Most are expecting the Indiana Pacers to have a major drop-off this season following Tyrese Haliburton's Achilles injury and Myles Turner's departure. However, there are still some with high hopes for the team, even with these low expectations.
This includes Bleacher Report's Andy Bailey, who predicted that Indiana can be at least a .500 team this season.
"With an over-under set at 36.5, the bookmakers obviously foresee a down year for the Indiana Pacers. And there really wouldn't be much shame in that. But there's enough talent, institutional know-how and competitiveness here to beat expectations, even without those two," Bailey wrote.
"Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Bennedict Mathurin and Pascal Siakam all played with the intensity necessary to make an unexpected Finals run this past summer. Now, their backs will be against the wall throughout the regular season. Rick Carlisle will have them coming out swinging."
"And in the East, that and breakouts for Nesmith, Mathurin and Nembhard, all of whom will have more responsibility without Haliburton around, will get the Pacers to at least 41 wins."
The Pacers have some obstacles to overcome this season
Bailey's prediction truly is a bold one as some other writers don't have the Pacers even coming close to 41 wins.
Grant Hughes, also of Bleacher Report, predicted that the Pacers will finish 34-48 this season. Additionally, Bailey Bassett of ClutchPoints also predicted a 34-48 record for Indiana this season and expects them to miss the playoffs.
Given the Pacers' situation, these predictions are not far-fetched at all.
It is going to be a lot for Indiana to overcome the absences of Haliburton and Turner. Furthermore, the team is also now dealing with T.J. McConnell's absence, as he is set to miss about a month due to a hamstring injury, and their point guard situation still leaves a lot to be desired.
Additionally, because of all their roster shuffling (moving Andrew Nembhard to point guard, inserting Bennedict Mathurin at shooting guard, etc.), the Pacers are going to lose a lot of their depth this season.
This has been one of their biggest strengths in recent seasons, and it was a big reason they made it all the way to the NBA Finals in 2025. However, this is now one of their weaknesses and an obstacle they must overcome.
Last season, the Pacers finished with a 50-32 record, even after beginning the season 10-15. The season before, they were 47-35.
A .500 record is not going to be easy, especially this season. However, there are still reasons to think the Pacers can exceed expectations once again.
They won't be as strong as they were last season, but the Pacers still have a talented roster. Pascal Siakam was an All-Star just last season, and he should be even better this year with a bigger role. Additionally, players like Nembhard and Mathurin are going to be in line for bigger opportunities and are each candidates to take home the Most Improved Player award.
Furthermore, the Pacers will rely a bit more heavily on Isaiah Jackson, Johnny Furphy, and Jarace Walker. All these players have shown flashes at different points, but this season, they are each expected to take on bigger on-court roles. This should allow each of them to develop into regular contributors as the Pacers look to re-establish themselves as playoff contenders.
But perhaps above all else, the Pacers' backs are once again up against the wall.
Many doubted Indiana on its way to an NBA Finals appearance last season. This was true after its slow start to the season, before its playoff matchups against the Milwaukee Bucks and Cleveland Cavaliers, and even during numerous playoff games.
However, it seems that the Pacers do their best when everybody doubts them, and in July, team president Kevin Pritchard made sure that fans remembered that.
"We've done the best when we've had a chip on our shoulder, when everybody counts us out in a series or a season, and I'm not so sure you should count us out yet," Pritchard said about the Pacers before the 2025-26 NBA season.
The Pacers will have a good opportunity to shock the basketball world and make some noise. They've done it before, and if they proved anything last season, they are more than capable of doing it again.