The Pacers Big Problem: Jonas Valanciunas

The Indiana Pacers are leaving Toronto tied at 1 game apiece — but they have a long, uphill road ahead.

In a series many predicted to be a sweep, the Indiana Pacers have put the Raptors on their heels repeatedly.

All-Star DeMar DeRozan looked absolutely broken while not playing a single minute in the 4th quarter, and will probably have nightmares about Paul George waiting around every corner in his house. Kyle Lowry looks like Solomon Hill shooting from deep, and DeMarre Carroll has done almost nothing useful through two games.

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The Pacers have many reasons to feel confident heading back to Indianapolis. They now have home-court advantage and only have to hold serve in the friendly confines of The Fieldhouse to take the series.

However, the Pacers have a problem. A rather large problem. A 7-foot-tall, 255-pound problem to be exact.

His name is Jonas Valanciunas.

Through two games, Valanciunas is eviscerating the Pacers. He’s averaging 17.5 points and 17 rebounds in just 26 minutes per contest. Contrast that to Ian Mahinmi’s 3 points and 4 rebounds, and the magnitude of the problem becomes known.

The only reprieve the Pacers have gotten from JV has been foul trouble. He fouled out of Game 1, and spent some quality time on the pine in Game 2 with fouls as well. The Pacers won’t win this series by giving up 17 and 17 to the Raptors third best player, and might not even win another game that way. They have to find a way to slow the big man’s roll in order to stay competitive moving forward.

Stopping Jonas Valanciunas After the Pick and Roll

The Raptors have run the same play, over and over and over again, to expose the Pacers defense. The play starts with a high screen and roll, sometimes set by Valanciunas, sometimes not, leading into a screen by Valanciunas while the paint is devoid of Pacers defenders.

The Pacers big man in this situation — usually Ian Mahinmi or Myles Turner — is left on an island. As George Hill/Monta Ellis trail the play after going over the screen, the big man has a decision to make. They must either step up, stop the guard penetration, and rely on to slow down a rolling JV, or sag back and try to guard both the rolling big and the attacking guard.

Frank Vogel’s team defense has been built on conservative play from his big men. Roy Hibbert and Ian Mahinmi traditionally drop back when defending the screener, giving up the midrange jumper and relying on their length (and backside help defense) to cover the rolling big man. But the Raptors have done a phenomenal job of pulling all the help defenders away from the basket, leaving Ian and Myles Turner exposed in space.

Jonas Valanciunas has lived on a steady diet of lobs, alley oops, and easy rebounds. He has often found himself with only empty lane between himself and the basket, while Mahinmi/Turner and helplessly sealed behind him and Monta Ellis crashing down too late to be useful. The Raptors have identified this and are running it over and over again, as long as they can keep JV on the floor.

The Pacers have to adjust moving forward. There are a few ways they can do this. None are appealing, but they can’t continue to give Valanciunas whatever he wants at the rim.

Option 1: Trap the Ball Handler and Rotate in Advance

This option would be decidedly anti-Frank Vogel in process. It would involve Mahinmi and Turner hedging hard as Valanciunas sets the screen, and keeping their hands high to block the passing lanes. As the big man bodies up the attacking Raptor, the trailing Pacers guard traps from behind. The weak side defender drops to the basket, and Toronto is forced to kick the ball back out behind the arc.

Pros: This would almost certainly surprise the Raptors, for at least a few possessions. They probably won’t have be game planning for this from the Pacers, and would need to adjust on the fly. This would stop the immediate issue of Valanciunas getting free runs. The Pacers quick hands would probably generate a few extra turnovers from harried passing by the Raptors.

Cons: Mahinmi and Turner likely have very little recent experience with this strategy, and would likely be uncomfortable in executing it, as would the Pacers guards. The Pacers would be helping off 3-point shooters, opening the Raptors shooters up to get into a rhythm. The Raptors would have two shooters with only one defender, forcing the Pacers to rotate even more quickly than they are used to.

Verdict: Unlikely.

Option 2: Have Guards Go Under the Screens

This option also be in flagrant disregard of Frank Vogel’s defensive tenets. Having the guards go under the screens would dare Kyle Lowry and Cory Joseph to shoot 3s off the bounce, while keeping closer tabs on Jonas Valanciunas closer.

Pros: This allows the Pacers regain control of the lane. The big men have to help much less, and Valanciunas would have no daylight to the lane more often than not. This also allows the other Pacers defenders to stay home on Toronto’s 3 point shooters.

Cons: Kyle Lowry and Cory Joseph 3s for days. Leaving two solid shooters wide open behind the arc is rarely a good plan.

Verdict: Nope.

Option 3: Change Nothing, Execute Better

Now we find an old Frank Vogel tactic. This option puts all the pressure on the pick and roll participants. Mahinmi and Turner have to intrinsically know that they likely don’t have help behind them, and must show hard at the guard, then scramble back to the roll man instantly.

Pros: This is the defense the Pacers players know and have executed the most all season. Turner and Mahinmi don’t have to try to learn a new system in the hothouse of the playoffs, and the Pacers can focus on what they know.

Cons: The Raptors are absolutely destroying this defense, and will continue to attack it until the Pacers prove they can stop it.

Verdict: Yup, sounds like Frank Vogel to me.

Learning from the Past

If there’s anything Pacers fans should’ve learned from Frank Vogel’s tenure, it’s that he trusts his systems and his players. Ian Mahinmi and Myles Turner are both struggling to defend the screen and roll, and both are now nursing sore backs, but I wouldn’t expect to see any massive changes between Games 2 and 3.

The Pacers might make small tweaks, but I would expect the overall strategy to stay the same and the onus to be put on the bigs to recovery quicker, and the guards to navigate the screens more cleanly.