8p9s AMA Mailbag: To Small Ball or Not to Small Ball?

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@8pts9secs #8p9sAMA should pacers stick with a traditional Big lineup, or look to acquire a more versatile forward to play small?
— Zach (@AeDub2013) January 17, 2016

Zach G: Should the indiana pacers stick with a traditional big lineup or look to acquire a more versatile forward to play small?

I’m not sure “should” plays in here. Management has made the decision to play pace and space, and I don’t think that’s going to change.

That being said, while he’s making an admirable attempt, I don’t think C.J. Miles is the guy to be the small ball power forward. I’m not sure they’ll acquire someone via trade this year, but I believe either via draft or free agency, they’ll find someone more capable to man that position, and let C.J. Miles resume his more natural role of shooting guard/small forward. Replacing Miles with another shooter in a slightly bigger body would allow Miles to come off the bench, bringing more shooting to the second unit and making the change more palatable.

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I do think they’ll keep Lavoy Allen to match up against bully ball teams, but they’ll continue to move towards smaller lineups.

Pacerspower: I don’t know if it already was posted, but I wanted to ask for a comparison of Monta Ellis and Rodney Stuckey with an emphasis on which guy the indiana pacers should keep going forward (contracts aside). I really love the way Monta is dishing assists this year and has adapted his game to the team and Rodney has been great in transition/driving.

I see clearly that both players are defensive liabilities, but I also think one of these guys is going to get traded and I want to know which guy we should keep?

One of the concerns raised when the Indiana Pacers signed Monta Ellis and re-signed Rodney Stuckey was a concern about the duplication of skills. While very different players in some ways, Stuckey and Ellis have similar skill sets. Both prefer (and are relatively efficient at) the midrange jumper, and both are at their best when attacking the basket and getting to the line. Both are below average 3-point shooters (unless you believe Stuckey’s shooting last year was not an aberration) and less than excellent one-on-one defenders. I agree in theory that the Pacers could do without one of them, but there are several arguments against that happening.

First, those two effectively serve to combine forces as the backup point guard. Joe Young looked fantastic with the ball against Denver, but the Nuggets are not very good, and Young hasn’t shown that he can defend at this level yet (which is incredibly important to Frank Vogel).

Second, removing one of them from the equation (assuming the other starts) takes the creative force from the second unit. The second unit does not always score well, and it behooves the Pacers to have a guy they can get the ball with the shot clock waning and have a chance at creating a shot.

Third, and most important in my mind, is that both guys took a pay cut to play for the Pacers. Trading one of them could look very bad in the eyes of potential future free agents, and the Pacers are not a destination location as it is.

If it were a choice, I’d prefer to keep Ellis. I think he’s the better player, and does most of what Stuckey does — just at a higher level. However, I don’t think either of them gets traded. I bet the Pacers keep both, and (wisely) try to limit any time the two of them might share on the court.

TonofSoil: Question 1: Is this team slouching towards .500? Kind of seems that way to me. It could go a couple of ways, I think. Who is this team, a 51-31 team, or a 41-41 team?

Question 2: What is the vibe of this team? They don’t seem to have much fire or passion honestly. Or even joy! They seem to complain a lot and are pretty low key. Perhaps they lack a leader.

Question 1: I’ve thought all along this was probably a 44-46 win team, and I think that’s about correct. The Pacers will likely hover around .500, and remain just a bit over that throughout the season. The results we saw in November were not sustainable or what this team will be regularly, though there will likely be more stretches of play like that. When both Paul George and C.J. Miles are hot, the Pacers will be capable of beating any team in the NBA. When one of both of them are off, we’ll see more of what we’ve seen lately, struggling to beat most teams and playing a lot of close games.

Question 2: This team doesn’t lack fire. They’re justifiable upset right now, but we’re not long removed from Solomon Hill and Glenn Robinson III’s epic sideline celebration either. They have had an issue with complaining to the refs, but Paul George has actually made great strides in the department over the past few games, and the team will follow his lead. I don’t think this team has an attitude issue, but they are beaten down right now.

AgentFelix: Everyone is looking to place the blame anywhere they can. Losing late leads and failing in OT. Is this a coaching issue or is it simply our team lacking that killer instinct?

I am of the mind that it’s neither. It’s a simple lack of execution from guys who haven’t played together long enough to know each other’s strengths, weaknesses, tendencies, etc. This doesn’t excuse the losses, but it’s the truth nonetheless. They’ll get better — health willing — as the season progresses, but right now, they simply have to persevere and keep working.

James: Do you think Joe Young will ever be good enough to be an NBA starter?

