Myles Turner and the battle of expectations for the Indiana Pacers

Myles Turner’s second year is looking like his best in the NBA as he hasn’t developed how anyone expected him too, much less the Indiana Pacers.

The battle of expectations is why an 8-6 Pacers team is disappointing some fans and why things sound a little dire from the team even after road losses to some of the NBA’s best. It’s also why Myles Turner’s critics are ready to throw out the word “bust” and “failure.”

He was supposed to be better than this. He was better in his second season when he made over half his shots and averaged 14.5 points and 7.3 rebounds a game. Now in his fourth year as a pro, he shoots 48.4 percent from the field while averaging 10.9 points and 5.8 rebounds.

It’s too easy and lazy — and often just wrong — to theorize about mental fragility or something like that. Any time a player isn’t playing well it takes away any real effort to diagnose what’s wrong by just calling them weak mentally or physically.

The fact Turner isn’t developing as expected is one thing. ESPN’s Zach Lowe was as excited as any of us about his potential. But the fact that offensively Turner is regressing is the real concern.

Turner’s defense is still top-notch, but his offense is wanting. He’s attempting fewer shots at the rim and more in the short mid-range areas that don’t help spread the floor all that much for the Pacers. He’s attempting the second-fewest 3-point attempts in his career while posting a career-worst 12.5 percent from deep.

Despite all this, his on-court +/- is the best of his career, according to Basketball-Reference. A testament to his defense, if nothing else. However, with Victor Oladipo and Bojan Bogdanovic seeing their numbers up as well in that department (Thaddeus Young’s are the same, Darren Collison’s are down), it isn’t as if that proved the critics wrong. It doesn’t make his defenders right, either.

Confidence, expectations, and Myles Turner

Is it in Myles Turner’s head? Is that all? Is that expressed in a hesitation to hoist up 3-pointers from deep? Is it all about his mentality? Is he feeling pressure mounting as Domantas Sabonis continues to improve?

What may be most troubling his seeing his rebounding drop. His numbers weren’t great, to begin with, but his rebounding percentage went from 17 percent (around the NBA average) to 12.4 percent, which puts him in the 12th percentile.

He was supposed to be better than this. And even though his defense keeps him on the court, the expectations of him doing more loom overhead.

It’s hard to know exactly what’s happening. Most young players don’t regress like this. It isn’t as if he never played well. There was a reason for all the hype. He’s only 22 years old.

But so is Sabonis. And Sabonis is showing growth. Domas may struggle on defense at times but his offense is there already. And with that, he puts pressure on the Pacers to make a move. He’s got holes in his game, just like Turner, but his career is trending in the right direction.

It’s still too early to think about giving up on Turner — his contract extension tells us that — but the question is becoming what to make of Myles.

Expectations can warp reality, but they still affect it. For Turner, his offensive regression overshadows his defense, and ultimately gives the impression of failure.

Turner, as a player, isn’t bad. But he is expected to be more.

His contract and stats put him in Clint Capela territory, but his offense is far from what the Houston Rockets center can do. And if Turner can’t reach another level offensively, then the expectations for Turner will prove too much.

And if Turner doesn’t make that leap, then the Indiana Pacers won’t either. And if they don’t, another 48-win season might feel like a letdown.