The lottery is over. The ping pong balls have spoken. In a few weeks, the Indiana Pacers will select somebody with the 11th pick of the 2015 NBA Draft and hope that that person will become the next great player in team history.
The 2014-15 season was one to forget, both for the Pacers and their fans.
After nearly making the Finals in two consecutive seasons, injuries and bad luck derailed the Pacers’ title hopes. An optimist might look at the misfortune and decide that Indiana is close, and a few minor tweaks could put them over the top.
A pessimist might … well, let’s just look at the upcoming draft.
What the Pacers Need
Even if Paul George returns to his previous level of play, legitimate questions surround every other wing on the roster. Can C.J. Miles learn to play defense? Did Rodney Stuckey really figure out his jump shot? Is Solomon Hill a real NBA basketball player? Will Damo Rudez ever find minutes on the wing, or is he just a stretch four?
The back court is even more fluid. While George Hill played at an All-Star level in 2015 when healthy, many still wonder whether he would be better slotted at the shooting guard position on a regular basis. C.J. Watson is most likely on his way out of Indiana, and even the lovable-but-limited Donald Sloan is a free agent this summer.
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Then, of course, there’s the front court, which appears to be in shambles.
Roy Hibbert may or may not be on his way out of town, but regardless, it appears that his future role with the team will change dramatically. David West figured out how to remain a productive player through guile and intelligence in 2015, but he’s nowhere close to the guy that almost singlehandedly won playoff series in previous postseasons.
Luis Scola actually had a tremendous year in 2015, but at 35, he’s not a player that the Pacers, or anyone for that matter, would consider building around. Ian Mahinmi and Lavoy Allen both bring specific skills to the roster, but are just as limited in other ways and seem to be lifelong NBA backups.
The 11th Pick
Of course the Pacers would love to get their hands on Karl Anthony-Towns, Jahlil Okafor, or De’Angelo Russell, but those names will be long gone by the time the Pacers are on the clock. Therefore, for the next few weeks, we will be focusing on some realistic names that might be available when Indiana is ready to draft.
Oh, and in case you were wondering, many great players have been taken with the eleventh overall pick in NBA Draft history.
Just two years ago, Rookie of the Year Michael Carter-Williams was picked in that slot by the Philadelphia 76ers. In 2011, a guy named Klay Thompson was taken right after Paul George. And JJ Redick, Alan Houston, and Robert Horry all turned themselves into nice NBA starters as well.
But Pacers fans might fondly remember the greatest 11th pick of all time: Reggie Miller.
There will obviously be plenty of options for the team, and unless they mess up badly, they should be able to find a rotation-quality player — and hopefully much more. We started off by looking at Jerian Grant, a point guard from Notre Dame with an NBA pedigree. Next, we looked at another point guard that’s currently rising up big boards. Cameron Payne appears to have been on Larry Bird’s radar before nearly everyone else, and he’s a real possibility for the Pacers. Today, we are going to look at another perimeter player, one whose skills may be a little redundant with the current roster, but also one whose upside just may be too good to pass up.
Kelly Oubre
- Draft Express: 16th overall, 4th among small forwards
- Chad Ford: 12th overall,4th among small forwards
- NBA Draft.net: 18th overall, 5th among small forwards
"**All videos are taken from DraftExpress.com**"
Many Pacers fans will probably roll their eyes at the mere sight of Oubre’s name. After all, the Pacers had problems last year, but wing depth wasn’t that high on the list. With the return of Paul George, Indiana should have a solid four-man rotation consisting of the former All-NBA player, CJ Miles, Rodney Stuckey, and Solomon Hill to man the perimeter. Why fix what isn’t broken when an aging David West and immobile Roy Hibbert are manning the front court?
The front court problems are going to be hard to fix, but for anyone that’s been watching this NBA Finals, how important are those guys even going to be going forward? Two months ago, Larry Bird saw the writing on the wall of the NBA’s future landscape. He acknowledge that he wanted to get smaller, get faster, and evolve with the game. He even mentioned playing Paul George a little bit at the four spot. As the league evolves, an even larger emphasis will be placed on perimeter play. Perhaps more importantly, this is a star-driven league, and Kelly Oubre has the potential to be a star.
Five years ago, Larry Bird gambled on a little-known guy from Fresno State at nearly the same point in the draft. The selection was almost universally panned, but Bird understood there would be no guarantees picking that late in the draft. He also understood that only one guy left on the board had the potential to be a star in the league, and Paul George wound up paying off big time. Kelly Oubre could be the next Xavier Henry, but he also possesses an intriguing skill set that might once again entice Larry Legend to gamble on a guy with some star power.
Strengths
Kelly Oubre is nowhere close to the player that Paul George is today, but he does remind you a lot of the player that Paul George was when he first entered the league. It’s easy to forget how limited Paul George was as a rookie. He could barely dribble the ball offensively, was an inconsistent jump shooter, and struggled with his decision making – but boy could he lock guys down. Pacers fans will remember a rookie Paul George giving Derrick Rose everything he could handle defensively in the 2011 NBA Playoffs, and Kelly Oubre has some similar defensive qualities.
