Pacers vs. Bucks series odds make massive shift towards Indiana

Oddsmakers are starting to believe the Pacers can get past the No. 3 Bucks in the playoffs.
Jan 3, 2024; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indiana Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton (0) shoots the ball against Milwaukee.
Jan 3, 2024; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indiana Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton (0) shoots the ball against Milwaukee. / Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
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Just from a seeding perspective, it would seem like an upset if the No. 6 Indiana Pacers were to defeat the No. 3 Milwaukee Bucks in the first round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs. 

However, bookmakers don’t believe that outcome is too far-fetched as the odds continue to shift toward the lower-seeded Pacers. 

When the NBA playoff series odds were released earlier this week, the lower-seeded Pacers were a +140 underdog against the Bucks. As of Wednesday afternoon, the Pacers have now moved to even money (+100), with a 50% chance of taking out Milwaukee and advancing to the second round, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. 

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Pacers vs. Bucks series odds shift toward Indiana

Why did the odds change? There could be a few reasons. 

For starters, Milwaukee backed its way into the playoffs in the second half of the regular season. The Bucks were 30-13 when they parted ways with head coach Adrian Griffin. Under Doc Rivers, Milwaukee went just 17-20 lost its control on the No. 2 seed in the east, and settled for the No. 3 slot. 

Milwaukee ended the regular season on a 3-8 stretch.

Secondly, there are injury concerns for Milwaukee star center Giannis Antetokounmpo, who missed the final three regular-season games with a left calf strain. Antetokounmpo is expected to miss the start of the series. 

Lastly, Indiana had Milwaukee’s number during the regular season, going 4-1 against the Bucks. All five of those matchups were before Griffin was replaced by Rivers, too, with the last meeting on Jan. 3, a 142-130 Pacers’ home victory. Indiana’s high-octane offense averaged 131.6 points per game against Milwaukee. 

Indiana Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton (0) averaged 27 points in five games against the Milwaukee Bucks during the regular season.
Indiana Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton (0) averaged 27 points in five games against the Milwaukee Bucks during the regular season. / Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Series tips off Sunday

With Antetokounmpo expected to be sidelined for the series-opener Sunday afternoon, the Pacers are currently a 1-point favorite (-116 money line) in Game 1 at Fiserv Forum. If they remain the favorite, it would mark just the fifth time this season that Milwaukee is a home underdog (3-1 ATS). 

Indiana went just 21-20 on the road during the regular season but covered 53.9% of those games. Milwaukee went 31-11 straight up at home and 19-21-1 ATS. 


Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.