Player Preview: C.J. Watson, Missing Time
C.J. Watson’s 3-point percentage with the Pacers last year: 36.6%
C.J. Watson’s 3-point percentages, with two difference teams, in the three previous seasons: 41.1%, 39.3%, and 39.3%.
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Did the Indiana Pacers created awful looks for Watson? Was bothered by injuries? Did he just have an off year?
The answer is likely some combination of those three factors, and you have to expect Watson to shoot better from behind the arc this year
If he can stay on the court, that is. Because those injury questions? They’re back, and will reportedly sideline Watson for at least the first two weeks of the regular season.
Obviously, the news that George Hill will miss at least three weeks and that David West will miss at least three games is a bigger blow to the team. But losing Watson is huge as well.
Along with Hill, he is the only rotation-caliber perimeter holdover from last year’s squad. He was supposed to be a stabilizing force for the reserves as well as a part-time two-point-guard (or zero-point-guard, depending on how you view it) back court with George Hill.
Instead, he will miss time, and we saw how badly that worked out for Indiana last year, as his lost month after the All-Star break coincided with the team’s collapse.
Him sitting out those games was far from the leading reason the team fell apart, but it sure didn’t help. And his absence won’t help anything either now in what is shaping up to look like the worst Pacers’ season since the 1980s.
Until we know when he will be back on the court and hitting 3s, there isn’t much more to say about the guy. Instead of being a part of continuity he will just be one more name to add to the growing list of players from last year we won’t see for awhile.
Get well soon, Watson. You will be missed.
– Jared Wade (follow @8pts9secs)
Relevant GIF
If you plan to follow the 2014-15 Indiana Pacers, you’ll need a sense of humor. Laugh so you don’t cry. And what’s funnier than Archer? Nothing. Nothing is the answer.
Key 2013-14 Stats
- 13.0 player efficiency rating (PER)
- 6.6 points per game
- 1.7 assists per game
- 51.6% eFG%
- 36.6% on 3-pointers
- 14.4% assist rate
One Key Question
How can C.J. Watson be used most effectively?
The Situation: C.J. Watson came off the bench for 58 of the 63 games he played last year, posting a plus-minus of +1.2 during those situations, and shooting almost 37% from behind the arc. In the five games he started, he was +13.4. Should C.J. be Indiana’s starting point guard?
Best-case Scenario: After several wing players disappoint early in the year, Frank Vogel experiments by starting Watson and George Hill together. The two thrive, with Hill attacking more comfortably from the off-guard spot while Watson facilitates the offense and spaces the floor with some deadly spot-up shooting. The Pacers discover a transition game with David West finding both Hill and Watson with outlet passes that lead to easy points on the break.
Worst-case Scenario: The Pacers wind up in the familiar situation of having two talented but flawed point guards who both need to start to truly be comfortable. Watson continues being banged up health-wise and struggles to consistently hit shots.
Prediction: Watson remains the backup, but shares some minutes with Hill, allowing them both to get some off-the-ball reps. Watson remains a valuable asset steadying the second unit, and has another solid year.
– William Furr (follow @Will_Furr)
How He Scores
The above spiderweb chart shows, via Synergy Sports, what types of possessions lead to his points in 2013-14. (created by Tim Donahue, follow
)
C.J. Watson seemed proficient in transition to the naked eye last season, so it’s nice to see that play out here. He seemed to get out on the break a lot. The other big scoring chances for him came on spot ups, which matches up to what we saw and makes sense since he was filling the same Bring The Ball Up Then Pass It And Stand Around role as George Hill did with the starters.
His 2013-14 shot chart, via Nylon Calculus
C.J. Watson’s distribution of shooting accuracy is strange. Why was he so much better from the right wing? The previous year, he was oddly gangbusters from the left wing instead. Is this just randomness at play or is there something to it? My guess is that it’s part system and individual preference in the offense and part random. I would expect things to even out more for Watson this year.