This is the second part of our Indiana Pacers Draft Preview series. For an overview, check out this Draft Primer. For deeper-dive analysis on the potential players that Indiana may select, check out break downs of wings and bigs.
Larry Bird has long held an affinity for playmaking guards. Perhaps this goes back to the late 1990s when he coached a fantastic Indiana team that really had one basic weakness — they lacked a creator on the perimeter. Fans of those Pacers teams remember agonizing over the team’s collective inability, outside of a young Jalen Rose, to create their own shot.
In 2012, Bird reportedly fired former Pacers executive David Morway for failing to complete deals involving O.J. Mayo and Jamal Crawford. Over the past two offseasons, Bird has brought in both Rodney Stuckey and Monta Ellis, two guys with overlapping skill sets that (theoretically) can create their own shots. Bird also took a gamble on Ty Lawson near of the end of this past season, hoping to add some spark to a team that needed it. Even the selection of Joe Young in the second round last year was emblematic of a guy that wanted his team to be able to create more off the dribble.
The Pacers probably have more pressing needs to fill this offseason. While Monta Ellis and Rodney Stuckey weren’t tremendous in 2015-16, the Pacers would probably be better served to upgrade the three/four position, especially if they are going to let Ian Mahinmi walk and move Myles Turner to the five. However, many still believe that George Hill would be better playing off the ball offensively, and that the Pacers need a true creator in the starting lineup.
The following are the four top playmakers that may be available when the Pacers draft slot arises. For a full breakdown of all the players who may be available, check our official Indiana Pacers Draft Primer.
Wade Baldwin
- Height: 6′ 4″
- Weight: 202 lbs
- Wingspan: 6′ 11.75″ (!!!)
- Max Vertical: 38″
- Big Board Ranking: Washburn – 10th, O’Connor – 7th, Draft Express – 14th, Chad Ford – 18th, Sports Illustrated – 18th, NBADraft.net – 32nd, Doug Gottlieb – 19th
- Realistic Best Case Scenario: George Hill
As you can see, Baldwin’s stock is all over the map. Intelligent people have differing opinions on the Vanderbilt point guard, mostly because of his inconsistent play in college.
On the positive side of things, Baldwin possesses some of the most impressive physical tools in the draft. Standing 6’4″ with a ridiculous wingspan of almost 7′, Baldwin should have little problem defending both guard positions in the NBA. He’s strong, quick, and explosive, featuring a 38″ vertical and quick hands.
Defensively, Baldwin projects to be a plus-defender at the next level, and could be a terror on the right team. One could envision the Pacers playing him next to George Hill and Paul George with great success as all three defenders effortlessly navigate screens and switch on the fly.
Offensively, Baldwin has been able to use his size and athleticism well so far in his career, even “shutting down” a high school dunk contest with the help of Karl Anthony Towns. Baldwin is a very good shooter off the catch, and already has NBA range on his jumper.
Perhaps most promising is Baldwin’s ability to operate out of the pick and roll. Baldwin uses his length and court vision to create passing angles out of difficult positions. He tends to read the defense well, whether they trap or duck under the screen.
Conversely, Baldwin lacks the shiftiness and handle that you would like to see in your NBA point guard. It’s not that he’s a bad ball-handler, but like George Hill, he is seldom going to create offense for himself in a straight-up isolation scenario, unless he is able to blow by his defender.
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Baldwin’s dribbling mechanics are poor, and combined with his above average height for a point guard, his high dribbling has made him something of a turnover machine. This lack of precision with the ball serves to take away some of his athletic advantages on the offensive side of the ball. One might legitimately wonder if Baldwin would be better served playing off the ball for most of his career, and if this is the case, he may never turn into a consistent starter.
I think that Baldwin is the best playmaker on the board for the Pacers, and I love his fit with Indiana. Defensively, he would be an immediate upgrade over Monta Ellis, and with time, his shooting would space the floor for Paul George and Myles Turner.
Further, his similarities with George Hill would be a comically ironic torture for all of the fans that hate the Hometown Hero for reasons such as, “he’s not a true point guard because he doesn’t get a lot of assists.” However, if mock drafts reflect reality, Baldwin is probably the least likely player to still be available at #20.
DeAndre Bembry
- Height: 6′ 5.75″
- Weight: 207 lbs.