Oubre stands 6’7″ in shoes, but features a pterodactylian 7’2″ wingspan. Defensively, he sits low in his stance, and has incredible lateral quickness.
Just look at how close he is to the ball handler at the 4:05 mark of this video. Oubre loves to challenge offensive players and “crowd their space” when possible.
He’s not quite the leaper that Paul George is, but he’s not far from it, and he could be described as a “quick jumper.” As a freshman at Kansas, Oubre sometimes struggled to earn consistent playing time, but whenever he was in the game, he was a deflection machine and a terror in the passing lanes. He averaged more than two steals per 40 minutes when adjusted for pace. Keep in mind that he also did this at the college level where adventures in officiating as well as rules that severely handicap on-ball defense make it difficult to excel on that end. As you’ve no-doubt seen with the Golden State Warriors, defensive versatility will be incredibly vital for wing players going forward, and Oubre should have little trouble guarding most perimeter players in the league. He is quick enough to stay with point guards, while also long enough to stay with most fours.
He also possesses one uniquely special defensive talent that Frank Vogel really loves – closeout ability.
Paul George and George Hill have become masters of this small, but important skill. Oubre already has it on lock as a 19-year-old kid with college coaching.
Oubre is a raw offensive player, and his ball handling and playmaking leave a lot to be desired, but he is a better shooter than many of the small forwards at the top of the draft. His stroke looks a little funky (partly due to the fact that he’s a lefty), but he gets rid of it quickly and has shown that he can deliver both off the catch and off the bounce. Oubre shot 36% from downtown as a freshman, a far better mark than Sam Dekker, who has been type-casted as a “great shooter” among this year’s draft prospects.
GMs around the league have been scouring the planet for “3-and-D” guys, and even if Oubre never develops much of an overall offensive game, he should fit the former category quite nicely.
Like a young Paul George, Oubre just exudes upside. Oubre was one of the highest prospects in America coming out of high school, grading out better than both D’Angelo Russell and Justise Winslow. While high school rankings aren’t necessarily definitive proof of anything (Karl Towns was inferior to Myles Turner on the same list), it has been evident for quite some time that Oubre has all of the skills necessary to succeed at the next level. Oubre struggled a little to find his niche at Kansas for Coach Bill Self, but so did another small forward who played for the Jayhawks just one year before, and he turned out quite alright.
Weaknesses
As annoying as it may sound to continue comparing an unproven 19-year-old to Paul George, how does the following sound: In college, Kelly Oubre struggled with his consistency and feel for the game. He struggled to create offense, and didn’t always dominate inferior competition.
In general, Oubre’s biggest weakness is something that has plagued the Indiana Pacers for the past two decades – he struggles to create his own shot. His creation problems can be directly traced back to his ball handling which is just downright atrocious. Oubre is a fantastic athlete, but he’s forced to play slower than you’d think on offense because he simply doesn’t have a handle that can keep up with his feet. He is almost completely unable to go to his right, and some of his drives are reminiscent of (gulp) Evan Turner, only with the caveat that Evan Turner forgot how to dribble.
The video is almost painful to watch, and one has to wonder if Oubre’s lack of a handle will prevent him from ever being a useful offensive player in this league. In general, this is probably Oubre’s only significant weakness, but it’s so glaring that he may wind up being more like Sam Young than anyone wants to admit.
In theory, ball handling seems to be one of those skills that should be easy to improve through discipline and hard work. Still, Oubre has a long way to go if he wants to be able to help a team with anything other than spacing provided by his shooting stroke.
Fit in Indiana
Oubre’s fit on the Pacers is entirely dependent upon how exactly the team wants to evolve going forward. Should Vogel decide to stay with his two-big lineup, there probably won’t be many minutes for Oubre on a healthy squad. It’s doubtful that Oubre as a rookie would be able to rise higher than Paul George, CJ Miles, or Rodney Stuckey on the depth chart.
But let’s say Frank Vogel was really impressed by Golden State’s league best aggressive “switch everything on the perimeter” defense. Could the Pacers potentially roll out a fearsome defensive lineup of George Hill, Kelly Oubre, CJ Miles, Paul George, and a big? Sure. Who knows how well, or if that team would be able to score, but the style would better match Larry Bird’s desire to play more uptempo.
The Pacers future really is in a state of flux at this point, but that should clarify a little when Larry Bird makes his selection next week.
Why Larry Bird/Pacers fans will talk themselves into Kelly Oubre
That length, that athleticism, that defense, that jumper. This dude is like a sane Lance Stephenson with a better jump shot!
Why Larry Bird/Pacers fans will talk themselves out of Kelly Oubre
Are you kidding me? That dude can’t even dribble!!!
What are your thoughts? Would you be happy with a Kelly Oubre selection? Who would you rather have instead? Feel free to join the discussion in the comment section with your thoughts.
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