2016-17 Central Division Previews: Detroit Pistons

The final Central Division preview is here, featuring the Detroit Pistons. How will they fare against the Pacers and the rest of the NBA?

The Pistons were right up there with the Cavaliers in terms of uneventful off-seasons, but the team is still looking to improve on their eighth place finish in the Eastern Conference last year.

Below, read all about how they should look heading into this year.

And be sure to check out our other team previews as well:

Detroit Pistons Basics

Team:
Detroit Pistons

Last Season Record:
44-38

Last Season Record vs the Pacers:
1-3

Vegas Projected Win Total:
46.5

Additions:
Ish Smith, Jon Leuer, Boban Marjanovic

Losses:
Steve Blake, Spencer Dinwiddie, Jodie Meeks, Anthony Tolliver

Detroit Pistons Season Preview

Notice how there the word “key” does not appear in the “Additions” and “Losses” sections above? Yeah, the Pistons didn’t make waves this offseason like many other teams, including division opponent Chicago Bulls. They did a little bit of window shopping during the summer, but they didn’t make large purchases and the core nucleus of the team consists of the same players from last year.

On the positive end of that, the Pistons didn’t lose anybody too important either. Their biggest loss in minutes comes from Anthony Tolliver who inked a two-year, $16 million dollar deal with the Kings, and even he only contributed about 18 minutes, 5 points, and 3 boards a game.

The lack of major change doesn’t mean the Pistons didn’t improve during the offseason, though. A few under-the-radar purchases from Detroit in the offseason, such as Jon Leuer and Ish Smith, could prove to be supplemental pieces good enough to consider the Pistons “improved” on paper. The signing of 7’3″ project and San Antonio Spurs fan favorite Boban Marjanovic could develop into something special as early as this year, though the certainty of that is yet to be seen, as he only got about 5 minutes of action in the Pistons first game.

But all things considered, it’s obvious that the success of this team falls on the shoulders of the currently injured Reggie Jackson and emerging superstar Andre Drummond.

Drummond finally crossed the line between future top center and actual top center last year as he put up an impressive 16.2 points and a league-leading 14.8 rebounds per game while netting his first All-Star appearance.

But the free-throw numbers can’t be ignored. For the second consecutive year, Drummond’s FT% dipped by about 3%, putting him at a pitiful 35.5% in 2015-16. The NBA is working closer towards eliminating intentional fouls as a strategy, but it’s just not there yet. Besides, when a player is taking seven free throws a game, it’s just simple math that making five or six instead of two is automatically improving your team offensively, without requiring any kind of actual executional leap. Just make the freebies.

The Pacers had dealt with this situation in Ian Mahinmi for a few years (shot 30.4% from the line in 2014-15). Whether it’s mental, a technique issue, or a little bit of both, it’s unacceptable for a player that wants to be the best at his position. For players like DeAndre Jordan and Dwight Howard, the free-throw problem isn’t as much of an issue due to the fact that they aren’t the best player on their team and they at least are shooting above 40%. Drummond is the best player on the Pistons and is supposed to be the first or second option on offense. If he wants to take the next step from top center to the top center, the free-throw numbers are the first thing that have to change. (Also: Karl-Anthony Towns would have to quit basketball).

More from 8 Points, 9 Seconds

Jackson, on the other hand, seems to be trending up in all the right ways. After exploding onto the scene last year as a full-time starter — with 18.8 points a game and 6.2 assists to boot — all eyes were ready to be on the point guard to see what he does next. For the next month or two, all eyes will be waiting.

Jackson was extremely aggressive last season, finishing sixth in the league in drives per game as he found himself and friends like Drummond with easy buckets at the rim. His current replacement at PG, journeyman Ish Smith, just so happened to have finished fourth in drives last year. Smith will probably be fine for the time being, but his scoring ability can’t compare to Jackson’s.

The Pistons aren’t shooting for the moon this season, but if Jackson comes back swinging and Drummond can build on his stellar last year, then Tobias Harris, Marcus Morris, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are decent enough complementary pieces to lead the team back to a playoff experience. But as it sits, it’s hard to think of a scenario where they’re much higher than a 7- or 8-seed and don’t get bounced in the first round.

What This Means for the Indiana Pacers

The Pistons did pretty well against most of the Central Division last year — with the exception of the Indiana Pacers. Finishing 10-6 and winning every season series outside of Indiana, Detroit found themselves struggling to beat the Blue and Gold despite their success against other divisional teams (including Cleveland).

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A quick note from the four games the Pacers and Pistons played last season: the Pacers got outrebounded by a lot. The Pistons nabbed 39 more rebounds over the series. They also won the points in the paint battle every game. Remember the game where Drummond put up 25 and 29? Yeah, the Pacers were not treated so kindly around the rim against the Pistons last year.

The problem is, the Pacers were better in just about every other offensive category. Whether it be shooting, passing, or fast-break points, the Pacers had the advantage in almost every game. Whether this was the result of the Pacers running a great offense (probably not) or the Pistons running an awful one (probably so), the gap between the two teams offensively was so large that the huge rebound edge meant almost nothing for the Pistons throughout the series. And with the Pacers seemingly improving their offense in the offseason while the Pistons made little change, there’s not much evidence that proves the offensive gap will be much different this year.

A slight advantage goes to the Pacers in the scheduling game as they only catch one back-to-back facing the Pistons compared to the Pistons’ two against the Pacers. Starting in December, the teams will play every month, which could actually spell a little trouble for Indiana. The Pacers and George specifically have hit a wall in that period of time in recent seasons, so the possibility of the Pistons catching the Pacers on an off night might be a little higher than usual.

Detroit Pistons Bottom Line

Don’t expect much change in Detroit this season. If anything, the Pistons are in danger of regression due to the improvement of other Eastern Conference teams. Their realistic ceiling is another first-round exit, and their floor is being a team that is on the outside looking in come April.

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