During the regular season, the Indiana Pacers ranked in the top five with 30.4 made two-point field goals, and they shot 56.8% from inside the arc. In the NBA Finals so far, that number has dropped to 22 such field goal makes, which is less than ideal for the Pacers and is proof that the Oklahoma City Thunder's smothering defense is making them uncomfortable.
Heading into the series, one of the key matchups to watch was Oklahoma City's defense vs. Indiana's offense. The Thunder not only had the best defense in the regular season, but they had one of the best defenses the league has seen in recent history. However, the Pacers are well-equipped to counter their defense, largely because of their fast pace and elite ball movement. So far, however, the advantage goes to the Thunder, who have done an exceptional job of getting the Pacers out of the paint and making life difficult for them.
There is still a lot of basketball left, and it is far from over for Indiana, especially as they host Games 3 and 4 with the series tied. However, they were the underdogs in this series for a reason, and unless they make the adjustments needed (which may very well not even matter against the Thunder), there will be virtually no way for them to pull off the upset.
The Pacers need to do more offensively
If the Pacers do not change up their strategy for scoring inside the arc, then they need to be lights-out from the perimeter. Through the first two games of the series, they are shooting 40.5% from beyond the arc. That is not bad at all, but there are two problems with it. First, they shot just 35% from three-point land in Game 2 and lost by 16 points. Second, if most of their scoring is going to come from behind the line, then almost 41% efficiency will not cut it, especially against the Thunder.
A lot of Indiana's offensive struggles simply come down to how elite the Thunder are defensively. They have a lot of versatility on the defensive side of the ball as they can make things difficult at every level. Additionally, they have defensive depth, which will make things difficult for the Pacers regardless of who is on the court. Even so, the Pacers are in the NBA Finals for a reason, and they need their shots to start falling at all costs. They proved in Game 1 that the Thunder are beatable, but they need to execute their gameplan much better.
Two specific players to keep an eye on for the Pacers are Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner. Oklahoma City has done a great job of neutralizing Haliburton as a scorer by taking the ball out of his hands as much as possible. Furthermore, even when he has the ball, the Thunder have made life difficult for him. Through the first two games, he is averaging 15.5 points while shooting 33.3% from the three-point line. The Pacers are a much better team when Haliburton shoots aggressively, but the Thunder are making that option virtually impossible for them, so this is a big obstacle they need to overcome.
As for Turner, he is shooting 30% from beyond the arc in the series and 22% on wide-open three-point field goal attempts. The Texas native is getting his opportunities, but the shots aren't falling. As the Pacers look to pull off the upset, they will need more out of their long-time center.
The Pacers are just three wins away from an NBA Championship, but they still have a lot of problems to fix. If they can't fix their problems, especially the ones that Oklahoma City created for them, then it might be just about impossible for them to win it all this year.