Paul George: The Midrange Monster

When you hear that something is “new and improved,” the tendency is to dismiss it. New and improved almost always means the same old thing repackaged with different marketing.

Paul George is putting that assumption to the test this year, posting the best numbers of his career just a season after only playing six games due to injury. So far, PG-13 is averaging 24.8 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 4.8 assists, all of which would represent career highs. He’s shooting 43.6% from the field (his highest since 2011-2012 season, when he took less than 10 shots per game), and 41.7% from behind the arc (also a career best) on 6.5 attempts per night. He’s also currently topping his career best in free throws per game, averaging almost 7 and hitting 84.4% of them.

By all accounts, George is having his best year as a pro, and has thrust himself into the periphery of the non-Steph Curry, early-season MVP talk. There’s no doubt that he’s back. He looks like the best version of himself that we’ve seen, doing his thing on defense, carrying the load on offense, and rebounding like never before. The hope is that he’ll continue — or somehow even improve — his play as the season continues and leave the Pacers firmly as threats to the top half of the Eastern Conference.

There are some concerning numbers, however.

Midrange Assassin

Paul George has been shooting the midrange J — the dreaded long 2 — much more frequently this season than years past. PG-13 has never attempted more than 19.1% of his shots from in between 16 feet and the 3-point line. So far this year, however, he’s shot more than 26% of his attempts from that range, typically regarded as one of the most inefficient spots to score from. He’s hitting 46% of those, which is a great clip, but he has only hit 38.6% for his career from that range.

As a point of reference, Dirk Nowitzki, one of the better shooters in NBA history from that range, is taking just under 30% of his shots from that range, and hitting 49%. PG is a great player — arguably a top 10 player in the NBA right now — but he’s not in the Dirk Nowitzki range as a shooter yet. And the fact is that very few players in the league outside of Dirk and David West even approach the 45% mark from this distance. It is just a low, low percentage look that typically is made around 40% of the time, right where Paul George has been for his career.

It’s possible his current bump — up to 46% — is a permanent. He worked heavily on his shot while he was out and perhaps we’re seeing the benefits now of a guy who has taken more midrange jump shots in the gym over the past year than he ever had before. But more likely is that he is hot to start the season and that he’ll regress (at least a bit) as the season progresses though.

In fact, we have seen this before.

Fool Me Once …

At the beginning of the 2013-14 season, the Pacers — and Paul George — were on top of the world. We’re going to look month by month at 2 of PG’s shooting stats that concern me: 3 point shooting percentage, and shooting percentage from 16-24 feet.

November: 51.9% from 16-24 feet, 40.8% from 3
December: 39% from 16-24 feet, 39.8% from 3
January: 35.8% from 16-24 feet, 32.2% from 3
February: 41% from 16-24 feet, 40% from 3
March: 37.3% from 16-24 feet, 30.3% from 3
April: 13.3% from 16-24 feet, 42.4% from 3

As you can see, after a hot November, PG’s stats dropped by a considerable rate. This was the team that was killing all comers and looked like a strong possibility to make the finals up until the All-Star break. This was also the team that completely fell apart after the break, struggled mightily against the 8th-seeded Hawks in the first round and eventually stumbled their way into the Easter Conference Finals where the Heat dispatched of them relatively easily.

The team was very, very good when PG was hot, but crashed simultaneously with PG’s shooting, which tailed off from midrange after Thanksgiving then became really noticeable after his 3-point shooting nosedived after Christmas.

If you look at this season (a very small sample size, admittedly), and at Paul George’s box scores in particular, a few things become fairly obvious.

In October, the Pacers played (and lost) 3 games. PG shot 34.8%, and had a +/- of -14.6.

In November (10 games), the Pacers have gone 8-2, with losses at Cleveland and Chicago by a total of 5 points. PG is shooting 45.5% overall, 46.5% from deep, and has a +/- of 14.7.

Right now, Paul George is shooting well from almost everywhere, but he has migrated his game further and further away from the rim. The Pacers have started like this before, and were nearly unstoppable, until PG’s shooting numbers fell off. The hope here is that his legs got tired that season, and a year of rehabbing his legs and dedicating himself to getting stronger will prevent that midseason shooting collapse. It’s possible that he has taken the leap; that he’s ready to be a top 5 guy, ready to push LeBron James and Kevin Durant for MVP votes. That’s every Pacer fans’ hope.

If his shooting returns to the mean, though, Pacer fans will have to hope that he can offset it with getting to the rim more. For now, it’s time to wait and see, and enjoy Paul George putting up MVP numbers, no matter where he’s shooting from.

Next: Band of Thieves: Pacers Defense Stealing the Ball From Everyone

More from 8 Points, 9 Seconds

Home/Pacers News

Paul George Is Shooting Great from Midrange – For Now

By William Furr | Nov 24, 2015

Midrange Assassin

Fool Me Once …

More from 8 Points, 9 Seconds