The Indiana Pacers and NBA2k19: A tale of woe

Various media outlets have the Indiana Pacers finishing the season in a wide variety of places. Let’s figure out what to expect from the team using NBA 2K19.

The Indiana Pacers are coming off a season in which they surpassed all but the highest expectations, finishing 48-34 en route to the five seed in the East. Despite losing in seven games to the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Pacers looked impressive throughout the series. Experts still haven’t quite figured out how to feel about the Pacers coming into 2018-19, so I decided I’d let NBA 2K19 tell me how to feel by simulating the Pacers season over and over again until I found the most likely result. Let’s hop right in.

Attempt 1: 

My first look at the Pacers roster! Given last year’s 48 win season, I’m hopeful that all of the non-Oladipo Pacers will be rated well and get the recognition they deserve given their contributions last year. This was a poor choice. Thaddeus Young (rated 78 overall), Cory Joseph (74), and Doug McDermott (73) are key pieces of the rotation and are all (to me) fairly underrated. In any sense, these numbers are not good for their role in this simulation. I don’t feel so great about this now. 

Record: 43-39 

Well, that’s not great. I allowed myself the temporary hope of this record being related to an injury or a bad trade, but the team made no moves. It was a very healthy year, with everyone but Darren Collison (57) and Domantas Sabonis (61) playing 70 or more games. Oladipo was the defensive player of the year and an All-Star starter, and Tyreke Evans won 6th man of the year averaging 20 ppg (and playing all 82 games!). Nothing happened that explains a 48 win team that upgraded multiple spots on the bench winning 5 fewer games, but let’s call it bad luck and move along.

43 wins were good enough for a second consecutive year of the five seed and netted a matchup against the 76ers. Unfortunately, DC missed the whole series, and the Pacers lost four games to one. Bummer, but maybe understandable being down a starting point guard. In the end, the Raptors beat the Rockets 4-2 to take home the title. Let’s quit, delete, start, and try again.

Attempt 2: 

Coming off the sting of another first-round playoff exit, my expectations for this team are still solid. 

Record: 43-39

Really? Okay, what happened? Super healthy, no roster moves, Victor Oladipo is first team all defense, everything looks normal. So why are the Indiana Pacers winning so few games? It’s odd.

43 wins got the Pacers the four seed this year, and their foe is the overachieving Chicago Bulls. I can taste the second round already, let’s do this thing.

[1 minute later]

How in the world did the Pacers lose to the Bulls, in six games no less? Ugh. No one got injured, the team just lost. Okay then. Another year, another first-round exit, and another Raptors title as they took down the Thunder in seven games. Time to break this funk. Third time’s the charm! 

Attempt 3: 

I refuse to be beaten down. This is a good Indiana Pacers team.

Record: 43-39

I’m starting to think that the NAB 2K19 game might not be big fans of this Pacers team. They did fight through some adversity, at least. Myles Turner only played 51 games, and Domas only played 43. Both were back for the playoffs, as the Pacers yet again grabbed the five seed. Unfortunately, Thad Young got injured right before the playoffs began, and the Pacers fell to the four seed Sixers 4-2.

A third straight mediocre 43-39 record, a third straight first-round exit. But at least there was a different end result with the Warriors taking the Raps down 4-1. 

Attempt 4: 

I would accept another 43-39 record in exchange for a second round appearance. Something. Anything new. 

Record: 47-35

Now we’re talking. I’m sad enough to accept 1 win less than last year’s team as a victory. Oladipo was an all-star reserve and made the all-defensive first team for the fourth straight simulation. The Pacers made no roster moves, also for the fourth straight time. Somehow, 47 wins was still the fifth seed in the East. With no Tyreke Evans (who only played 47 games for the year), the good guys again fell to the Sixers in the first round, 4-2.

I’m starting to take this personally. The Warriors beat the Raptors for the title for the second straight sim 4-2 this time.

Attempt 5: 

It’s time. The Pacers will make the 2nd round this time. I just feel it. 

Record: 44-38

Well. At least it’s not 43-39. Tyreke brought home the 6th man of the year award, and Oladipo racked up his usual simulated awards. Vic finished as an All Star, third team all NBA, and first team all defense. The team had decent health. Seemed like a pretty solid season, given these low NBA 2K19 standards. Let’s check on the playoff situation… 

Seventh seed. With 44 wins. The Pacers finished behind the Bulls, the Magic, and the Heat, and drew a short straw in matching up with the Raptors in the first round. Unsurprisingly, the Raptors handled the Pacers in round one, winning 4-1 on the way to yet another finals loss to Golden State. The Pacers lost DC to start the playoffs; it likely wouldn’t have mattered, but it certainly didn’t help. 

Attempt 6: 

There’s no hope. The 2017-18 cowboy hat screaming joy filled run is a mirage. 

Record: 46-36

Okay. Getting better. Tyreke led the team in scoring (less than a point above Oladipo, but noteworthy). The Indiana Pacers experienced excellent health and rolled into the playoffs on a five-game winning streak. They were the 4th seed.

