If you look at the Indiana Pacers cap table, one thing is obvious: this core has, at most, two years left together. Between the number of deals expiring in 2027-28 and the lack of flexibility to avoid the first apron next summer, this is simply not a team that has the tools to stay together.
Within the next 12 months, Indiana will have to decide on the futures of Ben Sheppard and Jarace Walker, with only eighteen million in space below the first apron. Just one more year after that, three of the five starters and just about every other rotation piece will be free agents.
What does that mean for Indiana?
It means that there is a ticking clock on every single player they need to resign, and that each of those extensions makes the other more possible, instead of less.
It sounds contradictory but it's not.
Juggling things until you drop one
There's a German saying that the fastest way to burn a meal is by making five different ones at once. In the same way, the fastest way to mess up a contract negotiation is to be focusing on six different rotation players at once.
There is a clear hierarchy amongst the players needing new deals. At the bottom are the newcomers and bench pieces. Kelly Oubre Jr. has yet to play a game in a Pacers jersey; he does not need to be prioritized.
While Sheppard and Walker are drafted projects that have spent their whole careers in Indiana, signing either to any type of deal now would only be worth it if it was for less than their cap holds next summer.
Alternatively, players like Ivica Zubac and Pascal Siakam, the cornerstones of this team's veteran presence and all-star-level players who cost a premium in draft capital, must be treated as the valuable commodity that they are.
That leaves just Andrew Nembhard as the odd man out. His situation, however, is special as he is the only Indiana Pacers draft pick to have worked out in recent history.
With all that left to be considered, the hardest possible situation to navigate would be one in which all of these different arguments are made simultaneously. With so many players deserving their deals, how do you make the budget work?
The answer, unfortunately, is to be proactive. Get the extensions done as fast as possible and trade off those you do not plan on resigning. This inherently would take the Pacers out of the title race. However, it would also enable a pivot to the next era of Indiana basketball.
In this way, there is a hard deadline on how long the front office has to make these choices. With so many timers running, there is bound to be a meal that gets burnt. For an Indiana team that will not have the opportunity to replace what they lose in free agency, this is a losing battle.
When the only way forward is through blind self -belief or realistic self-understanding, it is the second option that keeps you going. The Pacers are all in but need to make sure they do not put themselves in an unwinnable situation, chasing a title they are already far away from.
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