The Ty Lawson Experiment — 3 Possible Outcomes for the Indiana Pacers

There is a trio of likely outcomes for Ty Lawson as he joins the Indiana Pacers, ranging from being a force of complete destruction, a shot in the arm to rejuvenate, or somewhere, more likely, in between.

The Indiana Pacers have officially inked Ty Lawson to join the team after cutting ties with Chase Budinger.

Ty Lawson had a very good stint in Denver and was an All-Star level talent a season ago. He had very respectable averages of 13.3 points and 6.2 assists per game, while shooting over 36% from deep. Lawson was never being a plus defensive player, but he has been an offensive engine throughout his career and has led the league in drives to the basket before. Much ado about Ty Lawson was covered here.

All of that in his past in well and good, but the question is what is in Lawson’s, and the Indiana Pacers, future?

There are 3 distinct possible outcomes for the Pacers signing Ty Lawson; I’m going to examine them from least likely to most.

The first being…

Unlikely, But You Can’t Count it Out

As it turns out, Ty Lawson was the reason Houston underperformed this year. He’s a locker room cancer, and his presence inspires a complete lack of effort on defense and intense infighting in the locker room. The Pacers tumble out of the playoff race, Joe Young’s development goes the wrong direction as he watches Lawson ignore defense, and the two Pacers wind up fighting pre-game in the tunnel, a la Evan Turner-Lance Stephenson.

Hey, it Could Totally Happen

Ty Lawson comes in and is rejuvenated. His DUI problems are left behind, as are his toxic environments in Denver and Houston, and Lawson excels under the guidance of a stable, excellent coaching staff in a low key city. He learns the offense quickly due to his work with Brian Shaw in Denver, and puts up a tidy 10 points, 4 assist average while shooting better than 35% from deep to lead the 2nd unit.

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Rodney Stuckey is freed from having to initiate the offense and is able to do what he does best, attack the basket. The bench unit of Lawson/Stuckey/Miles/Allen/JHill becomes a massive strength, and the team shoots up the standings a bit and avoids the first round buzzsaw of Cleveland and Toronto, allowing them to see the 2nd round. Lawson resigns for a Rodney Stuckey esque team friendly deal, and the Pacers experience a great amount of freedom in their backcourt by being able to mix and match Ty, George Hill, Rodney Stuckey, and Monta Ellis.

The Boring, but Likely Outcome:

Ty Lawson comes in and tries to fit in. He doesn’t cause any problems, and spells George Hill for 12-15 minutes per game. His presence on the court balances out to “meh”, as the improvement he brings to the 2nd unit offense is negated by him being a sieve on defense. Jordan Hill and Lavoy Allen struggle with foul trouble due to protecting the rim behind Ty Lawson, but their scoring gets a bump as Lawson’s attacking the basket frees them up for easy looks. The Pacers continue to stay right in the muck of the bottom half of the Eastern Conference, and make the playoffs as a 7 or 8 seed. They make the series interesting, but bow out in the first round. Ty Lawson resigns on a moderate deal, but does not rediscover the impact form he had in Denver.

The Long and Short of It

It seems unlikely that Ty Lawson is going to come in and cause problems. He probably needs to stay on the straight and narrow and avoid trouble to even have a roster spot in the NBA next season, before even getting into his play. He will probably come in and be fine, while rehabbing his badly damaged image, but 19 games is not a long time to learn an offense (despite previous familiarity) and to learn a new set of players, all while showing he can still be an effective scorer.

Next: Miller Time Podcast Episode 138 - Ty Lawson and the Squad Goals

While still a big name, this signing is most likely to be a snooze in the long run.