The early returns from the Indiana Pacers switch over to small ball have been mixed to say the least. Sure, there has been some positives — but it is hard to be excited when your record is 0-2. Everybody knows that a drastic stylistic change like the Pacers are undertaking could take some time. It is unreasonable to believe that they would come out without encountering any speed bumps on the road to small-ball success.
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In order to analyze the success of the new system you have to look at several statistical factors. Really, it is way too early to come to any actual conclusions but I think it is important to take a quick look at just what we have seen thus far.
Let’s start with the stats.
For one thing, the Pacers have been a rebounding and defensive powerhouse the past few years. That even includes last year’s injury riddled squad. Here’s a little sample in comparison for you.
- Rebounds Per Game
- 2015-2016: 39.0 (27th in the NBA)
- 2014-2015: 44.9 (5th in the NBA)
- Defensive Rating
- 2015-2016: 105.9 (19th in NBA)
- 2014-2015: 100.9 (8th in the NBA)
- Second-Chance Points Allowed
- 2015-2016: 20.5 (29th in the NBA)
- 2014-2015: 11.8 (3rd in the NBA)
Just looking at that — it is no surprise why the team is struggling. The cornerstones of the Pacers past success have now turned into their primary weaknesses. Now, some drop off was expected — but not quite to this extent. It looks like Roy Hibbert and David West meant that much.
There are some positive statistical factors to take away as well. It is also worth pointing out that Monta Ellis and Paul George have shot terribly from the floor (combined 15-of-55, or 27%). The Batman and Robin of this team have been putrid offensively and that should not be the case throughout the course of the entire season.
- Fastbreak PPG
- 2015-2016: 16.0 fastbreak PPG (9th in the NBA)
- 2014-2015: 9.5 fastbreak PPG (27th in the NBA)
- 3-Point Attempts Per Game
- 2015-2016: 26.5 (8th in the NBA)
- 2014-2015: 21.2 (18th in the NBA)
You want to know the sad part? The points per game are only up slightly (101.0 PPG compared to 97.3 PPG last season) and efficiency is worse (99.4 rating compared to 100.8 last season). Don’t freak out yet Pacers fans. I have no doubt these stats will start to even out as the season progresses, and if Ellis can find a groove and PG can start knocking down shots — things could be looking up.
When Indiana made small ball their focus this offseason, the team made a commitment to a smaller line-up with a quicker pace. I know Zach Randolph can be an intimidating match-up for Paul George, I really do, but it bothered me the Pacers went with a larger line-up. I hate the whole “let’s change our starting line-up to who we are playing” idea.
Let me explain.
The biggest issue with this Indiana team is that they do not seem to have an identity yet. It will be hard to find one if you let your opponent dictate your strategy.
If the Pacers are truly dedicated to the new up-tempo pace then don’t ever start Jordan Hill at the 4 again. The biggest issue with this Indiana team is that they do not seem to have an identity yet. It will be hard to find one if you let your opponent dictate your strategy. That is a cautionary approach that leads to a lack of aggression because you are making a counter move to a team before the opening tip. Make the other team stop you and plan for you — not the other way around.
You need to make the other other team figure out how to play you. That does not mean there will not be in-game adjustments on a situational basis. But when have you seen top teams in the NBA change their starters in fear of the other team? It seems as if it is a declaration of weakness to the other team saying we can’t play you the way we normally play. That’s not a good look.
Continuity is so important in today’s NBA and if you are going to play small … play small. Even if it is against the large Grizzlies. In fact, the Pacers were actually at their best when they were able to space the floor and get out and run. Rodney Stuckey, Myles Turner, and C.J. Miles were extremely successful for that very reason.
The Cleveland Cavaliers blew out the Grizzlies in their first game and you want to know why? They doubled down on the post and let Tony Allen shoot. That was the exact thing Golden State did to beat the Grizzlies in the playoffs last season. It was frustrating to watch Jordan Hill bumble around and miss lay-ups when you could have a floor-stretching player in the game. Month Ellis needs driving lanes and if you play two paint-restricted bigs it clogs up the lanes, which leads to poor offense. Myles Turner could very well be the key.
If you haven’t seen it, check out what the guys over at Nylon Calculus put together. In their statistics they broke down the difference between the small ball line-ups vs the big line-ups the Pacers have played.
It’s pretty much self explanatory.
The small ball line-ups are terrible at defense, but score better. The big line-ups can’t score, but are better defensively. It is up to Frank Vogel to figure out how to better balance out that trend. It does not appear to be an easy task.
Monta Ellis has not only been a defensive liability — but he has not faired well on the offensive end either. I have faith he will bring back to his normal production but the Pacers have to figure out who they are. George’s ability to facilitate has been impressive, and we have learned that George Hill should get a lot more corner 3-pointer attempts.
Coach Frank Vogel explains why he has reason to be encouraged after @Pacers fall to 0-2. #Pacershttps://t.co/xAJ1n8ECIw
— Bally Sports Indiana (@BallySportsIN) October 30, 2015
It is still really early and even after two games I feel fairly confident the Pacers will make the playoffs. But they need to either dedicate themselves to small ball or abandon it. Like I stated earlier, Myles Turner could be the key. His ability to provide both rim protection and floor spacing could make him the best option at the 4 spot. Maybe he is the ultimate balance between traditional and small ball styles.
One thing is for sure is that the Pacers have been more entertaining to watch. With seven new players, I expected a slow start. Before you scratch this team off your playoff list you need to realize how talented this team is. Frank Vogel said as much after the loss to the Grizzlies, per NBA.com.
"“We’ve got to play better, obviously. But we’ve got a good team. I’m confident in what we are and what we can be.” Frank Vogel"
There is a light at the end of tunnel. Now, that light is not anything that has to do with Jordan Hill — but there is promise in the new style. Stick to it, be all in and you will reap the benefits. Paul George and Monta Ellis have to play better. No metric will save you if your two best players play poorly.