The Indiana Pacers Starters Aren't Getting It Done Lately

Despite Saturday’s loss to the Boston Celtics that snapped a six game win streak, the Indiana Pacers are still in safe playoff position thanks to a 12-3 run in their last 15 games. But one trend has emerged over that stretch: The starting unit isn’t doing much more than breaking even.

The usual starting 5’s (George Hill, C.J. Miles, Solomon Hill, David West, Roy Hibbert) +/- stands at 0.1 over that stretch while their net rating is -0.3. In a way that is impressive considering the team’s record, but it isn’t the best sign for a team trying to grab the sixth seed. If it weren’t for Rodney Stuckey, Luis Scola and other bench contributors, Indiana would still be on the outside looking in at the playoff picture.

We’ve seen George Hill revitalize the Pacers since his return and he’s been the biggest factor in Indiana’s recent hot streak, but what’s going on with the other four guys?

Let’s take a look at a some numbers and what they mean to the Indiana Pacers. We’re looking at the last 15 games vs. the season averages unless otherwise noted.

Roy Hibbert’s Shooting Percentage from 3 feet or Less: 37.5%⬇ (Season Average: 54.1%)

Interestingly enough, more of his shots have been coming in from this distance, but he’s seen a huge drop off in his shooting percentage in the last 15 games. That may be because he hasn’t challenged his defenders as much away from the basket as his attempts from 4-9 feet are down to 29.4% (40% FG%) from 34.6% (45.8% FG%) on the season. A somewhat small difference, but with Hibbert’s limited offensive abilities, that can be concerning.

It shouldn’t be too surprising he struggled against team’s with good centers (the Bulls and Thunder) as we’ve seen it before, but considering Indiana didn’t exactly face a murder’s row of at that position, it is a little surprising he underperformed in this stretch. To be fair, his on/off numbers during this stretch are fine, but it hasn’t been much better than s0-so. All the starters have positive net ratings when their on the court during these 15 games, but they are doing worse than the Rodney Stuckey powered second-unit. Only a handful of role players have negative net rating during this period.

So if we can’t be lazy and blame everything on Roy Hibbert, then what gives?

Solomon Hill’s Point Per a Game: 7.1⬇(Season Average: 9.2)

At the beginning of the year it looked like we were seeing Solomon Hill develop as a player, but that hasn’t continued through the middle and now the latter days of the regular season. Once George Hill returned to the lineup, we’ve seen Solomon Hill’s production slow down. Without George Hill, the younger Solomon Hill had a usage rate of 17.1%, but when they share the floor it is down to 14.2%. That’s not particularly surprising, but while many player’s games have been benefitting from George Hill’s return, Solomon Hill’s stats have improved but his overall impact has been diminished, as he has the lowest net rating of any of the starters. Many of his numbers, such as defensive rating, have improved with George Hill back, but it requires a little bit of exploration to see exactly what’s going on.

If you just look at the numbers, it is hard to derive much from them other than the starters are down, and the bench is up. The on/off numbers tell the same story, and Solomon Hill’s numbers don’t widely vary from the rest of the starters. Even for as well as George Hill has been playing if you just looked at on/off you might assume the guy who just scored 30 points and averaging 14.8 points a game was part of the problem.

My guess to why Solomon Hill feels like an anchor is he doesn’t have a role beyond being a strong defender right now. George Hill and C.J. Miles pair well together, and Rodney Stuckey does as very well when he plays with Hill. Solomon Hill hasn’t developed a 3-pointer enough to just stand around and be the kick out guy. He needs to be more engaged and driving to the basket more often as he finished well near the rim and is above average in the paint. What may be best for Solomon Hill is for Paul George to return and boot him down to the reserves. There he’ll be paired with C.J. Watson, Rodney Stuckey, Luis Scola and Ian Mahinmi. With the exception of Stuckey and his current form, those guys are either facilitators or secondary options.

Solomon Hill isn’t a bad player, but he isn’t well suited for the Pacers starting line up at the moment.

C.J. Miles True Shooting Percentage: 54.2%⬆ (Season Average: 50.4%)

C.J. Miles is benefitting from George Hill’s return by knocking down field goals at a slightly higher rate, with only the slightest drop off in attempts. It is pretty clear with George Hill’s effectiveness as a ball handler that Miles has been able to take advantage of the extra space. He’s been getting slightly more open shots in his last 15 games with shots under 6 feet, but what stuck out the most was the number of wide open shots vs the season as a whole. He was shooting 18.6% of his shots with defenders nowhere in sight on the season, but in the last 15 games that’s taken a slight tick up to 21.3%. Not a huge jump, but that’s allowed him to go from breaking even in his eFG% at 50%, to well above a coin flip at 62.1%.

In more clear terms, on those open 3-pointers his field goal percentage is up from 32.6% to 40.7%, and he’s shooting just a little bit more from beyond the arc.

Needless to say, George Hill’s return has been good for Miles.

David West Net Rating in Last 15 Games: On: 10.5⬆ (Off: 7.7)

David West’s production hasn’t taken as many drastic swings as other players have since George Hill’s return, or at least in the last 15 games. Part of that is because West missed a sizable stretch at the start of the year and when he returned he help boost his teammates numbers. West is shooting a little less, but still scoring around the same rate. One of the things that does stuck out is that like C.J. Miles, the team has been playing better with him on the floor than off, at least according to his net rating.

This isn’t too surprising considering his role in the pick-and-roll with George Hill, and the fact he’s always been a steadying presence with the team. West always seems to get his points and production no matter who he is with. It helps he has a mid-rage game he can use to get his points as he challenges other team’s power forwards to come out to stop the 17-Foot Assassin.

Despite the fact most of the starting unit is struggling, it is hard to put much of the blame on West.

So what exactly is going on?

Trying to figure out exactly is going on with the starting five right now isn’t the easiest task. Roy Hibbert is in one of his slumps offensively, but he’s still one of the best rim defenders in the league. C.J. Miles and David West are doing just fine, but Solomon Hill being a player without a purpose right now. If he can develop into a “Three and D” sort of player, then he’d be much better suited for the current starting rotation. But he isn’t that player right now. He’s playing rather average offense inside the arc and his shots have been coming further away from the basket than he is comfortable with. I don’t think he’s a bad player at all, just not the right fit for the current line-up.

George Hill has been powering the team both offensively and defensively since his return, as the team was once struggling to break even and is now a +9.3 in net rating (104.6 offensive rating, 95.4 defensive rating) in the last 15 games. George Hill’s return allowed Stuckey to be the definitive sixth man for the Pacers instead of a stop-gap starter. Up until the lost to the Celtics, the bench had been completely destroying other team’s reserves and Indiana was picking up win after win.

The problem is now the Pacers rotation is in a bit of a holding pattern until Paul George is healthy enough to play, and that may not be this season. With the way Stuckey is playing coming off the bench and considering how we’ve seen him play well, but not as well when he started, a Solomon Hill-Stuckey swap is doubtful. There aren’t any other candidates that make perfect sense for Frank Vogel to throw out there.

Of course if Hibbert can get going more offensively and have one of his streaks then a number of these concerns will fade away. During the seven game win streak Paul George’s return may have been a bonus, but if the Pacers slide down a few games and into the 8th seed, that sentiment will no longer stand.

Next: What Seed Will the Pacers Get?

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The Indiana Pacers Starters Aren’t Getting It Done Lately

By Ben Gibson | Mar 16, 2015