Indiana Pacers salary series: Cory Joseph

INDIANAPOLIS, IN - JANUARY 31: Cory Joseph #6 of the Indiana Pacers handles the ball against the Memphis Grizzlies on January 31, 2018 at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Ron Hoskins/NBAE via Getty Images)
INDIANAPOLIS, IN - JANUARY 31: Cory Joseph #6 of the Indiana Pacers handles the ball against the Memphis Grizzlies on January 31, 2018 at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2018 NBAE (Photo by Ron Hoskins/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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Cory Joseph of the Indiana Pacers
NEW YORK, NY – NOVEMBER 5: Cory Joseph #6 of the Indiana Pacers handles the ball against the New York Knicks on November 5, 2017, at Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York. (Photo by Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images) /

What contract comes next for Cory Joseph?

I think about this question a lot.

I think the level of player Cory Joseph is has been established. He just turned 27 and has seven seasons under his belt being the scrappy ball stopper that he is. Outside of varying incremental improvements as his basketball IQ and shooting improve, he isn’t going to get much better than he is now.

More from 8 Points, 9 Seconds

Next summer, Joseph will still be 27, and he will probably be somewhere between the 25th and 30th best point guard in the league. For a tanking team, that is a valuable player as you can start him and not win too many games. For a competing team, that is a useful player who can come off the bench and make your second unit strong. The market for CoJo’s services will be large.

Compile that with the fact that the Pacers will have a massive gap at the point guard position (both Joseph and Darren Collison are free agents next summer) and suddenly Joseph has some leverage.

Indiana has his bird rights, in theory giving them a leg up on everyone. But here’s the catch:

In order to keep those rights, which would allow the Pacers to sign Joseph even if they are over the cap, they have to keep his cap hold on the salary cap ledger. Joseph’s cap hold is $15,095,500, which is almost certainly more than he will garner on the free agent market. That means if the Pacers want to retain Joseph over the cap, they have to sacrifice a little bit of cap space.

If they renounce his free agent rights, they lose their leg up on other teams to re-sign him. That makes Joseph’s next contract easier to predict, but it makes the exact team harder to prophesize.

Additionally, Joseph’s next contract could be his last big one. He may pursue a long-term deal to ensure he gets the largest payout possible that pays him through his prime. I would muse a four-year deal in the $40 million range makes the most sense for Joseph, as it balances a fair value for a team and a good value for CoJo.