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Can the Pacers Overcome Their Fourth-Quarter Woes?

By William Furr

Jan 17, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Nuggets forward Will Barton (5) dribbles the ball against Indiana Pacers forward Chase Budinger (10) in the second quarter at the Pepsi Center. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 17, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Nuggets forward Will Barton (5) dribbles the ball against Indiana Pacers forward Chase Budinger (10) in the second quarter at the Pepsi Center. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Sky is Falling for the Indiana Pacers! 

Fourth-quarter leads have been no safe haven for the Indiana Pacers of late. Late-game collapses have raised a plethora of questions concerning whether the Pacers lack the “clutch gene” or if Frank Vogel’s coaching has been subpar in end-game situations. This is one of those times metrics firmly disagree with the eye, though.

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Despite their recent struggles, the Indiana Pacers have 20 wins compared to just 4 losses when they lead after the third quarter. They have the 7th-best fourth-quarter differential in the league, at +1.3 points (meaning the Pacers, on average, win the 4th quarter by 1.3 points). They are ahead of teams like Miami, Oklahoma City, and Golden State (who, to be fair, have rested their starters in a number of fourth quarters). They possess the best home fourth-quarter differential in the NBA, at +4.4. (No other team is above +4, and only two teams are above +3, the Detroit Pistons and the Toronto Raptors). The Pacers, by standard measures, have been an above-average fourth quarter team this season, and an exceptional fourth-quarter team at home.

The Pacers end-game struggles on the road, however, are no mirage.

Recent losses illustrate a different problem. At Denver they were outscored 45-35 by the Nuggets in the fourth, losing a game that they led by 7 to start the quarter. At Boston, down 2 points entering the fourth but later taking a lead, they committed 4 straight turnovers to give the game away in the final 2 minutes. At Houston, the Pacers led by 13 entering the 4th then lost by 4 in overtime. You can even go all the way back to overtime losses at Miami (up 8 entering the 4th) and at Chicago (came back in the 4th quarter, but lost in overtime).

So while the Pacers haven’t been a bad fourth for the whole season, they have been one lately, especially on the road.

The Pacers lost several veterans this offseason: David West, Roy Hibbert, Luis Scola, and even C.J. Watson. Paul George is coming back from injury, and appears to be trying to get his legs under him still after a scorching-hot start. C.J. Miles is struggling with various minor injuries, and may be paying the price for playing small-ball power forward.

Between a veteran void, dead legs on on established scorers, and new guys playing new places, it’s not surprising that the Pacers are struggling in those high-leverage situations, on the road during fourth quarters in close games. These are quite likely a legitimate growing pain that Pacers fans have forgotten during the recent run conference finals appearances (and a down year in which the team was expected to lose).

Will it improve? It’s hard to say. But this team was excellent in November (going 9-2) and has played well enough lately to have late leads often. They just need to start keeping them. And if you believe Paul George and C.J. Miles will get healthy and stronger, then there is a lot of reason to believe this stretch of late-game futility will pass.

Next: We've Seen a Very Different Myles Turner the Past Four Games

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