Indiana Pacers (1-2) vs Milwaukee Bucks (1-2)
In February the Indiana Pacers were in the depths of The Struggle to the point that coach Frank Vogel decided the starters needed a rest and that the back-ups would get plenty of playing time.
The Pacers didn’t give up any ground in the playoff race thanks to a game-winner by Chris Copeland and a great game by the reserves.
So maybe tonight when the current group of Indiana starters takes the floor, they should fair well against Milwaukee. Maybe. It doesn’t help either that after playing a back-to-back and losing both games the Pacers had two days of rest before another busy week as they start off a pair of back-to-backs this week with the Bucks.
The NBA schedule is tough at times, but the good news is the Pacers won’t have to play four games in five days again this season. Point being, this could be an ugly week of games considering the lack of depth and the cluster of games.
Indiana won all four of their games against the Bucks last year, but Larry Sanders wasn’t in any of those games, nor was Jabari Parker in the NBA. However, going back two years, a Roy Hibbert vs. Sanders match up has been mostly a draw, but Hibbert did have a 20+ point game against Sanders two seasons ago. I think this match up this year could be favorable to Hibbert again, but Luis Scola vs. Jabari Parker could be a blood bath defensively.
For the Pacers starting line up as a whole, defense has been problematic. They’ve hemorrhaged points despite Hibbert playing well, as the rest of the starters have 100+ defensive ratings.
More troubling in that account may be the fact their offense hasn’t been stellar either. An 84.0 offensive rating coupled with a 113.5 defense rating equals a net of -29.5 points a game. That’s not going to cut it.
So how have the Pacers stayed in games? The unconventional line up of Rodney Stuckey, Chris Copeland, Damjan Rudez, Lavoy Allen, and Ian Mahinmi. They have been the opposite of the starting line up as they feast against their counterparts to the tune of a 128 offensive rating, an 85.8 defensive rating for a net of 42.5. Those two lineups have been the most used so far by Vogel.
It isn’t as easy as just switching around a few parts as I’d imagine the second unit’s numbers wouldn’t be nearly as favorable against a starting line up if you are just expecting Vogel to switch a few parts. However, it is worth seeing how the line up may be shuffled. But we may not see it tonight against the Bucks as Stuckey is listed as questionable.
But back to why this matters against the Bucks. Milwaukee’s starting line up has been steady in their offense and defense, though the separation between the two is too slim for consistent results with net rating of 2.2. The starters may fair well against a young line up still trying to get traction, but O.J. Mayo and Milwaukee’s second unit may be more of a difficult match up for Indiana’s reserves. A year ago Mayo was playing himself out of the league but so far this year he’s averaging 15 points on 50% shooting while also playing defense at a very 2013-14 Pacer like level with a 90.2 defensive rating. While I’m not sold on how well either’s starting unit will play, I’m worried the second unit advantage we’ve seen the Pacers leverage may not be the same even if Stuckey plays.
The Pacers back court will need to keep an eye on Brandon Knight due to his 19.7 points a game. He’s sparked the Milwaukee offense with his assists too while holding down the fort on defense so there is little to complain about through his first three games.
Who to watch on the Bucks: O.J. Mayo has been playing well to start the season and how he and the rest of the Bucks’ reserves fair against Indiana’s could determine if the Pacers can stay in the game. Jarryd Bayless is another concern for Indiana as far as the Bucks bench is concerned. He dropped 20 points in a loss to the Wizards on Sunday.
Who to watch on the Pacers: Frank Vogel and the starting line up. There aren’t any hints of anything, but I’d be curious after the first three games if he’ll experiment more with his line ups. The Bucks have more talent than you might expect so they have an ability to shuffle the line up around it a lot of ways to their liking. I’m interested what moves Vogel does or doesn’t make.
The Big Question
How many turnovers will the Indiana Pacers have? The Pacers have had 18 a game so far this season and that is not a rate you can expect to have if you want to win. Scola has been responsible for four a game so far this year, mostly from missing passes. That may just be from the starting line-up coming together, but he can’t continue to do that as a stater.
Betting Line
Vegas Insider has the Pacers as a -4 favorite and a over/under of 192. I don’t trust the Pacers enough to take them, but I wouldn’t bet on the Bucks either… so I take the Pacers because they are at home.
One Random Thing
This isn’t really important, but I’m from Huntington, WV and so is O.J. Mayo. One night in college a friend of mine saw a guy across the club and went to go hit on him. Turned out it was Mayo. While he seemed to express interest, she had no interest in being a “jersey chaser”, in her words… or hitting on a high school student. Teen drinking is very bad.