Do the numbers add up to success for the Indiana Pacers?

As All-Star Weekend and a few games are behind us, we take a look at some of the most telling stats from the Indiana Pacers’ season so far.

The Indiana Pacers fan base were expected to be calculating the odds of snagging the first overall pick when the season began, but now they are figuring out where the Pacers will be seeded in the playoffs. Needless to say, this year’s modest success was unexpected.

Victor Oladipo earned a spot in the All-Star Game this weekend, Domantas Sabonis is a Rising Star, and the Pacers are nine games above .500 with 16 games left to go. Again, these weren’t even thoughts going through fans’ heads back in October. It’s hard — but not impossible — to be optimistic about the direction of the team.

As the post-All-Star segment of the season is on the way, it’s time to take stock in some of the statistics the Pacers tallied this season to figure out what they mean for the team’s future. These aren’t the full picture of the Pacers’ season, but some that shed light on what to expect ahead of them.

53.1% eFG% — 7th in the NBA

Making the most of your chances it what matters as far as offense. No matter what speed a team plays at, scoring efficiently separates the better offenses in the NBA from the rest of the group.

The Pacers do this despite playing in a style that isn’t overly modern.

Despite the fact that the Pacers rank 26th in 3-point field goals attempted, they are one of the more efficient scoring teams in the NBA. While only 29.5% of their points come from 3-pointers, it helps they make 37.13% of their shots from deep, the 6th highest percentage in the league.

When they do shoot 3-pointers, they’re one of the better teams in the NBA as far as accuracy. According to Cleaning the Glass, the Pacers rank in the top-10 in accuracy from most parts of the court, save non-corner 3-pointers (11th) and at the rim (19th).

No team gets more of their points from mid-range than the Pacers, but the Pacers counter that with the third-best fast-break offense in the NBA. Those easy baskets off opponents turnovers are why, surprisingly, they’re ranked 18th in points in the paint.

Even when you look at it from a percentage standpoint, the Pacers only give away 12.3% of their possessions. This is one of the reasons why their offense ranks in the top 10 despite Neanderthalic shot selection.

What hurts Indiana’s offense more than anything is the fact they don’t rebound well as a team. They rank 23rd in the NBA in rebounds. The lack of offensive rebounding is why the Pacers rank in the bottom third in the NBA when it comes to getting points off their own missed shots. Most of the NBA’s best offenses grab more of their own missed shots, making the Pacers — and most surprisingly the Houston Rockets — outliers.

Where the Pacers save themselves, is scoring off turnovers and on fast breaks.

Indiana’s fast break is fueled by forcing 15.2 turnover for opponents, which is 6th in the NBA. They avoid them with their own offense, as their 13.6 turnovers per a game is also ranked 6th. Indiana scores 17.9 points a game off turnovers and often those are fast break buckets, and on average Indiana scores 15.1 points a game those transition baskets.

It’s tough to know what to make of all of that. In some ways, they play a regressive form of basketball that embraces mid-range shots while taking 3-pointers sparingly. Indiana punishes their opponents for mistakes while avoiding them themselves. When Indiana’s defense starts making mistakes or their opponents slow down the Pacers’ offense, the margin for error tightens considerably.

52.6% eFG% for opponents — 17th in the NBA

That 0.5 is a significant difference when it comes to eFG%. While Indiana is one of the more potent offenses in the NBA, they often render their opponents to a more average mark.

This is also part of the reason why the Pacers often end up in close games. Even if the rankings are far apart, teams are still relatively close in efficiency.

3rd toughest schedule remaining

According to Basketball-Reference, the Pacers have the 3rd toughest remaining schedule.

That in itself wouldn’t be too concerning if Indiana had a record better than 16-18 against teams with winning records. 11 of their remaining 16 games pit them against teams with winning records.

That’s why B-R’s formula predicts an 11-12 finish for the Pacers. They’ve defied expectations this entire season, but their road to the playoffs isn’t a smooth one.

But there are a few good things to glean from a deeper dive in the standings.

In games decided by 3 points or fewer, Indiana sports an 8-1 record. They’ve been on both sides of lopsided games as their record in games with a 10-point margin is 16-14. So if you are cheering for a Pacers win, hope for a close game.

Indiana’s uncanny ability to rally back from almost any deficit and grind out close games for wins is a bit of a double-edged sword. Their 37-28 record is impressive, but we know one-possession games are a bit of a coin toss.

Their ability to win close games shows they don’t wilt under pressure, but it also means their ‘overdue’ for losses in games where the bounce of the ball often determines a winner.

And with the Eastern Conference so tightly packed, truly every game matters. Indiana is one game back of the third-place Cleveland Cavaliers, but that’s because despite the fact Indiana, Cleveland, and the Washington Wizards all have 38 wins, the Cavaliers have played two fewer games. Washington is ahead of the Pacers by virtue of leading their division while the Pacers don’t.

It’s a mess alright, so those tiebreakers will come into play as the regular-season winds down.

Indiana is all but assured a spot in the playoffs, but their margin for error for grabbing home court advantage in the first round is slim.

Next: Bojan Bogdanovic is a sniper once again

There are as many potholes on the Pacers road to the playoffs as the roads of Indiana, but a strong finish would just be another surprise in an unexpectedly good season.