Analysts telling you who won or lost the Indiana Pacers’ recent deadline trade for Ivica Zubac are only guessing.
It’s a high-risk, high-reward move for Indiana, and it will be a few years before we can fully assess the full impact. Luck likely will play as big a role as skill in the eventual outcome.
If all goes well, Indiana has added a top-10 center in Zubac and will add an All-Star-level talent in the draft this summer. The resulting success will mean the Pacers won’t miss the draft picks surrendered in the deal any more than, say, they’ve missed the picks they yielded to bring in Pascal Siakam
If all goes poorly … it could get ugly.
Let’s peek three years into the future at the worst-case and best-case scenarios for Indiana’s big deal.
The worst-case scenario: Mourning a mistake
It’s the day of the 2029 NBA Draft. Pacers fans can’t bear to watch.
The Pacers' pick belongs to the Los Angeles Clippers, and it’s the No. 1 overall pick. That’s what can happen if you miss the playoffs.
Everyone agrees. The Zubac trade back in 2026 was a colossal blunder.
It all started to go wrong with the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery. Indiana’s pick fell outside the top four, so the lottery slot went to the Clippers. The Pacers missed out on a chance to add a key contributor to a team that seemed to be one key piece short in the years to come.
Indiana won 50 games and a few playoff series during the 2026-27 and 2027-28 seasons, but never made a serious run at a title.
It all fell apart in 2028-29. Indiana was in postseason contention for most of the season, but a final-week slump bumped the Pacers into the play-in tournament. Indiana suffered a couple of surprise home losses during the play-in rounds to miss the postseason altogether. Fate took an unkind turn when the Pacers defied the odds to win the NBA Draft Lottery, but the top pick went to the Clippers under the terms of the Zubac trade.
Indiana fans are apoplectic over this turn of events.
Meanwhile, Clipper fans can’t believe their good fortune. Led by ageless wonder Kawhi Leonard, Los Angeles has established itself as the third-best team in the Western Conference, behind Oklahoma City and San Antonio. The Clippers acquired Bennedict Mathurin in the Zubac trade, and shrewdly re-signed him. Mathurin rewarded that faith by blossoming into a reliable starter. Los Angeles’ selection with that 2026 draft pick is already an All-Star. Now, the Clippers are adding the best player from a strong draft.
It’s official. The Clippers won the Zubac trade.
The best-case scenario: Celebrating a title
It’s the day of the 2029 NBA Draft. Pacers fans are too busy celebrating to notice.
The Pacer pick belongs to the Los Angeles Clippers, but it’s the No. 30 pick. That’s where you pick when you win the NBA title.
Everyone agrees. The Ivica Zubac trade back in 2026 was a stroke of genius.
It all started to pay off with the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery. Indiana drew the No. 1 selection. The Pacers added a player who developed into an All-Star and proved to be the missing piece to a championship puzzle.
Indiana won 50 games and a few playoff series during the 2026-27 and 2027-28 seasons. Observers could tell the Pacers were ready to make a serious run at the title.
It all came together in 2028-29. Indiana was in contention all season long, and then seized the best record in the league and home-court advantage for the entire postseason with a final-month surge. Home court proved decisive in the NBA Finals against Oklahoma City. The Pacers avenged their 2025 NBA Finals loss, beating the Thunder in Game 7 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse for the franchise’s first NBA title. That meant the 2029 pick headed to the Clippers under the terms of the Zubac trade is merely No. 30 overall.
Indiana fans are fine with this trade-off.
Meanwhile, Clipper fans can’t believe their continued misfortune. Despite the presence of ageless wonder Kawhi Leonard, Los Angeles is stuck in an endless rebuilding loop. They didn’t re-sign Bennedict Mathurin after acquiring him in the Zubac trade, and he developed into a reliable starter elsewhere. Yes, they have an extra first-round pick in 2029, but they know they aren’t going to get an impact player with the Pacers’ No. 30 pick.
It’s official. The Pacers won the Zubac trade.