Tyrese Haliburton's return is the most exciting bit of news the Indiana Pacers have had since they made the Finals and nearly won the franchise's first NBA championship just two short years ago.
Does it not feel that short to you? Well, that makes sense. They went all of the 25-26 season without their superstar point guard, and now are hoping that his return reignites the fire in a team that was once so good.
The Pacers franchise and front office so clearly believe in Haliburton to attain that level of play, betting everything on this era of Pacers basketball by going all in at last year's trade deadline for Ivica Zubac.
However, that belief seemingly does not extend to extensions. While Pacers GM Chad Buchanan has already said that he has no interest in looking at any of the team's soon-to-be extension-eligible core.
It seems weirdest of all that Haliburton, whom this team clearly both relies on and believes in, is to be extension-eligible with three more years on his contract. Why would Indiana pay out for someone who is already on the longest and biggest deal on the team's books?
Well, timing is everything.
There is something to be said for getting a deal done sooner rather than later, as contract numbers are tied to the monetary amounts promised at the moment of pen hitting paper, not according to the percentage of the cap (which is what they truthfully should be).
Simply, the sooner you get an extension done, the better it will look many years down the road if those players can keep a similar level of play.
The same is true for Haliburton; if he returns at his max contract level, getting him to an extension now would be a steal. However, if Haliburton is not at that level, a max contract for a player not worth it is an absolute death sentence in the modern NBA.
Poorly aged early extensions killed more eras than anyone could expect
Remember John Wall? Remember how electric he was? How good he was? How he went toe-to-toe with a prime LeBron James? How he made the Washington Wizards – the Wizards who were so bad that fans forgot they existed – a playoff mainstay?
Yeah, me too bud.
It was not just Wall's supermax that killed the Wizards, but his injuries alongside that dreadful deal. The Kentucky guard went from losing a season for a heel injury to tearing his Achilles tendon by falling down the stairs of his home.
Haliburton will be returning from the same injury that rapidly ended Wall's career and will be making more over the next three years than Wall did over the entirety of that four-year supermax.
Maybe that's what scares Indiana more than anything else. They can say they believe in Hali, but don't actually want to risk the money on it.
The biggest difference in Tyrese's next extension from the front office perspective is this: if Haliburton returns to full strength, Indiana will likely need to spend around 10 million more per year on his next deal. If he fails to, and has already gotten his extension, that would be over 30-40 million in negative value.
That juice is not worth the squeeze.
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