- Wingspan: 6′ 9.25″
- Max Vertical: 38″
- Big Board Ranking: Washburn – 12th, O’Connor – 13th, Draft Express – 27th, Chad Ford – 20th, Sports Illustrated – 24th, NBADraft.net – 31st, Doug Gottlieb – 11th
- Realistic Best Case Scenario: A Less Mercurial Lance Stephenson
Like Baldwin, Bembry’s stock is also quite disparate. Doug Gottlieb loves the guy’s potential, while others are unsure whether he will ever stick in the NBA. Regardless, he’s got a great afro.
Bembry is really a sort of “Swiss Army Knife” on the offensive side of the floor. While at St. Josephs, he seamlessly transitioned between the point guard through power forward slots, depending on matchups and team needs.
No matter where he played, Bembry excelled as a passer. He averaged 4.7 assists per 40 minutes, which was the third highest rate of any wing in the draft. The dude really does have elite court vision, with a hairstyle and playing style that features a flair for the dramatic.
Bembry is the type of player that more enjoys creating for others than himself, but he was still able to average more than 17 points per game for the Hawks in 2015-16.
He also possesses good NBA athleticism. He excelled in the open floor and filled in a lot of gaps for his teams defensively and on the boards. There is so much to like about a prospect that could spend time at the 1, 2, and 3 in the NBA on both ends of the floor.
The jumper. Some scouts feel that Bembry is a little too laid back for their liking, but personally, I see him as a great team player who is willing to survey what his team needs and try to fill in where he can best help.
Really, it’s all about Bembry’s jumper, or lack thereof.
Five years ago, Bembry might have been a top 10 prospect, but in today’s NBA where spacing and shooting are so essential, one really wonders whether he will ever find his niche in the league.
Fundamentally, Bembry’s jumper isn’t helpless. His release is a little slow, and he occasionally flairs his elbow out too far which will make him miss short and to the left. The biggest issue is that he simply doesn’t have a consistent stroke. His shot will look wildly different from possession to possession as it seems like he’s trying to “fix things on the fly.” Bembry only shot 27% from long-range last year, and while he obviously had to take some bad shots due to his role on the team, it’s a massive concern going forward.
If Bembry could fix his jumper, he could be a tremendous pick for whichever team drafts him. The likelihood of drafting an immediate starter at #20 is pretty low, so Bembry could provide some intriguing upside for Larry Bird at a position that will need to be filled as Monta Ellis continues to decline.
Dejounte Murray
- Height: 6′ 5″
- Weight: 162 lbs.
- Wingspan: 6′ 9.5″
- Max Vertical: NA
- Big Board Ranking: Washburn – 14th, O’Connor – 31st, Draft Express – 30th, Chad Ford – 9th, Sports Illustrated – 24th, NBADraft.net – 31st
- Realistic Best Case Scenario: Jamal Crawford
Anyone that watched Dejounte Murray play in the Pac 12 this past season probably came away nonplussed. Murray averaged almost 17 points per game for the Huskies, but shot poorly from long distance and seldom looked comfortable. However, if one can look through the poor coaching and weird fit of Murray’s team, there is a lot to like.
Murray just oozes potential, featuring outstanding physical tools and athleticism. Many scouts have compared him to a taller Jamal Crawford, and it’s not hard to see why.
DraftExpress describes him as an “inefficient volume scorer can go get buckets.” And there is more to Murray’s game than that description might entail.
Murray has tremendous scoring instincts of the “you can’t teach this stuff” variety. Murray is one of the rare players that displays shiftiness at top speeds. Murray has an elite floater in his arsenal already, and navigates defensive players in traffic well. He also possesses above-average court vision and uses his height to see passes that other guards might otherwise miss.
Defensively, Murray uses his length, both as a pesky on-ball defender and in the passing lanes. He averaged almost 2 steals per game for the Huskies as a freshman. Murray’s team was something of a disaster this last year, mostly because of a lack of shooting. Still, Murray was able to make an imprint on both sides of the floor. And he’s also the rare point guard for which you can run set plays for back-door ally-oops.
Like any playground baller, Murray’s decision making is often puzzling at best. Again, the scout that is in love with Murray could easily point to his team situation at Washington and argue that few guards would have been able to thrive in such a system. Still, Murray often forces the issue and can get a little wild at times. While he’s great at avoiding defenders on his way to the basket, when he does encounter a big in the lane, he struggles to finish around and through contact.
