The Reason for the Pacers Late-Game Struggles

The late-game struggles of the Indiana Pacers are rooted in not only offensive but defensive shortcomings.

Perhaps the most frustrating aspect of this Indiana Pacers season has been the fact that no one can quite pinpoint their downfalls to any specific part of the team.

Paul George has often looked great in his first full season back from injury, the bench has been questionable at times but still can produce (especially with newcomer Ty Lawson), and it’s hard to criticize coaching when Frank Vogel has a resume of stats like this one.

But what’s equally frustrating are the things we actually can see. And what we see is this team collapses late in games — a lot.

Yaron Weitzman of SB Nation recently broke down the team’s late-game struggles, and the Pacers have lost 20 games this season where they’ve led at any point in the fourth quarter. 20! With the Pacers current record sitting at 42-37, imagine what their record could be like if they could even go .500 in those close games?

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As Weitzman notes, the Pacers are also 18-21 in games that are within 3 points in the final minute this season. That can be slightly improved, but games that close are often tossups in the NBA, whether it be due to officiating or simply missing a shot late. Missing shots late seems to be the Pacers’ specialty this year, as they’re shooting 4% in one-possession games with 10 seconds or less to go.

In one respect, the problem isn’t necessarily finishing the job — it’s the frequency in which these situations occur. The reason their late-game performances are able to be scrutinized so easily is because of how often they happen. Winning late in games in tough, regardless of the team. The Pacers haven’t performed well late, sure, but that’d all be moot if more than just half of your games could be decided before the final minute.

The most recent instance of this in a loss was last week’s contest against the Bulls. A crucial game with playoff implications at the time, the Pacers had an opportunity on their home court to put the Bulls in a really bad spot. Fortunately, the Bulls have put themselves in a bad spot since then, but there’s nothing good you can take out of losing a game on a defensive possession like this.

The Pacers offense has been concerning in late games, but it’s defense that really kills them in the final minutes, as Weitzman noted.

"Indiana’s offensive struggles pale in comparison to the numerous defensive breakdowns the Pacers seem to commit every time there’s a close game."

The numbers are ugly: The Pacers are giving nearly 7 more points per 100 possessions than normal in the final 5 minutes of 5-point games, per Weitzman, which is puzzling. The Pacers are usually no slouches on defense, and having two (roughly) 7-footers in your lineup should help late in games. But it hasn’t produced results.

The good news is, the Pacers seem to be taking steps in the right direction. The addition of Solomon Hill as a late-game defender has seemed to work well, and following that loss (and the subsequent loss to the Magic), the Pacers won three in a row, despite being down in the final minute at New York on the second night of a back-to-back.

While beating the 76ers, Knicks and LeBron-less Cavaliers isn’t necessarily impressive (especially when an 18-point third quarter lead was blown against the 76ers and Knicks), it bodes well for the team’s confidence heading into the playoffs.

The final two games of the regular season are also beyond important. Leading the Pistons only by half a game for the 7th spot in the East (with the tiebreaker), the next few games will be the difference between probably getting swept in the playoffs (Cavs) and possibly having a chance at making some first-round noise (Raptors).

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But many playoff games are not won in the first 47 minutes — even more so when you’re playing a top team in the league. The Pacers will have to bring it together late if they want any chance at picking up wins this postseason. That’s easier said then done, but when your superstar is feeling good, anything is possible.