The Indiana Pacers starting lineup has been underperforming throughout the year. In first quarters this season, the Pacers have been out-scored by 6.9 points per 100 possessions. This regularly puts them in a whole that even the well-playing reserves — who have given Indiana it’s first good bench production in years — can’t counteract entirely.
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Of course, their really are no “starters” on this team outside of David West, Roy Hibbert, and — for the five games he was healthy — George Hill. So this bad, early play has come from not a constant five-man unit like in years past but in a hodge-podge array of guys who have come in and out of the starting unit.
To dig into the problems and assess how some of the Indiana Pacers starters are doing, we threw up the Bat signal for today’s 8p9s Roundtable.
True or False: David West is no longer a high-level NBA player?
Tim Donahue: True — assuming “high-level player” means what I think it means. David West has been solid, but he has not shown the extra gear that he’d had over the last two seasons. Twenty-four months ago, he was able to shoulder a big load, but now he struggles to have those kinds of dominant stretches. After a rough start, his mid-range game is back, but he struggles getting lift when he tries to bang down low. It’s difficult to tell how much is age and how much is not playing with Paul George, Lance Stephenson, and George Hill.
Ben Gibson: True — but still well above average. David West is going to open up the floor hit his shot from the top of the key, but as Charles Barkley says, Father Time is undefeated. West is also a team leader, something that is hard to see when just looking at stats.
“David West is going to open up the floor hit his shot from the top of the key, but as Charles Barkley says, Father Time is undefeated.” – Gibson
Jonathan Washburn: True. His evolution this season has been interesting. West is making fewer of his shots and getting rid of the ball faster than ever before, but he’s also averaging more assists per 36 minutes than he has in his entire career. He may be transitioning to more of a “4th option on a playoff team” role. West could probably fill that role until he’s 40. But he’s not a go-to guy at the end of games anymore.
Jalen Bishop: True. At the age of 34, he is no longer a high-level player but rather an above-average player, which is no shot on him. He’s been steady. West still knocks down 15-footers and makes passes other power forwards can’t make. However, his basic per-game averages have dropped all across the board and he can’t bully teams inside night in and night out. He has wore down. It also doesn’t help to have your franchise player out with injury.
David Searle: True, sadly. He is transitioning into an old-man game quite nicely, though. His assists are up, and his shots are migrating out of the lane without destroying his efficiency. In his first year in Indiana, West only took 24% of his shots from 16+ feet. This season at the old ripe age of 34, that number has climbed over 50%. He is a steady, solid veteran presence who can knock down shots. However, the label “borderline All-Star” no longer applies to him.
True or False: C.J. Miles should be in the starting lineup?
Donahue: False. I wouldn’t have a problem with C.J. Miles getting the nod, but I also think he adds a lot of value off the bench. Strategically, I’m not at all convinced that adding Miles to the starting unit will improve that group more than it degrades the second unit. With a weaker team, the Pacers may be better served emphasizing strength vs. weakness (their bench vs. the opposing bench) than trying to make their weakness (starters) a strength.
Gibson: False. Miles has been on of the reasons Indiana has a surprisingly productive bench this year. He could start over Rodney Stuckey at shooting guard, sure, but you wouldn’t have the same punch coming off the bench.
“I’m not at all convinced that adding Miles to the starting unit will improve that group more than it degrades the second unit.” – Donahue
Washburn: True. I understand that he brings good value off the bench, but I think his place in the starting lineup would (in the future) create even more space for Paul George and others. Stuckey is well-equipped to fill Lance Stephenson’s old role with the bench, while Miles can seamlessly space the floor and play off the ball with the starting lineup.
Bishop: False. I’m a believer of always having shoot-first players come off the bench while putting players who stand at the 3-point line and play defense in the starting lineup. The Pacers have been hit hard with injuries and need to balance their starting and bench units. Miles should have no problem wanting to take shots within a weak bench unit.
