What if the Indiana Pacers do not make any major moves?

The speculation all summer has been that the Indiana Pacers are set to finally make a big move in some way. Whether they decide to trade their lottery pick for a higher pick or a proven player or if they decide to split up the Turbonis pairing, it feels like something is brewing.

Indiana has not been a staple of success since Paul George left four years ago, leaving the Pacers with a new future that has not panned out. Three head coaches later and the team is looking for answers in a pivotal summer.

What if the Indiana Pacers do nothing this offseason?

Last season, the Pacers were in a similar spot and decided to bring back the same roster while relying on a coaching change to turn things around. That did not happen. With another coaching change this offseason, perhaps Indiana thinks Rick Carlisle is the man who can change their fortunes.

In every trade piece, we hear about how capable the current roster is now that T.J. Warren is returning from injury. Warren is a massive improvement over last season’s wings just by being in the lineup and contributing on both ends of the floor.

Malcolm Brogdon was on an All-Star pace early last season before slumping just a bit before the break. Caris LeVert joined the starting five and became a go-to scorer just months after returning from a major surgery. Domantas Sabonis has earned two consecutive All-Star nods while being a building block for Indiana. Finally, Myles Turner has Defensive Player of the Year potential.

This would lead fans to believe the Pacers are ready to compete in the Eastern Conference to some degree. I do agree with that sentiment as I believe the roster has enough firepower to at least give teams problems in the playoffs and could perhaps win a series.

There are some very good players in Indiana for the upcoming season and although T.J. Warren is up for a new contract after the 2021-22 campaign, the Pacers should be able to afford to bring him back.

Doug McDermott and T.J. McConnell are both set to hit free agency this offseason after having incredible years off the bench. Since we are on the topic of keeping things intact, let’s just pretend the Pacers will retain both of them on fair deals in order to keep the rotation as is.

The only real change that is destined to happen for Indiana is through the 2021 NBA Draft. With reports of them being interested in a trade-up into the top 10, there is reason to believe they fell in love with one of their pre-draft workouts and want to secure that player. The likely candidate for a trade-up seems to be Moses Moody.

So, let’s assume the Pacers land Moody in the draft and everything else stays the same. Moody would be the backup to Warren, giving Indiana a second unit of McConnell, Edmond Sumner, Moody, Oshae Brissett, and Goga Bitadze. That’s a very fun group with a bit of everything.

I could not write this without mentioning the risk of trying to win with the same group and not expecting the same problems as years past. Indiana has taken chances on players with injury concerns in hopes that those injuries will subside and give them a good player on a cheap deal. While it has worked in spurts, that notion will never lead to much success if it’s the core of roster-building.

Every single member of the current starting five has a glaring injury history that cannot be overlooked. In the last two seasons, Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis have both battled injuries late in the season and have been unavailable for key matchups. The same goes for Warren, who missed nearly the entire 2020-21 season, and Brogdon who has missed several games with the Pacers.

If this is the plan for next season, the Pacers have to hope for a miracle from a health perspective. I just do not see that changing, leaving the Pacers open to more heartbreak and excuses.