This was the year! It took six attempts, but the Pacers finally made the second round, beating Milwaukee in six games. The fun continued through the first three games of the second round against Toronto, as the Pacers led 2-1 after game three. Unfortunately, the Raptors won the next three games on their way to knocking out the Pacers in seven. Still, the squad won a playoff series, finally. Maybe things will normalize now. 

Attempt 7: 

Let’s do this! 

Record: 38-44

Ugh. Okay, let’s see: Oladipo is first team all defense (and an All-Star), Reke won sixth-man again. Bojan Bogdanovic only played 19 games with a broken leg, and wound up missing the playoffs, as did Thad Young (additionally, Kyle O’Quinn missed 6 games). 

Wait. Playoffs? At 38-44?

(Double Checks).

The 38-44 Indiana Pacers wound up with the seventh seed, somehow. Going into Milwaukee without Bojan and Thad Young, the Pacers… upset the Bucks in six? Nice.

They lost KOQ in game six and rolled into round two against Philly minus most of their frontcourt. The Pacers fell 4-2, but I’ll take two straight simulations getting out of the first round. The Warriors wound up going fo’ fo’ fo’ fo’ on their way to a 16-0 playoff run, defeating the aforementioned Sixers for the title. They are, uh, really good. 

Attempt 8: 

Two straight second-round appearances, let’s gooooooooo. Let’s make it three!

Record: 40-42

Okay. This isn’t necessarily a disaster, as we saw with the last simulation. Tyreke and Oladipo continued to excel, racking up the same awards (Tyreke 6th man, Dipo All Star and 1st team all defense). The Indiana Pacers actually made a trade! They flipped Doug McDermott and C.J. Wilcox for Kyle Korver, and signed Joe Johnson for just over $5 million to round out the roster. 

Health was a major issue, as Aaron Holiday played just 25 games and Thad Young (28, and missed the playoffs), Myles Turner (56), and CoJo (65) all missed significant time. The Indiana Pacers yet again finished with the 7th seed, and were swept by the Celtics in the first round.

Meanwhile, Paul George and the Thunder wound up beating those Celtics in seven games to secure their first title. 

Attempt 9: 

I have no idea how to feel about this.

Record: 36-46

Yikes. The Pacers suffered major injury issues, with Thad Young, Tyreke Evans, and Myles Turner all missing more than half the season. The Pacers did make an interesting trade, flipping Cory Joseph and Bojan Bogdanovic for Reggie Jackson and Reggie Bullock. Somehow, the Pacers managed to squeak into the playoffs with only 36 wins.

They faced off against the Raps yet again, in the 1-versus-8 matchup. Defying all odds, they took a 3-1 lead over Kawhi’s Raptors, but lost in seven as Reggie Jackson was unable to play. The Warriors overcame the Raptors in seven games to take home the title. That means the Pacers were only 1 game worse than the champs, right? That’s what I’m going with. 

Attempt 10: 

This is lunacy. 

Record: 45-37

Okay! We can work with this. The blue and gold started 13-3, were 10 games over .500 at the All Star break, and took the five seed in a weird playoff group. The Hawks (4 seed), Heat (6), Nets (7), and Pistons (8) all managed to make the playoffs in the East, while the Sixers finished 32-50 despite being healthy. NBA 2K19 is weird. 

Oladipo and Tyreke did their thing, winning their normal accolades, and the team was exceptionally healthy. The Pacers showed up big in the first round, beating the Trae Young led Hawks 4-2 before getting swept by the eventual champion Raptors in round two. Things could be worse. 

Random notes of (mild) interest that I gathered from this exercise: 

• I feel this team is wildly undervalued by the guys who made NBA 2K19. Their entire starting lineup outside of Oladipo is rated at 80 or worse, and their second unit is flat out bad. 
• Victor Oladipo and Tyreke Evans are an awesome pairing. Oladipo made first-team all-defense 10/10 times, was an All-Star six times, and was DPOY once. Tyreke Evans averaged nearly 20 points per game every year, and won 6th man of the year a fitting six times while remaining mostly healthy. This duo could be nasty on the real court. 
• Myles Turner regressed. He never averaged more than 13 points or seven rebounds in any of the simulations. Domantas Sabonis is only rated 1 point worse and statistically outperformed him nearly every season. 
• Ultimately, this was a silly exercise in a silly game that doesn’t necessarily value the little things guys like Cory Joseph and Thad Young bring to the table. If both perform as well as they did last year (and Douggie McBuckets isn’t a total disaster), the team will likely be better than this exercise showed. Here’s hoping that’s the truth and that NBA 2K19 is wrong.
• Final Tally: the Indiana Pacers averaged just under 43 wins in 10 runs. They made the second round only three times and never made it any further. I think the Pacers will be better than 43 wins, but getting out of the first round will be a battle, and getting out of the 2nd round will be much harder.