Grading Past Pacers Drafts, 2013 Edition: Was Solomon Hill the Right Pick?

Solomon Hill’s career in Indiana has been turbulent. During the 2013-14 NBA season, Hill was a seldom used player for the franchise who looked to be on an upward trajectory for the foreseeable future.

Then “The Struggle” happened.

Then Lance left.

Then … well … I can’t even talk about it.

I’ll just post this picture here.

The 2014-15 season turned out to be a grind of the worst sort. A franchise that once seemed to be on the rise was suddenly subject to one of the longest and most joyless seasons in recent memory. The beginning of the season was especially dismal, as seemingly every single relevant Pacer was saddled with some sort of injury. The general misery is probably what led to David West’s decision to leave the state.

But during the month of November, Solomon Hill started to offer some promise. The second-year player from University of Arizona began to showcase his versatility. He played for small stretches as the team’s point guard, and actually looked not-awful doing it. He defended the other team’s best player every night, and looked more than capable of taking on that role.

In all, “Solo” posted monthly splits of 13.1 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 1.9 assists in more than 35 minutes of action. His shooting percentages were pretty bad, but that could have been chalked up to the total lack of options on the floor for the Pacers. Solomon Hill wasn’t supposed to be, and he probably never would be, a team’s “go-to” player. But his versatility and work ethic could very well turn him into a starter on a playoff team. The point is that long before Solomon Hill struggled his way through this past season’s summer league, there was hope for the young swing man.

Our opinions of Solomon Hill came crashing back down to earth along with his numbers and overall level of play. By April, Hill was playing in less than half of every game, and his shooting numbers never increased.

How much hope? Well, a few writers on the 8 points, 9 seconds staff may or may not have participated in an email thread that proffered the idea that Solomon Hill was one of the five best players in his draft class. [Editor’s note: There is no way this happened.]

To be fair, it was November.

Rudy Gobert was not yet the Stifle Tower (one of our writers had actually been lobbying to call him “JaVale, Part Deux” at that point, but it regrettably never caught on). Giannis was freakish, but he wasn’t yet The Freak. Mason Plumlee wasn’t playing, Victor Oladipo wasn’t standing out, and Nerlens Noel wasn’t even mentioned in our Top Ten.

Still, in retrospect, our opinions of Solomon Hill came crashing back down to earth along with his numbers and overall level of play. By April, Hill was playing in less than half of every game, and his shooting numbers never increased, even in his diminished role. For the season, he still averaged a respectable 9 points and 4 assists, but it was clear that he was not starter caliber, and that his career had a much lower ceiling than many of us had hoped in November.

But does Solomon Hill’s decline into mediocrity therefore mean that he is “a bust” of a draft pick? What does the term “bust” even mean?

Grading Past Pacers Drafts Project

Over the next few weeks (because the season hasn’t started and to be honest, we’re all a little bit bored here), we are going to look back at some old drafts from an Indiana Pacers perspective.

How has Larry Bird done in the draft? Will this mean anything for Myles Turner and Mighty Joe Young? Overall, is the franchise in a good position going forward?

We will start with the 2013 NBA Draft in which the Pacers scooped up Solomon Hill with the 23rd pick in the first round.

But first, a few ground rules:

• We are only looking at this from a Pacers perspective. While it’s funny to criticize the Cavs for drafting Anthony Bennett with the first-overall pick in 2013, we ultimately don’t care.

• Team needs will be factored in, but if the Pacers whiffed on a huge talent just to fill a need, there can be no excuse.

• The specific moment of time must be factored in. Events that happened after the draft should not be unfairly held against Pacers’ management, unless there were signs that said event might happen.

• This isn’t NBA2K, and you can’t just make things happen because the CPU is dumb. Trading up into a draft will not be an option. Therefore, no judgments on the Pacers front office will be made regarding players picked ahead of Indiana’s draft slot. It doesn’t matter how much you IU fans loved Cody Zeller and Victor Oladipo – the Pacers never even had an opportunity to draft those guys, so they will neither receive credit for passing over a bust, or criticism for failing to draft a stud that wasn’t even available when they drafted.

With that said … bring on 2013.

