Andrew Nembhard is atop many Indiana Pacers fans' lists as their favorite player not named Tyrese Haliburton. There's good reason for that as well.
Maybe it's the way he plays, or the inherent excitement that comes with a second-round pick outperforming their draft slot. Maybe it's his status as the only home run Pacers draft pick since 2015 (at best). Maybe it's just not explainable with anything outside of "that boy nice."
However, there is a real chance that with the roster crunch that will be spurred on by the less-than-perfect cap table and the number of players who need extensions, Andrew Nembhard could be the player that Indiana lets go of in the shuffle.
Nembhard still deserves consideration as the future off guard alongside Haliburton, but if the Pacers are focused on their current title window instead of a future pivot, they will likely lock in Pascal Siakam and Ivica Zubac instead.
With Jarace Walker and Ben Sheppard already on the bubble of playing themselves out of an Indiana return, the next cap casualty is bound to be someone.
Nembhard is the name that unfortunately makes the most sense.
The expenses of extensions
There is no doubt in anyone's mind that someone will pay Nembhard more than the 19.5 million dollars he is getting now. Following the 2024-25 season, Andrew signed a three-year extension worth nearly 60 million.
If Nembhard were to sign a deal for the same or similar percentage of the cap, it would likely mirror Ayo Dosunmu's recent 109 million deal. That's a lot of money to put down for a player who failed to take a leap with more opportunity last year.
However, the biggest issue remains the timing of not just his extension, but of his teammates. The Pacers will have the Bird rights of all of their free agents, from bench contributors like Obi Toppin to top scorers like Siakam. At the same time, the Pacers have never paid the luxury tax. Would they start now?
The two most likely approaches are clear. Either Indiana continues to go all in on a group that nearly won the title two years ago and added an excellent starter at a position of need in their gap year, or they pivot to a more youthful identity, one that would likely prioritize Nembhard instead of jettisoning him.
Teams don't usually pivot that heavily into a younger identity unless they are forced to, however, and the price Indiana paid for Zubac and Siakam makes that the more likely path as well.
Sunk cost fallacy is often at the center of some poor decisions in the NBA. The Minnesota Timberwolves traded Karl-Anthony Towns because of the price they had paid for Rudy Gobert. The Milwaukee Bucks find themselves in a terrible spot because they held onto Giannis Antetokounmpo for at least two years too long.
Nembhard is by no means on that level as a player, but losing him would be a devastating blow. Can Indiana split up the 140 million they have below the first apron in two years for seven players in a fair way? No. Clearly no.
But can they afford to lose the guard they built into a valuable playoff starter for nothing? The answer is an equally strong no.
Someone notable will be left to find a new team. So far, it seems most likely for that to be Andrew Nembhard.
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