Why the Pacers Should Sign Thomas Robinson

During the Pacers’ end of season press conference, Larry Bird was loud and clear about the team’s desire to play smaller and faster going forward.

Last week, when David West surprisingly opted out of the final year of his contract, that process was rapidly accelerated, clearing up cap room for the Pacers to chase a more suitable player for their new style. Interestingly, his decision may have been affected by Bird’s thorough criticism of Roy Hibbert during that press conference, according to a story from WTHR’s Bob Kravitz posted Wednesday.

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Indiana is now left with the unproven duo of Damjan Rudez and Shayne Whittington at power forward, along with whatever minutes Vogel actually does plan to give George in that spot. So far, the head coach’s answers to questions about the new direction in strategy have been of the “We’ll see” variety, which could just be Vogel being coy, but his track record for valuing size on the floor has been well-established at the point.

Bird seems to perhaps be forcing Vogel’s hand somewhat, currently forgoing the pursuit of a true replacement for David West to focus on combo guard Monta Ellis. According to the Indy Star’s Candace Buckner, Bird, Vogel, and GM Kevin Pritchard had dinner with Ellis on Wednesday night and were intent on closing a deal for the mercurial scorer. At just 6-3, Ellis would obviously represent a much smaller new direction for next year’s Pacers.

Then, later Wednesday night, the Sacramento Kings blew up Indiana’s spot for Ellis, trading a protected first-round pick, Nick Stauskas, Carl Landy, Jason Thompson, and some first-round pick-swapping rights to the Philadelphia 76ers in an outright salary dumping in order to pursue Ellis and Rajon Rondo, since they could now outbid the Pacers’ alleged 3-year, $10.3 million per-year offer.

As of this writing, Ellis had yet to decide on a destination, but Sacramento is presently a dumpster fire, so hopefully he’ll come to Indianapolis.

Assuming the Pacers sign Ellis — or at least sign some Ellis facsimile — they will cut significantly into their approximately $12-13 million of cap room, depending on how many players’ rights they wind up having to renounce. In any case, even if they do acquire a score-first guard, the team will still be in the market for a backup point guard and, still, a backup big to help replace West, if Bird isn’t actually attempting to strong-arm Vogel into playing small-ball.

Should Indiana decide they’re looking for upside, they might take a look at Thomas Robinson, the former lottery selection who’s looking to join his fifth team in four seasons. Although he fits the athletic billing of an ideal power forward, he has so far struggled to play his role in the NBA, which has hurt his ability to fit in at every destination.

Robinson, at just 24, would be primed for the Pacers’ price range and a potential redemption opportunity in Indiana, as long as they could get him to fix his bad habits.

His shot selection is poor, and he’s kind of a black hole on offense. So far, he has failed to understand how to maximize what he does well and stay away from what he does poorly, undervaluing his defense and rebounding, which are his two greatest assets.

Robinson average 8.8 points and 7.7 rebounds in 18.5 minutes per game with the Philadelphia 76ers, his final stop last season. His 48% shooting clip from the field came largely as a result of taking bad shots.

Like many young players, that his issues are mental is why Robinson’s potential is so frustrating. He could be a great modern power forward, with the ability to make perimeter switches on defense, rebound the ball at both ends, and convert easy buckets. Coming off the bench, he could seemingly wreck other second units with his strength and energy. He just hasn’t been able to put it all together.

Jonathan Abrams over at Grantland wrote about Robinson on Wednesday, and the quotes were not particularly encouraging, as he sounded like a guy who really wants to “get it,” but still doesn’t really “get it”:

"“I can do a lot more,” Robinson said. “When I try to express that or show that, it kicks me in the rear end. … I know my limits. It’s not just [being] a high-energy rebounder. That’s what I’m great at right now.”"

Not necessarily encouraging for a role player who’s on his last legs in this league. Somebody should tell Robinson that he’s really out here playing for his job:

"“I can’t stand the politics of it,” Robinson added. “I lost all respect for why I thought I wanted to come to the NBA… Outside a few handful of players in this league, other than that, you’re up for grabs. Anybody. So right now, I’m not playing for money no more. I’m not playing for love. I’m playing because I want my respect back.”"

Depending on how you look at it, these quotes could encourage or discourage you. Maybe you think Thomas Robinson is hungry to prove himself after a string of bad-luck opportunities, or maybe you see a guy who still hasn’t hit rock bottom. Based on the evidence, the latter seems far more likely, but who knows? Maybe this is just Robinson’s self-believing way of responding to rock bottom, and he’ll come back a new player next year.

Either way, he seems like an intriguing possibility to take a flyer on for Indiana. Perhaps Frank Vogel, a player’s coach if there was one, might be able to make more of an impression on Robinson after tumultuous stops in Sacramento, Houston, Portland, and Philadelphia.

Assuming Vogel could convince Robinson to put away the jump-shot on offense, he could flourish in a few minutes off the bench, given that he’d surely be playing defense under Vogel, or he wouldn’t be playing. He could play either frontcourt position depending on the matchup, and his ability to run the floor would fit right in with what the Pacers want to do next season.

Brooklyn is currently perceived as the front-runner for Robinson, per Alex Kennedy at Basketball Insiders––they even contacted him at midnight on the first night of free agency. That seems like a level of interest the Pacers wouldn’t be able to top, but then again, the Nets remain well into the luxury tax, so it’s hard to imagine a scenario where they could offer Robinson any better of a situation than Indiana.

This is obviously all conjecture, but for bargain-bin shopping, Indiana could seemingly do worse. This might be one of Robinson’s last NBA stops, which means he’s never had more motivation to put it all together and realize his potential. He’s also never been in a better situation than he would be with next year’s Pacers, amazingly. Even if Robinson just wants to prove himself on a short term deal, it’s a situation that could be low-risk, high-reward for the Pacers.

Next: Hawks, Kings, Knicks All Want Monta Ellis

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