The Indiana Pacers may slip out of a playoff spot with home court advantage before they take the floor again on Friday, but their fate was sealed in January.
Let’s face it. We all know it’s coming. The Indiana Pacers have fought hard but are likely only a game or two away from seeing their homecourt advantage for the playoffs slip away.
The Pacers fate was likely sealed when Victor Oladipo went down in January. From that point on, they lost their clutch time scorer, and with one of the toughest post-All-Star schedules, they’re chances of staying in the fourth seed or higher got much, much more difficult.
Much like when Dr. Cox lost three patients in the “My Lunch” episode of Scrubs, there was just an inevitability to the situation despite their best efforts to prevent a tragedy from getting worse.
The Pacers are frantically trying to keep that hope of home court advantage alive, but fans might feel like Clara watching Dr. Cox on the verge of his breakdown.
However, unlike Dr. Cox, Indiana didn’t per se make a decision the ultimately led to their fate. The cruel nature of injuries and the increasing difficulty of the schedule combined into an equation that even this Indiana team that refuses to give in can’t overcome.
The 5 stages of grief: Pacers edition
Things have changed for the Pacers since going Oladipo-less, that is obvious.
As far as net rating goes, Indiana was the 4th best team in the NBA before Oladipo was ruled out of the season. A 109.8 offensive rating minus a 104.1 defensive rating meant the Pacers were outscoring opponents by 5.7 points per 100 possessions.
But now? They’re down to 16th, and only 0.2 net rating (108.0 – 107.8 = 0.2). There is hardly any room for error within each game.
Without Oladipo, Indiana is a .500 team.
The Kübler-Ross model provides us with a guide of what Pacers have gone through since Oladipo went down, especially in regards to their place in the standings.
- Denial: These Pacers will find a way to hold on to 3rd.
- Anger: Why did coach Nate McMillan do X? Why not Y. It cost the Pacers the game!
- Bargaining: If we sacrifice Boomer, will the basketball gods fix things?
- Depression: The realization that the Celtics and 76ers are going to finish ahead.
- Acceptance: The Pacers were destined to slide down the standings.
No matter where you are on the model, you ultimately know, and probably knew for a while, that Indiana’s chances of keeping home court were always were slim.
What is dead may never die
But the Pacers fate in the standings doesn’t mean their season is over. The pressure of holding on to the spot will be gone unless they do happen to fight their way back up. It may actually be a good thing for the Pacers to accept an underdog role.
Like the saying of the Drowned God in Game of Thrones, what is dead may never die, but rises again, harder and stronger.
A matchup with the Boston Celtics isn’t the worse thing for Indiana. Despite their plane ride, the Celtics are only playing slightly better basketball than Indiana. They are rightly the favorites in a potential playoff series, but with possible chemistry issues brewing under the surface, anything is possible.
And even if they aren’t a volatile locker room, Indiana only needs to figure out how to beat them four times. The season series is tied 1-1, with the Pacers winning an early season game and the Celtics more recently beating a Myles Turner-less Indiana team. Their next meeting on March 29th should give more insight into whether Indiana is capable of beating them in a series.
But if ultimately Oladipo’s injury destined their playoff spot being 5th or worse, it came long enough ago in the season that Indiana has a chance to figure out how to get the most of their remaining players — to rise again, harder and stronger.
It’s a tough task for Indiana no matter who they face in the playoffs, but their path to their ultimate playoff seeding might get a little easier once the pressure of holding their ground is taken away.