The Case for Starting Monarch of the Glenn
By Jon Washburn
We are more of a quarter of the way through season 2 of the Monta Ellis experience, and though he brings an attitude and certain flare to the lineup that the Pacers have lacked for, well, forever, it seems obvious that as of December 12, 2016, Monta Ellis no longer has it all.
I am not here to criticize Ellis’s work ethic (he’s been great and fought through injuries) or character (he’s been a model citizen in Indianapolis); the fact is that his lack of shooting and his defensive limitations can no longer be counterbalanced by the rest of his skill set.
The Pacers have (probably) underperformed so far this year, and it’s time to change the starting lineup. Moving Monta Ellis to the bench is the most obvious solution since this move would (seemingly) give the bench some offensive juice while (conceivably) upgrading the starting unit’s defense and shooting. But who should start in his stead? The only equation that matters is Opportunity Cost + Chemistry + Upside.
The only solution is Glenn Robinson, III.
Opportunity Cost
Opportunity cost is a key concept in economics, and it’s equally important on the basketball floor. Basically, every time you choose to buy (or play) one item (or thing), you are choosing to not buy (or play) another item (or player). If one decides that Monta Ellis should no longer start for the Pacers, then he has to decide who should fill his spot. Presumably, the only options are C. J. Miles, Rodney Stuckey, and Glenn Robinson, III.
GR3 is preferable to both guys for three reasons.
First, he’s excelled in the starting lineup this year, posting averages of 15.2 points and 6.4 rebounds on 49-percent shooting in the five games he’s started (compare this to his overall averages of 6.3 points and 2.7 rebounds on 45-percent shooting)
Second, he’s shooting 39-percent from long range, a mark that is nine points higher than Monta Ellis and fourteen points higher than Rodney Stuckey. But it’s not all about the shooting — if it were, then C. J. Miles would be the opposite answer — it’s about the opportunity cost.
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Miles is a veteran. He’s been on fire all year, regardless of his context. Place Miles in the starting lineup and he will stretch the floor for his teammates. Bring him off the bench, and he will do the exact same thing. Glenn Robinson, III’s game is different. There are certain players that just play better as starters. Consider Andre Roberson for the Thunder last year. Roberson was an incredibly limited offensive player, and teams completely left him alone on that end of the floor. However, he proved to be a dangerous player with Durant and Westbrook because of his ferocious defensive capabilities and because their presence earned him a few more inches to where he could occasionally be dangerous. If Roberson played off the bench, he would have just been another limited offensive player with good athleticism. In the starting lineup, he was a huge net-positive.
Now, here is where you say, “But the Pacers don’t have KD and Westbrook. They don’t have either KD or Westbrook.”
Of course, you would be right. But Glenn Robinson’s game makes a lot more sense as the fifth starter than it does as a bench player for this Indiana Pacers team. With the starters, he provides an immediate defensive versatility (the Pacers could conceivably switch 2-4 with him, Paul George, and Thad Young) and size that they currently lack. He upgrades their shooting, and he doesn’t need the ball as much as Monta Ellis does to be a threat. Further, he has been thriving in the starting lineup this year, while also struggling off the bench.If Glenn Robinson plays better with the starters than he does off the bench, and C. J. Miles provides the same consistent level of play no matter where he’s playing, then the net-gain from starting Robinson would conceivably also give the Pacers the highest possible boost.
If Glenn Robinson plays better with the starters than he does off the bench, and C. J. Miles provides the same consistent level of play no matter where he’s playing, then the net-gain from starting Robinson would conceivably also give the Pacers the highest possible boost.
Chemistry
I don’t think Monta Ellis has been bad from a chemistry standpoint, and I actually wouldn’t mind if he (or Stuckey) continued to close games for the Pacers.
However, Robinson’s inclusion in the starting lineup would most likely raise the usage rates of Indiana’s two best offensive players — Jeff Teague and Paul George. His presence would stretch the floor around those two guys more than Ellis, and his defensive versatility would enable Paul George to occasionally rest from defending the other team’s best player every minute he’s in the game.
Upside
Offensively, I think that C. J. Miles would make the Pacers’ starting lineup slightly more dangerous than GRIII. He’s that good of a shooter, and his off-the-bounce game is underrated. However, he’s also 29 years old and injury prone. One could make a compelling argument that Miles should come off the bench if only to save his body. But further, at this point, we all know what we have in C. J. Miles. While he may be this same, consistent knock-down shooter for the next five years, Glenn Robinson just turned 23, and he’s shown flashes that would greatly benefit the Pacers in the long run.
It’s possible that Robinson is not going to be an NBA rotation player (I mused as much this pre-season myself), but wouldn’t it be good to really discover what you have in him? If he busts, then the team can move on.
But he might hit, and if he does, then the Pacers have another young starter to play around Paul George and Myles Turner, and potentially one more reason for Paul George to stay when he looks at his free agent options.
Does this move the needle?
Honestly, I’m not sure. GRob might not be ready, and he might never be ready. But looking forward, even if you think Monta Ellis can turn it around this year, what are you really hoping to get from him next year and the year after? I think Monta could thrive as a bench spark plug. Jamal Crawford has shone brightly in the twilight of his career in such a role, and while Crawford is a far superior shooter to Ellis, it’s not hard to envision Ellis lighting up opposing bench units with Al Jefferson and C. J. Miles. Robinson’s addition to the starting lineup also gives the bench a real identity. Big Al post ups surrounded by Miles’s spacing and Ellis’s slashing just might be devastating from night to night.
It also might flop. That’s a real possibility. But I think the status quo is broken, and since it’s broken, then you might as well try to fix it.