Murray’s jump shot is also a work in progress. While he shoots more fluidly than Bembry, there are probably some bigger flaws in his stroke. Bembry’s release is almost painfully slow, and he was blocked on more than one seemingly open, catch-and-shoot jumper last year. Worse, his lower body is just a mess. His feet are often pointed three feet to the left of the basket, causing him to have to wrench his upper body back towards the hoop in order to regain square. He often misses wildly, and hoisted up airballs aplenty as a Husky.
Murray is another high-upside prospect that might potentially be available for the Pacers at #20. His physical tools and unteachable scoring instincts are incredibly enticing. He also projects to be a possible plus-defender if he commits himself on that end. It’s up for Larry Bird to decide whether Murray has an unfixable jump shot.
Denzel Valentine
- Height: 6′ 5.75″
- Weight: 210 lbs.
- Wingspan: 6′ 10.75″
- Max Vertical: 32″
- Big Board Ranking: Washburn – 16th, O’Connor – 27th, Draft Express – 25th, Chad Ford – 23rd, Sports Illustrated – 16th, NBADraft.net – 24th, Doug Gottlieb – 18th
- Realistic Best Case Scenario: Evan Turner
Perhaps no player is as polarizing the 2016 NBA Draft as Denzel Valentine. The former Spartan has every basketball tool you could ever ask for from a player at his position. Yet, his below-average (at best) athleticism is scaring the scouts away in droves.
Monta Ellis would love Denzel Valentine, because he really does have it all. Valentine filled up the stat sheet in every possible way en route to winning National Player of the Year Honors for Tom Izzo in 2015-16.
He averaged 19 points, 8 rebounds, and 8 assists while shooting 44-percent from long distance. To put that in perspective, no player in the college basketball database has ever posted those numbers (the closest players were Penny Hardaway [!!!], Evan Turner , and Michael Anderson ).
Valentine might be the very best passer in the entire draft, depending on how highly one ranks Ben Simmons and Kris Dunn. He shoots the ball fluidly and consistently, and already possesses NBA 3-point range. Defensively, he’s long and strong. He’s got that “grown man strength” that enables him to battle large players well down low.
Perhaps his best trait is his decision making. Valentine served as a primary ball-handler for the Spartans, yet had an outstanding assist to turnover ratio in a defensively minded conference. Valentine is also a born leader with a bit of a mean streak; the Draymond Green comparisons are almost too easy.
No college basketball player has completely controlled every aspect of the game like Valentine since Evan Turner … which … is a good thing?
Really, all of Valentine’s weaknesses can be traced back to one thing: his below-average athleticism. There is real concern that Valentine is simply the kid that was held back in junior high and was able to physically overpower the smaller and younger players in his league.
Will he be able to get into the lane against NBA defenders? Will he be able to finish at the rim against NBA bigs? Most scouts are dubious about Valentine’s prospects, but his skill set is just so enticing.
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Some have wondered whether Valentine could play as a small ball four or five, just like Draymond Green. That’s probably a non-starter though. Valentine is a full two inches shorter than Green, and is 26 pounds lighter as well. If Valentine is unable to overcome his lack of athleticism, his best-case scenario is Evan Turner.
That might be a huge red flag, since most people consider Turner to be a bust. And to be fair, teams definitely want a player better than Turner with the second pick in the draft. However, most teams would be thrilled to draft a player of Turner’s caliber with the 20th pick in the draft, and Valentine is probably already a better shooter than Turner has ever been.
Valentine could potentially fit in quite well with the Pacers because he could hide on the other team’s worst perimeter scorer every game. He would space the floor nicely and operate as a secondary ball-handler and playmaker. Larry Bird will have to decide how much he hated Evan Turner the first time around, and whether he’s willing to join the @JayNilla cycle of hate once again.
Best of the Rest
Demetrius Jackson: spark plug point guard that would thrive in a sixth man role; probably too inconsistent on both ends to be a starting point guard on a playoff team.
Realistic Best Case Scenario: A Poor Man’s Jeff Teague
Tyler Ulis: jet-quick point guard with elite court vision and “Big Shot” instincts; he’s short and skinny, will probably be impossible to play as a part of good defensive lineups.
Realistic Best Case Scenario: Darren Collison