Myles Turner Hits the Rookie Wall Hard

NBA defenses have adjusted to Myles Turner’s shooting, leading to a slump that caused Frank Vogel to take him out of the starting lineup for the Indiana Pacers.

As the regular season comes to a close, it is hard to precisely judge how Myles Turner’s season has gone. He’s broken his hand and missed a month worth of games before working his way into the starting lineup and earning Rookie of the Month honors. But as February became March, things were no longer going as smoothly for the now 20-year-old rookie. After averaging 13.4 ppg the month before, Turner’s scoring sank into single-digits (9.5) before rising back up to 10 a game in the Pacers two games so far this month. He even lost his position in the starting lineup.

The rookie wall is real, and Myles Turner found his. Opponents have gotten enough film on the rookie to slow him down.

Literally.

We knew coming into this season that Turner had the tools to become an offensive weapon, but needed time to mature and adjust to the size and strength of big men in the NBA. Both before and after his injury, we saw how Myles’ quick release allowed him to get open shots as his defenders were too far away to cause the rookie trouble. In February, 14.1% of his shots came within the first six seconds of the shot clock, often with less than two dribbles. But since March began only 7% of his shots have been taken that quickly, and now 8% of the time he’s dribbled it two times or more.

Before defense’s caught on to what Turner was capable of, he’d often slip away from defenders for uncontested shots or easy shots near the rim. One of the tools Turner used to advantage was a quick release that often went uncontested due to either lack of respect for his shooting or just being too quick for his defender to contest.

Let’s take a look at some of his shots from earlier in the season and compare how defenses have played him.

When he gets the ball against Paul Millsap in this game on February 5th, the defender looks ready for Turner to try to get closer to the basket. However, Turner’s quick release leaves him looking and unable to contest the shot. Turner’s turnaround was catching defenses off guard more often than not.

Here in a pick and roll play against the Los Angeles Lakers on February 8th, he’s able to keep Julias Randle off balance when he tries to cover George Hill on the pick and roll. Once Randle plants his foot in the preparation of contesting a possible shot, Turner the attacks the rim to get by the defender.

He got another two points less than 30 seconds later when Randle held back to stop a possible drive. Just like with his turnaround shot, Turner wasted little time to get his shot up. Not taking a dribble or even hesitating allows him to take a relatively uncontested shot as the defense didn’t treat him as a threat. This could be because they are a Byron Scott coached Lakers team or teams just didn’t realize Myles’ potential.

However, as the season, as went on, we’ve seen teams game plan for Turner more, and his point totals began to drop.

Against the Portland Trail Blazers on February 28th, you can see that the defense is giving Turner less space that he had when he first joined the starting lineup.

Mason Plumlee sags off of Turner on the pick and roll and is ready both to cover a Monta Ellis drive or a Turner shot. He doesn’t get caught in no man’s land and has his hands up and active against Myles. Turner has the range to hit that shot, but you’re going to be more comfortable with him taking those shots over driving to the basket.

Against the Milwaukee Bucks on March 2nd, Giannis Antetokounmpo comes out on the pick and roll and helps with George Hill, but Jabari Parker is ready on the switch to make sure Turner isn’t getting the ball with space to work with. He perhaps gambles too much on a steal, but even then, the Bucks have put a priority on guarding the rim. Miles Plumlee keeps an eye on Ian Mahinmi but never gives up the paint. Antetokounmpo recovers to cover the possible kick out to Paul George, and Parker fights to get back in front of Turner. A contested shot is the final result and one that Turner misses.

Later in the game, we saw Bucks switch several times as PG and Myles tried to run a two-man game on the right side of the floor. Greg Monroe plays the role of rim defender, allowing Parker to charge out and cover Turner if he wants to take a mid-range shot. The play results in a missed Mahinmi shot, but Solomon Hill’s offensive rebound gives Indiana a second chance.

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On the Pacers second attempt, Monroe comes out on the left side of the floor to cover Turner, but the plan for Milwaukee is the same. With Parker now on Mahinmi and serving as the rim protector on the weak side, Monroe is free to guard Turner and looks ready for a quick shot. By not giving Turner any space and pushing him away from the basket, we see where those statistics from earlier play out on the court. Instead of Turner having room to shoot and hitting a quick turnaround or driving to the rim, he now is having to put the ball down and dribble. There is nothing inherently wrong with shooting later in the shot clock or on a few dribbles, but as you can see here, that often mean there isn’t the same space to operate.

Myles Turner 2015-16 Stat Breakdown | PointAfter

It is easy to forget Turner is only 20 years old and is a relatively inexperienced basketball player. No one is going to be surprised if he learns to better adapt to the NBA nor should they be that Myles is beginning to struggle as the season wears on. The main reason he’s out of the starting lineup (other than lack of offense) is that Frank Vogel and the Pacers are trying to make the playoffs. With Turner’s offense waning, his defensive mistakes are much more costly for Indiana. His plus-minus went from breaking even in February to -1.5 in March. The whole team was struggling, but right now Turner’s main tools are on offense, and when he’s ineffective, it just makes more sense to start Allen over him.

Turner can learn from this and add a few tricks to his offensive arsenal, but he also needs to improve on the defensive side as well. That way when he’s having an off night shooting, Vogel doesn’t need to yank him out of the game or the starting lineup.

Next: Indiana Pacers Rout LeBron-less Cleveland Cavaliers

Myles Turner hit the rookie wall, but given time, he can break through it.