The Indiana Pacers are averaging 19 turnover per night through the first three games of the season. Small sample size is always something to remember, and we aren’t even 4% into the season yet, but it is concerning.
I tracked most of the Pacers turnovers during the Jazz game, though I certainly missed some here and there — you can only watch a disaster so long before you have to look away. I noted 20 of the 24 turnovers in real time, and of those I tracked, I estimated 15 of them to be unforced errors. (My definition of an unforced error doesn’t mean there wasn’t a defender present, but that the defense was not necessarily above average, or the cause of the mistake). What we’re going to do is take a look at what I estimated to be the unforced errors, and what they resulted in.
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First Quarter
9:30: Monta Ellis bad pass
Mahinmi wasn’t looking. No score results, Hayward misses a 3.
7:35: George Hill bad pass
Questionable decision. Leads to a Gordon Hayward layup. Pacers were playing with momentum.
5:37: Monta Ellis bad pass
Lazy. Leads directly to fast break layup for Rodney Hood. Cuts a 3-point lead to 1.
2:09: Lavoy Allen moving screen
Trey Burke scores (2 points) on the next possession. Pacers were on a mini 6-2 run.
Second Quarter
7:46: George Hill offensive foul
No score results
3:50: George Hill bad pass
Leads to a Derrick Favors layup. Favors had been struggling mightily.
Third Quarter
9:26: Monta Ellis bad pass
Lazy pass again. Leads to a Ian Mahinmi foul, 2 made free throws. Jazz pull within 2.
7:28: George Hill loses dribble out of bounds
Tight defense, but poor ball control. Leads to an offensive rebound and dunk by Gobert. Jazz up 5, on a 12-0 run. Pacers haven’t scored in first 4:32 of the 3rd quarter.
Fourth Quarter
11:29: Lavoy Allen traveling
Leads to extended Jazz possession, eventual score by Rodney Hood (2 points). Pacers down 11.
10:52: Lavoy Allen bad inbounds pass
Leads to immediate layup by Trey Burke. Pacers down 13, wheels starting to come off.
8:26: Myles Turner illegal screen
Pacers were within 10, had scored last 5 points. Did not result in Jazz score.
3:55: George Hill bad pass
No score results. Pacers down 15, time to rally running out. No score results
2:50: Paul George bad pass
Got airborne, tried to thread a bounce pass through congestion to Ian Mahinmi). Leads to a George Hill foul and a Derrick Favors bucket (2 points). Pacers down 17, game likely out of reach
1:43: Joe Young loses the ball on a dribble drive
Leads to FTs at the other end, 1-of-2 made.
1:21: Shayne Whittington double dribbles
Hilarious, leads to a 3, but ultimately inconsequential, as game is already over
1:00 Shayne Whittington steps out of bounds
While pump faking a corner 3. Leads to 2 missed free throws.
Summary
Overall, the Pacers finished with 24 turnovers that led to 30 Jazz points. By my best calculations, the Pacers handed Utah 20 of those points on unforced errors in a 21-point loss. The defense thus far has been a second-half atrocity, especially in comparison to the third-quarter killers the Pacers have typically been.
However, I don’t think the defense itself has been as bad as it seems; it hasn’t been good, but poor decisions and unforced errors have put the team behind the 8-ball on that end of the floor.
The disheartening thing about this is that the bulk of these errors, to me, look like simple mental errors or lack of effort in execution.
The disheartening thing about this is that the bulk of these errors, to me, look like simple mental errors or lack of effort in execution. There’s no clear answer to the cause of this, but it is probably a combination of several things: integrating new players into the rotation (Myles Turner, Monta Ellis, Chase Budinger, a bit of Joe Young and Jordan Hill), old players in new spots (Paul George and C.J. Miles at the 4, George Hill spending time at the 2, Ian Mahinmi playing with the starters and attempting to do things on offense), and a completely new emphasis on offense, pace and space instead of post and iso. Some is also obviously rust for Paul George as well as just his tendency to make sloppy, careless plays.
However, an underrated possibility that I believe could be a big factor here is simple conditioning. Ian Mahinmi is playing double the minutes he has throughout his career — after he bulked up in the offseason. Paul George is returning from a year he spent mostly without running, and almost completely without NBA-level competition. George Hill is being asked to attack more and run significantly more possessions. C.J. Miles is slamming his 6’6″ frame against power forwards consistently while other teams intentionally try to punish him in the post.
This could help explain the huge disparity in half-to-half performance as well; the team starts fresh and energized, forcing turnovers, pushing the ball constantly to get good shots, but as legs get tired, mental errors became more and more regular, leading to this cacophony of miscues and second-half failure.
The good news here is that the Pacers aren’t suffering from a total talent disparity like last year. As the team gets more comfortable with their roles and more adjusted to the pace of play, it’s likely these unforced errors will decline, leaving the team in position to win a few more games.
Quick Hitters
- George Hill currently has 14 turnovers to only 7 assists, and is shooting 55% from deep while trailing only Stephen Curry in made 3s. Shaping up to be a weird year for the hometown hero.
- Monta Ellis is shooting 14% from deep and 30% overall from the field. He’s very likely to shoot better than that as the year progresses, though he’s not a good 3-point shooter. Maybe Frank Vogel can put him on whatever plan he put Rodney Stuckey on last year to improve his shooting numbers.
- Like Ellis, Paul George is shooting terribly, at 15% from deep and 35% overall. He was hot in the preseason, and may just be pressing in his first extended, regular season action since his injury.
Tony Allen is never gonna to let you forget he is #FirstTeamAllDefense pic.twitter.com/8OUhsjoRCk
— Chris Vernon (@ChrisVernonShow) October 30, 2015
- Paul George also let Tony Allen do this to him. George’s ball handling and insistence on jumping to throw/catch passes has been perplexing, and is not helping matters.
- Rodney Stuckey has been quiet so far this year. There were questions about what his role with be with this team, and I think that has yet to be 100% figured out, but he’s not playing poorly; just no signs of Godney yet.
- The starting unit is averaging 13.6 turnover per game; Ian Mahinmi accounts for 0.3 of those.