With the NBA reportedly exploring the idea of expanding the league to 32 teams, likely bringing one team back to Seattle and adding another in Las Vegas, this means that, sooner rather than later, we might have an expansion draft on our hands.
So what exactly does that mean?
Whenever a new team joins the fold, they essentially have their pick of castaways from all the other teams around the league that they chose until they form a roster. It obviously wouldn't be fair to, let's say the Indiana Pacers, if the new Las Vegas team decided they wanted Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam on the team without Indiana having any way to combat that.
So in an expansion draft, every team around the league can protect any eight players on their roster at that moment, making them untouchable. The only exceptions would likely be players on expiring contracts, two-way deals, or restricted free agents.
A possible NBA expansion draft probably won't be coming for at least another two years or so, but it still isn't too early to think about who the Pacers would protect when the time comes.
(Side note: Is it not pretty surreal that we're living in a world where the Seattle Supersonics might actually rejoin the NBA? It's like Tom Brady retiring from the NFL, or CM Punk returning to the WWE, or Jim and Pam finally getting together in "The Office." You knew it was going to happen at some point, but it was a conversation of "when?" for so long that when it actually happened, it was like, "Well, what now?" We're approaching that territory here).
Pacers may need to decide between Jarace Walker and Johnny Furphy
With the roster as currently constructed, there are seven no-brainer protections for the Pacers to make, by my calculations: Haliburton, Siakam, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, T.J. McConnell, Ivica Zubac, and Obi Toppin. I would include the Pacers' first-round pick in this year's draft because if they can land AJ Dybantsa, you do everything you can to protect AJ Dybantsa. But we still don't even know if they will get their pick back yet, so I'll just assume, for the sake of this exercise, that they won't.
That leaves one spot open, and in my opinion, it's really between two players: Jarace Walker and Johnny Furphy.
Both players would be tough losses for the Pacers since they would each, I think, be guaranteed to get selected in an expansion draft. But unless the Pacers prioritize keeping both of them over one of the aforementioned players, which probably wouldn't be a good idea, they need to make a decision on one of them. (I can maybe be talked into McConnell, but even a near 40-year-old McConnell would be a huge asset to the Pacers).
They each have their pros and cons. Walker has shown flashes of real potential throughout his young NBA career, and he's in the midst of a career year, averaging 11.6 PPG, 5.2 RPG, and 2.4 APG while shooting 42% from the field and 37.4% from deep. And this includes his horrific start to the season when it looked like his eventual departure from Indiana was an inevitability.
But on the flip side, the Houston alum also still often looks out of his league when he steps on the court, making poor decisions with the ball, being a questionable one-on-one defender, and sometimes still looking lost on the court.
As for Furphy, he has looked solid in his two seasons in the league, but it's clear that he's still more of a project. He still needs to find his jumpshot at the NBA level (he's shooting a career 31.4% from deep), and he still needs to iron out some inconsistencies. But he's also just 21 years old and clearly has a ton of talent. With more time, he can really develop into a valuable player and could help Indiana compete for the long haul.
So what should the Pacers do?
It's a tough call. It really is. But I think the Pacers would be better off keeping Walker around.
The jury is still out on him, but he's shown time and time again why he can provide value to the Pacers for the long haul. He has gradually improved in every area of his game since entering the league, and he is a jack-of-all-trades type of player who can contribute on both sides of the ball.
Furphy is still more of a project, and while I feel confident he can develop into a legitimate contributor, Walker's ceiling is still much more intriguing. He might never live up to his pre-draft hype, but the Pennsylvania native has talent. And at just 22 years old, he also still has a ton of upside.
Plus, on top of all of that, Walker has more trade value than Furphy. Not saying Indiana should protect him just to trade him, but when it's this close a call, sometimes this is the tie-breaker.
It would hurt the Pacers to lose either of these players, but when it comes down to it, they might need to make a decision sooner rather than later... even if some might not be happy with the outcome.