The Indiana Pacers currently have only $2.2 million in space under the first apron, with their primary signing of free agency, forward Kelly Oubre Jr., leaving them right up against a line they are trying to avoid.
While this year's cap crunch comes with no real damage — Indiana lost only players they had cut for roster space in Micah Potter and Taelon Peter, and managed to retain Jalen Slawson and Kobe Brown on two-ways — the same can not be said for what is hiding at the end of the next two seasons.
Without accounting for a new contract for Ben Sheppard or Jarace Walker, either of whom could be a breakout performer in a key bench role this year, the Pacers have only $8 million in space below the first apron in 2027-28. The very next summer, virtually the entire team reaches free agency.
In that way, the prognosis for this year is one of waiting. There are question marks about whether Tyrese Haliburton can make a full return, but the team is decidedly talented enough to make a deep run.
There are so many teams now in the East who will be pushing the Pacers to the limit. If their window is the next two years, as their cap table indicates, they will be stuck dealing with the entirety of LeBron James' Philadelphia 76ers contract and the continued rise of the New York Knicks.
There are warning signs in clear view.
Tracing the end of past contenders through contract disputes
Very rarely do teams stay all in for long. The Minnesota Timberwolves, headed by a GM who is known to be one of the most aggressive in the league, pivoted out of their all-in move for Rudy Gobert by trading Karl-Anthony Towns for added flexibility.
Obviously, that move did not work out for Minnesota, and Tim Connelly has since chased a big trade again, leaving the Wolves with no movable first-round picks. However, the truth remains that it's hard to stay that deep into an aggressive window with the second apron restrictions and the way the league moves nowadays.
A realistic worst-case scenario for the Pacers is similar to that of the current Toronto Raptors.
Toronto's starting lineup last year was among the most expensive in the league, with big contracts at each position. That left the Raptors with little maneuverability for a team that was in the middle of a mediocre East.
Lucky for them, they got bailed out of one of those bad deals when Kawhi Leonard chose them. That isn't likely an escape for the Pacers.
Instead, next year will likely be the first and last year we see this team all together. If Indiana finds a way to give extensions to all of Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Pascal Siakam, and Ivica Zubac at the considerable raises they will all demand, that leaves all of TJ McConnell, Obi Toppin, and whoever emerges from the bench battle wandering out the door in the summer.
There is no real way out of this situation. Either you win and earn yourself another all-in year, or the cap forces this chapter of Pacers history closed before it ever really had a chance.
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