Analyzing the Pacers’ Pick-and-Roll Problems

Last week, NBA.com added Synergy’s Play Type data to their growing Stats page. We’ve used Synergy numbers before, but here’s NBA.com’s quick reminder of what play type information is:

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"Most of the statistical data that is tracked in basketball is based on the end result of plays. Was it a made basket or a miss? Was it assisted? Where did the shot come from on the court? Who grabbed the rebound?Play Type Statistics go beyond the play-by-play section of the box score and break down what happened on each play to produce the end result."

The information is far from perfect and often tells us what we would expect, but it can help us look at things from different angle.

This spiderweb chart below shows where the Indiana Pacers get their plays (the yellow line) and compares it to where the rest of the NBA gets their plays (the red line).

The values of each play type are shown as a percentage of overall plays. This means that, for example, the Pacers — and the rest of the league — end more than 18% of their possessions with a spot-up jump shot, which is the most-common play type as you can see at the bottom of the chart.

Like with spot ups, Indiana’s play types closely align with the league average in some ways: Ballhandler, handoffs cuts, and putbacks

But more so the chart shows that the Pacers plays and points come from a slightly different mix than the rest of the league: more post ups and roll man, but fewer transition and isos.

The arrows next to the play type indicate the efficiency of the play on a league wide basis. On average this year, an offense generates about 0.93 points per play (PPP). A green up arrow indicates that a certain play type generates more than that 0.93 benchmark, the red down arrow means it fails to meet that target.

The relative efficiency of each play type ranges can be seen here:

The Indiana Pacers remain relatively true to Vogel’s “power post” identity.

With 12.4% of their plays finishing as post ups, they are tied for third in the NBA for frequency. Post ups are a below average play type in terms of points per possession, but Indiana is neutralizing any negative impact by using fewer low-efficiency isolations (28th in the NBA) and more relatively efficient plays to the roll man.

An analysis of the Pacers’ overall play mix indicates it probably neither helps nor hurts them vs. the league average. Still, their 0.90 PPP ranks 26th in the Association. This points strongly to execution and ability as the cause for the team’s offensive woes this season so far.

An interesting thing jumps out when looking at the Pacers’ PPP by play type.

Our first chart showed that Indiana’s frequency using the roll man is much higher than the other 29 teams (8.4% vs. 6.6%). That’s the fifth-highest frequency in the league on a good efficiency play (0.97 PPP for the league). However, the red circle above points out that the Pacers are far less efficient here — only getting 0.76 PPP. Not only is that dead last in the Association, but it is spectacularly bad. Only three other teams are getting less than 0.90 PPP (Milwaukee at 0.85, Minnesota at 0.84, and Philadelphia at 0.76).

Regular observers of the Pacers will have theories on why this is true.

Mostly, they’ll know that the roll man for the Indiana Pacers tends to pop far more often than they roll. That means two things: more mid-range shots and fewer free throws.

Mapping where the Pacers lie in both field-goal percentage and free-throw frequency on these plays bears this assumption out.

Regrettably, shot locations aren’t available for these play types, but the numbers are pretty damning.

Indiana’s 37.8% field goal percentage from the roll man is the worst in the league. The other 29 teams combine to shoot 48.3% in these situations. Only one other team (Philly) shoots under 40.0%, while 25 teams are hitting at least 45.0%. The Pacers are spectacularly bad at making shots off of roll man plays.

The Pacers get free throws on 3.9% of the possessions that finish with the roll man. Again, that is dead last. The other 29 teams get free throws in roll man plays 11.3% of the time — almost three times as often. No other team is lower than 7.3% (Orlando) and 18 teams are at or above 10.0%.

Looking at the individual players, the issues crystallize.

David West accounts for almost one-third of the Pacer possessions for the roll man. He’s shooting a respectable 45.4 but only getting free throws on 1.3% of his plays as roll man. In total, he ends up well below average on PPP at 0.87.

Luis Scola is using 29% of these plays, shooting only 33.3%, with a free-throw frequency of 6.6% and turnover frequency of 8.8%. That’s a recipe for his dreadful 0.67 PPP.

Roy Hibbert — at 16% of these plays — scores 0.75 PPP on 37.3% shooting, 4.0% free throw frequency and 6.7% turnover frequency

Lavoy Allen uses about 12% of the roll man plays. He only shoots 30.2%, while only getting to the line 3.6% of the time.

We lack the data needed to be able to differentiate rolls vs. pops leaguewide or for the Pacers. However, if almost 90% of plays are coming from West, Scola, Hibbert, and Allen, would any of us find it surprising to see that the Pacers were taking pops 70% or even 80% of the time? Meanwhile, the league’s 47.9% field goal percentage and 11.0% free-throw frequency indicates many of the other teams are attacking the basket more.

Across the league, finishing with the roll man is an above-average scoring option on any play.

For the Pacers, it’s a detriment. And they take more than most teams.

This comparison isn’t exactly the same, but it is somewhat like a poor long-range shooting team chucking up a ton of 3-pointers even though they keep missing.

The hopeful news is the return of George Hill. He is far better at running pick-and-rolls — and the offense overall — than the backups who have been on the court all season. Theoretically, he should be able to get the roll man in better spots with better passes while also challenging the defenders more off the dribble and forcing breakdowns.

So before we decide that this is all the fault of David West being too old and Luis Scola and Roy Hibbert not being adept in the pick and roll, we need to remember that Donald Sloan has played 980 minutes of point guard for the Pacers this year — more than anyone else on the roster. The team’s depth-chart backup, C.J. Watson, is not far behind at almost 900 minutes. Meanwhile, Hill has yet to reach 350 minutes at the point this year, spending plenty of those minutes coming off the bench with the reserves.

Yes, the pick and roll results have been ugly so far, but it will be interesting to watch the evolution of the Indiana Pacers offense as the team gets healthier.

Next: What Moves Will the Pacers Make Before the Trade Deadline

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