Searle: False. There isn’t a single contender for the starting shooting guard spot who has an eFG% over .450 right now. Nobody “should” be the starter. That said, Miles is shooting .250 as a starter, and a shade under .400 off the bench. His on court/off court +/- is a stunning 24 points higher when he plays with the reserves. He has played poorly either way (for the whole season), but he is better suited for a “microwave” role against the second-tier players of NBA bench units.
True or False: Solomon Hill should start for the Indiana Pacers next season?
Donahue: True. Assuming Paul George is back next season, I would really much rather have a knockdown shooter sharing the wing with him. But failing that, Solo is a decent Plan B. From a defensive perspective, a perimeter group of Paul George, George Hill, and Solomon Hill could become better than the one employed by this team last season. Solo is showing really good progress, though I still worry about his ability to hit shots.
Gibson: Unless you can find a good defender who can post 10.6 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 2.3 apg, and 1.0 spg, I say true. Solomon Hill has been getting better as he plays against other starters and held his own. If his growth as a player continues, he has earned a spot.
“I would have no problem with Solomon Hill closing games when Vogel wants to lock down defensively. However, his mediocre — to be kind — jump shot cramps everything up offensively.” – Washburn
Washburn: False. This answer has to be false since my above answer was true. Solo provides good defense and an improving offensive game. Depending upon matches, I would have no problem with Solomon Hill closing games when Vogel wants to lock down defensively. However, his mediocre (to be kind) jump shot cramps everything up offensively, and it would be nice to see the Indiana Pacers start opening games well again sometime.
Bishop: True. Although he hasn’t been accurate hitting shots from the 3-point line, Hill went 2-of-5 last night vs. Golden State and 2-of-6 vs. the Lakers four days ago. Those look like average numbers but the fact that he is attempting those shots is progress. During training camp scrimmages, Hill would freeze and hold the ball if he felt uncomfortable shooting a 3. Keep him in the lineup, and let him remove all the jitters he has left inside.
Searle: True, baring a talent upgrade in the summer. In the 2012-13 season, the Pacers rode the best defense in the league to a Central Division title. That starting lineup featured a defensive shooting guard who averaged under 9 points per game on 33% shooting from deep named Lance Stephenson. Hill is a talented defender who is still finding his offensive game. The Pacers have proven that they can win games with a guy like that.
True or False: The Indiana Pacers need George Hill back soon to make the playoffs?
Donahue: True-ish. I don’t think Hill will make a huge win/loss difference over this coming stretch of schedule (seven of next 10 games on the road), but the sooner he’s back (to stay), the sooner they can start building some continuity. I think Indiana will have to win between 21 and 25 of their final 41 games to make the playoffs. The Pacers play 22 of their final 36 games at home. That’s when they have to be playing their best ball. A healthy and in-rhythm George Hill is integral to that goal.
Gibson: True. The other point guards are serviceable, but there are just too many mistakes with them on the floor. George showed us a glimpse of what he could do before he was re-injured, and it was clear the starting unit worked better with the ball in his hands. He’s also the best defender Indiana has at point guard.
“Indiana will need to win at least 50% of their games from today until April to get into the playoffs, and I don’t think that is possible without the hometown hero.” – Searle
Washburn: False. I am firmly on the George Hill bandwagon, but the Pacers aren’t far enough back to say they need any one specific person right now. Losing Roy Hibbert for an extended stretch would be the closest to catastrophic, but even still, the East is atrocious and the Pacers are firmly in the thick of things right now.
Bishop: True. The Pacers need George Hill’s reliability on the floor to make the playoffs. Heck, they just need starting players on the court so they have a greater chance of winning some games. With Detroit flourishing in post-Josh Smith and Charlotte creeping, there’s no predicting what could happen in the bottom of the East. The outcome of that prediction is likely below-average basketball but with Hill playing it gives Indiana a much better chance. I also don’t like Donald Sloan and C.J. Watson having to play minutes at shooting guard.
Searle: Very true. George Hill is second best offensive and defensive player on this team. He is the only player in the Pacers back court who can be counted on, night in and night out, on the offensive end. The East is historically weak, true. But Indiana will need to win at least 50% of their games from today until April to get into the playoffs, and I don’t think that is possible without the hometown hero.