number.
Conley is a career 37.3% shooter from deep, a capable second or third scoring option, and a very good passer. He’s had an All-Star level Player Efficiency Rating (PER) for four consecutive years (18.3, 20.0, 18.6, 19.4). For reference, Paul George’s last three full seasons are 16.8, 20.1, and 20.9.
Conley is a very, very good player.
Like Paul George, he is a “two way” player, whatever that phrase is worth. Individual defense is very difficult to measure, but most metrics rate Conley as solidly above average, which rings true to the eye test. Moreover, his teammates and scouts all tout his feel for the game on both ends, which should mean he can join any team and instantly lift their ability to compete.
Conley also went to high school at Lawrence North in Indianapolis, which gives him at least some connection to the area.
Negatives
While Conley is widely considered to be a good defender, he is also smaller and lighter than George Hill. His size is not a huge detriment in general — a 6’1 point guard is not unusual — but the Pacers have enjoyed a general size and length advantage during George Hill’s tenure, and would lose that advantage.
Conley has also spent his career working with slow, plodding big men in Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, and switching to a (supposed) fast, higher-octane offense would be an adjustment for him.
Fit
Mike Conley would seem to be what Larry Bird is looking for in a point guard. He is a fast, slick-passing, true point guard who can penetrate and dish with the best of them.
If the Pacers signed Conley, they would have multiple options as far as the lineup went. He would obviously be the new starting point guard. If the Pacers kept George Hill, Hill could tag team with Rodney Stuckey off the bench to give the Pacers an aggressive, attacking set of combo guards, assuming he was willing to come off the bench.
Hill could also start at the shooting guard (my preferred concept), giving the Pacers up to five players with 3-point range in the starting lineup (Conley, Hill, Paul George, a stretch 4, and Myles Turner potentially). Again, this is assuming that a veteran starter (Monta Ellis) is willing to take the role of a sixth man, but Monta Ellis, at this point in his career, would be best served leading bench units. Monta is more likely to be effective if he has offensive freedom as “the guy”, rather than deferring to Paul George.
That leaves the Pacers with 3 scorers in the seond unit (Monta Ellis, Rodney Stuckey, and C.J. Miles). There has been concern that George Hill is too small to guard shooting guards, but he’s the same height and actually slightly heavier than Monta Ellis, per basketball-reference.com. Hill is also longer and stronger than Ellis, and is closer to a shooting guard in stature, on top of being an excellent defender.
Verdict
Throw max money at this man.
Conley would be in line for a salary of approximately $25.9 million in the first year of a new deal. To make this work, the Pacers would need to renounce their “Bird rights” to Ian Mahinmi (which means he would likely be gone). The upside would be the team having roughly $32.4 million available — leaving them around $6 million to sign others after Conley.
This still leaves a massive hole at the power forward position with not a lot of cap space to fill it, but Conley instantly makes this team significantly better, especially if George Hill stays on. So Larry Bird could worry about making a “perfect” roster the following Summer (or working some trades).
Regardless, focusing on such issues obscures the big takeaway: Mike Conley is the best fit, talent, and long-term option available on the market for the Pacers this Summer. They should do anything they can to get him and figure the rest out later.
Once you have a foundation of Paul George, Conley, and Myles Turner, the surrounding pieces can work themselves out in time.