Discussing the 2013 Draft

As of right now, the 2013 Draft looks like it could be the worst overall draft class in at least a decade. Unless Giannis Antetokounmpo or Rudy Gobert makes a considerable leap (and this shouldn’t be completely ruled out, by the way), not a single player from the class will break into that top tier of “Superstar,” or possibly even that next level of “All-Star.” A decent amount of starters came out of the draft, but even looking through the lottery picks (the top 14 picks of the draft), there are more unknowns than knowns at this point.

When the Pacers finally were placed on the clock, 22 players had already been drafted. In the moment, most Pacers fans were relieved because Mason Plumlee had just been drafted at #22. After drafting Tyler Hansbrough and Miles Plumlee in previous drafts, most Indiana fans were just excited that Larry Legend wouldn’t be duped into picking another stiff from one of those North Carolina schools. (Please note – the previous perception is definitely unfair, and is probably even untrue to a certain extent. I’m simply telling you how Pacers fans felt at the time for some context.)

Larry Bird had a few different realistic options at the 23rd pick:

• Tim Hardaway, Jr. – the populist option because of his big name and the fact that he played at Michigan

• Reggie Bullock/Solomon Hill/Andre Roberson – redundant swing men that nobody could honestly predict either way

• Archie Goodwin – a big time scorer at Kentucky who couldn’t shoot well

• Glen Rice, Jr. – a lesser version of Hardaway, Tim

• Rudy Gobert – an unknown walking stick from France

In retrospect, Rudy Gobert is the obvious choice, not just for the 23rd pick, but perhaps for the first overall pick in this draft. If every team could do it over again, Gobert would be fighting it out with The Freak for supremacy.

But in the moment, the Pacers were set at the center position. Roy Hibbert had just stuffed Carmelo Anthony and the Knicks out of the playoffs before going full beast mode on the small Miami Heat. Plus, the Pacers already had a defensive French center in Ian Mahinmi backing up the Big Fella. In today’s pace and space NBA, it’s clear that Gobert would have been the best option of the three going forward, but there was no realistic way to predict what was about to happen to the Pacers current face of the franchise, Roy Hibbert.

If Larry Bird had drafted Rudy Gobert, Pacers Nation would have gone through the roof. It’s the truth. Pacers fans would have universally panned the pick.

If Larry Bird had drafted Gobert, Pacers Nation would have gone through the roof. It’s important to note that this shouldn’t ultimately factor in how the draft is graded, nor should it play any role in a front office’s decision making. Still, it’s the truth. Pacers fans would have universally panned the pick and probably viewed it as the new Primoz Brezec or Bruno Sundov, “this guy will stay in Europe for a long time and probably never even play in the league.”

Gobert was the best player available. This much is inescapable. But when weighing the rest of the options, the Solomon Hill pick looks pretty good. While Bullock and Roberson probably shouldn’t be evaluated in a similar manner to Hill since they have both sat on the end of the bench for contenders, Hill still had a much better 2014-15 season than either of them. Glen Rice, Jr. is most likely on his way out of the league very soon. Archie Goodwin remains what he thought he was – an exciting scorer that still can’t shoot at all.

The Final Decision

Really, it comes down to whether you would rather have Solomon Hill or Tim Hardaway, Jr. During his career, Hardaway has had much more of a green light on the offensive end than Solomon Hill, but his results have largely been mixed. Though more exciting, he’s been more inefficient than Hill and has still yet to shoot the 3-pointer consistently. Hill is probably the better defensive player between the two and is most certainly the superior passer. While Hardaway’s fit next to Paul George may have made more sense than Solomon Hill in the traditional sense, Hill is the far more versatile player of the two.

Larry Bird was right to pick Solomon Hill over Tim Hardaway, Jr. Overall, Hill is probably the second or third best player from the 2013 Draft that was taken after the 22nd overall pick (weirdly depending on how strongly you feel about Ryan Kelly).

The Pacers front office cannot receive an “A” for the 2013 NBA Draft because they passed on a player who will most likely be the best defensive center in the league, perhaps as soon as November. Still, even though Solomon Hill is most likely going to be a career bench player, he probably was the best available player at that slot.

Who they should have taken: Rudy Gobert

Better options they could have taken: Maybe Tim Hardaway, Jr. or Ryan Kelly

Worse options it’s good they didn’t take: Andre Roberson, Archie Goodwin, and Glen Rice, Jr.

Final Indiana Pacers 2013 Draft Grade: B

Next: Why Myles Turner Was the Perfect Fit for the Pacers

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