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RUMOR: Goran Dragic Is on the Trade Market, Should Indy Go After Him?

Jan 13, 2015; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Phoenix Suns guard Goran Dragic (1) prepares to pass during the third quarter against the Cleveland Cavaliers at US Airways Center. Phoenix won 107-100. Mandatory Credit: Casey Sapio-USA TODAY Sports

Goran Dragic is a 28-year-old player who has risen to near-All-Star status over the past few seasons. He is an aggressive scorer who can run an offense, get to the rim, and shoot from all zones.

He is also on the trade market, according to Dan Woelfel of the Racine Journal Times.

Hearing Suns want a first-rounder for Goran Dragic and, rest assured, they'll get it. Rockets got to be tempted.
— Gery Woelfel (@GeryWoelfel) February 12, 2015

This may initially sound like a steal at the price of just a first-round pick. While a few players selected in the 2015 draft will eventually turn into better players than Dragic, none likely will be next season and even the lottery is a crap shoot full of busts.

Unfortunately, Dragic may become a free agent this season.

He is currently earning a basement-bottom salary of just $7.5 million per year. But he has a player option that would allow him to not play the final year of that deal and enter free agency. Generally, when a player is on a below-market contract and has the chance to test the waters, he does exactly that.

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There is some reason to think Goran Dragic might not opt out this summer, however.

The NBA signed a new deal with its TV broadcasters recently and that contract starts for he 2016-17 season. The deal pays the league $24 billion over nine years, which will skyrocket the league’s annual take to $2.7 billion from the current $930 million.

It remains to be seen exactly how this will affect the salary cap for the 2016-17 season. But it will definitely go up. By a lot. The only question is whether it will go up by a ton or a crap-ton. (The NBA and players association will be debating this over the next year, with the league wanting more of a gradual increase over several years rather than a huuuuuuge one-year spike.)

No matter what happens though, players who are free agents for the 2016-17 season are looking to sit pretty. There might just be so much money that everyone — not just the LeBrons and Durants — gets uber-rich.

So it is conceivable that Dragic will decide to just continue on his current deal next year and enter free agency in what should be the most lucrative summer ever for players in 2016.

I am skeptical of that, however.

There is some reason to think Goran Dragic might not opt out this summer.

Goran Dragic can still get plenty of money this summer if he opts out. And if he waits another year, he will be on the wrong side of 30 when he is trying to negotiate a new deal. Plus he will have to play that final year for just $7.5 million while worrying about an injury that could derail his future earnings potential.

The fiscally prudent move for him and his family is probably to just opt out this summer and try to sign a four-year deal in the neighborhood of $50 million. And some team with starry eyes for the lefty might even go higher than what it seems like he could make. There is reason to believe that the new TV deal will initiate a free agent spending spree even this summer as teams worry less about being fiscally prudent.

All this is prologue to the question of the day: Should the Indiana Pacers give up a pick for Dragic?

Since there is no certainly he will opt in for next year, the question comes down to two things: (1) How much does the front office love him, and (2) do they think they can re-sign him?

To the first point, Larry Bird reportedly went after Dragic this summer, perhaps offering up Roy Hibbert in a deal. Presuming that did happen, it’s no surprise the Suns rebuked the offer. Hibbert is a hulking, defensive anchor — not a player who would fit in Jeff Hornacek’s more uptempo, offensive-minded system.

But Bird clearly likes Dragic. And as we saw in his (ultimately futile) quest to get O.J. Mayo year after year, once Bird finds a guy he likes, he tends to stay focused on that player.

The next point is more important.

Can the Pacers re-sign Goran Dragic?

Would Dragic look at the prospect of playing with Paul George on a defensive stalwart squad in the weaker conference and want to stick around? Or would the Slovenian arrive in Indianapolis in the dead of February, spend a few months playing with a middling team, and then realize he wants something else for the next few years of his life?

Unfortunately, there really is very little way for the Pacers to figure out the answer. And a first-round pick — something this money-conscious team needs to hit on soon — is a huge asset to gamble.

But if Bird does want to roll the dice, he can probably make it happen.

The Pacers are currently slotted to have a 2015 pick in the late lottery. And while Dragic is a fine piece for a team that wants to contend, most of the teams that will have better picks this year have their sights set on a player with a higher upside who will be peaking two or three years from now. So Indiana’s mid-first-round pick would probably be the best offer the Suns could get as far as the upcoming draft.

Still, it’s a huge risk. And while the reward could be a 2015-16 Indiana Pacers starting lineup that was as potent as last year’s version, the downside is probably just too great.

I would pass on Goran Dragic if it meant trading the team’s 2015 pick.

But what if they would take a 2017 or 2018 pick? And what if they would maybe toss in Miles Plumlee?

That’s when things could start to get interesting …

Next: 5 Players the Pacers Should Acquire at the Trade Deadline

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