Bucks vs. Pacers NBA expert prediction and odds for Eastern Conference playoffs Game 4

Apr 26, 2024; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indiana Pacers forward Pascal Siakam (43) shoots the ball
Apr 26, 2024; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indiana Pacers forward Pascal Siakam (43) shoots the ball / Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

The Pacers took control of its first round series against the Bucks on Friday evening with an overtime win against the Central Division champions, going up 2-1 in the series.

Indiana, who entered the series as the healthier squad, will face a short-handed Bucks team in Game 4, who won't have Giannis Antetokounmpo again, and Damian Lillard as well. Lillard's Achilles injury flared up in Game 3 and will hold him out of Sunday's matchup, sending the Pacers out to even bigger favorites at home.

Can the Pacers avoid a letdown against a short-handed Bucks team? Here's our full betting breakdown.

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Bucks vs. Pacers Odds, Spread and Total

Bucks vs. Pacers How to Watch

  • Date: Sunday, April 28th
  • Game Time: 7:00 PM EST
  • Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
  • How to Watch (TV): TNT

Bucks vs. Pacers Injury Reports

Bucks Injury Report

  • Khris Middleton - Ankle - Probable
  • Damian Lillard - Achilles - OUT
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo - Calf - OUT

Pacers Injury Report


Bucks vs. Pacers Key Players to Watch

Milwaukee Bucks

Khris Middleton: With Lillard battling an injury, Middleton did a ton of the heavy lifting in the near-win on Friday, scoring 42 points including a pair of game-tying threes in the fourth quarter and overtime. Middleton was on the injury report with an ankle injury, but is expected to play, can he follow it up with Lillard on the sidelines next to Antetokounmpo?

Indiana Pacers

Tyrese Haliburton: Haliburton had the game winning floater in Game 3, as he has played better in each game this series. After struggling with the Bucks physicality in Game 1, he has combined for 30 points, 14 rebounds and 28 assists in the last two games. While he hasn't been shooting that efficiently in the series, 41% from the field and 22% from three, but he has found his footing with each passing game.

Bucks vs. Pacers Prediction and Pick

With the news of Lillard missing Game 3, the Pacers are now overwhelming favorites to take a commanding 3-1 series lead, but instead of betting on Indiana to win by double digits, I'm eyeing the total.

Lillard's presence on the floor has warped the Pacers defense and has opened up shooting pockets for the likes of Middleton and Bobby Portis. Milwaukee has tried to slow this game into the half court, and use Lillard's gravity to win the game in the half court.

Without the sharp shooting guard, I expect the Bucks to find clear avenues to success on offense, but for the team to lean on its defense and continue to slow this game to a crawl. The Bucks succeeded in Game 3 by slowing the game down, playing at a pace of 89 possessions per 48 minutes, which would be far and away the slowest in the regular season.

I expect the team to implement the same game plan in Game 4, which did help (slowly) erase a double digit first half deficit, but the team's offense to fail to keep up.

I believe we see another slow-paced affair and for Indiana to win, but under the listed total.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.