Well, he could start for the 76ers right now, but all jokes aside, it’s far too early to tell. My read on him has always been that he’ll be best suited as a heat check guy off the bench, someone like Lou Williams or Leandro Barbosa in a best-case situation. Not to say he can’t be a starter, but I think the best use of his skills would be off the bench, unleashed on a second unit that may not be as good defensively.

Stephen M: What factors do you think have contributed to their slide the most? Coaching, fatigue, opposing schedule, locker room disfunction or just any and all of the above?

I’m reticent to blame coaching, though that is becoming a more popular trend. I hold Frank Vogel in the highest regard in NBA coaching, and think he’s a top five coach in the league right now. Fatigue and schedule play some into this, and injuries recently have been another cause.

Something that’s getting overlooked in all this is player limitations as well. In any given closing lineups, the Pacers have two beatable guys (either C.J. Miles or Lavoy Allen and Monta Ellis), along with Ian Mahinmi, who is a good defender, but doesn’t have the same intimidation factor at the rim as Roy Hibbert. All this serves to create opportunities for teams, and possibly force Paul George and George Hill into helping off their men more, opening up paths that might not typically be there.

Add this in to my theory of the players not sharing the necessarily familiarity with each other, and it creates gaps that previous Pacers teams may have been able to cover up.

Jeff L: Will the Pacers make any big splash free agent acquisitions to strengthen the team next year?

I’m keeping an eye on a few guys: Harrison Barnes, Donatas Montiejunas, Jeff Green, and Ryan Anderson. It’s my thought that the Indiana Pacers feel set with Myles Turner (center), and the perimeter trio of George Hill, Monta Ellis, and Paul George (of course), leaving one obvious opening – small ball power forward.

Harrison Barnes is probably a max (or very close) salary guy, and is a restricted free agent, meaning the Golden State Warriors could match any offer made for him. However, Draymond Green, Steph Curry, and Klay Thompson will all need paid, and the Warriors might decide that Barnes can be replaced. He would be the ideal solution, in my opinion, but there are some restricted options.

All three of Donatas Montiejunas, Jeff Green, and Ryan Anderson are flawed players, but all have legitimate 3-point range, and fit the mold of what the Pacers are trying to do (at least, moreso than Lavoy Allen). Montiejunas and Anderson are built more like typical power forwards and can be taken advantage of by faster small ball power forwards, but would still fit the “Pace and Space” mantra and might represent a compromise between the Pacers bully ball teams of old and the small ball trend in the NBA.

Jeff Green has been a frustratingly inconsistent player his entire career, but possesses an enticing blend of size and athleticism, along with the ability to score in bunches. I’d guess the Pacers won’t make a big foray into free agency, but those are the guys I’ll be keeping my eye on.

@8pts9secs Do you fear the Pacers will be forced to either lose Ian Mahinmi or over pay him in the offseason? #8p9sAMA
— Kung-Fu Cody (@MrBillups22) January 17, 2016

Cody B: Do you fear the Pacers will be forced to either lose Ian Mahinmi or over pay him in the offseason?

I would imagine the goal is to start Myles Turner next year, and that will play a huge role in answering this question. It’s also critical to remember that the salary cap will be rising significantly over the next two seasons, completely changing the pay scale and the way contracts are viewed. Ian Mahinmi is certainly making himself some money with this recent run, assuming he can maintain something akin to this level of play.

A pay raise is reasonable, and I’m guessing some team is going to make Ian a sizable offer this offseason. I doubt the Pacers will overpay him to stay, but he might take a slight paycut to stay in a situation that he knows he can excel in. There’s no way to know these kinds of things ahead of time (unless they announce it, ala Rodney Stuckey), but my gut feeling is that Ian Mahinmi returns to something like a three-year, $20-24 million deal.

Do you think the pacers should start Myles Turner at PF? #8p9sAMA
— Michanda Mossor (@MichandaMossor) January 18, 2016

Michanda M: Do you think the Indiana Pacers should start Myles Turner at power forward?

I would be immensely interested in seeing this lineup (George Hill, Monta Ellis, Paul George, Myles Turner, Ian Mahinmi), but Frank Vogel has publicly said he intends to use Turner exclusively as a center, so he doesn’t have to learn multiple positions.

Gaston for PacersArg: Do you think this season will end with The Struggle, Part II: The Stink Strikes Back?

I would by lying if I said the thought hadn’t crossed my mind, but I don’t think so. Paul George will break out of his funk, C.J. Miles will remember how to shoot, and the team will grow together to be a tough out in the playoffs. They’re no title contender by any means, but they can give any non-Cavs team fits in a series.

Next: Concerns for the Indiana Pacers at the Halfway Point

Welcome to the 8 Points, 9 Seconds mailbag, where we take your Indiana Pacers questions and make you feel internet famous because we answered them!

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