In what could be a massive mistake, the Indiana Pacers traded their 2026 first-round pick to the Los Angeles Clippers as part of the Ivica Zubac-Bennedict Mathurin swap. The pick is heavily protected (Indiana keeps it if it falls between 1-4 and 10-30), but there is still a real chance it ends up with the Clippers anyway.
According to Tankathon.com, the Pacers, who are 15-40 and own the fourth-worst record in the NBA, have a 48.1% of landing a top-four pick. They also have just a 12.5% chance of securing the first overall pick as it stands.
There is still a lot of basketball left, and it's hard to think the Pacers are truly going to regret this trade when they got their new starting center of the future in Zubac. But whether they are going to draft someone like Darryn Peterson, Cam Boozer, or AJ Dybantsa vs. not having a first-round pick at all in one of the most loaded classes in recent NBA history might come down to a coin flip. And that's a scary thought.
Regardless, even if Indiana does end up losing this year's pick, it won't all be bad. Sure, they won't be able to pair Tyrese Haliburton with a legitimate game-changer who can help redefine this era of Pacers basketball, but they have a bright future either way.
There's a lot to like about Indiana's long-term outlook as is. Even if they don't get anybody from this year's draft, they're still going to be title contenders for a long time. And they should have an opportunity to prove that as soon as next season.
The Pacers will be legitimate title contenders for a while
This season has mostly been a disappointment for Indiana, even under the circumstances of Haliburton's absence and Myles Turner's offseason departure. Many thought they would still have a chance to be a Play-In team, but injuries, players figuring out their new roles, and just overall lackluster basketball make this seem like a pipedream.
However, the Pacers are fresh off their first NBA Finals appearance in over two decades, and they have what it takes to make it back.
The most obvious positive for them is that they will likely have Haliburton back on the court at the start of next season. It remains to be seen whether he's going to be the same All-NBA-caliber guy right away, but just having him back in any capacity will be huge for the Pacers. He is the engine of their offense, and it's clear they miss him a lot this season.
Furthermore, even beyond Haliburton, the Pacers have an incredibly talented roster. Pascal Siakam became a four-time All-Star this year, Andrew Nembhard has turned it up another level as their full-time point guard this season, and Aaron Nesmith should get back into form with the Wisconsin native feeding him.
Plus, Jarace Walker seems to finally be figuring things out and could be in line for more opportunities, Obi Toppin might be back on the court soon, and Ivica Zubac will be a huge help to Indiana on the defensive end and on the boards.
The Pacers also have an elite coaching staff and front office, and they have the benefit of playing in an Eastern Conference that still looks to be wide-open.
Outside of maybe the Boston Celtics and Detroit Pistons (the top two seeds in the East), there isn't anybody in the East that Indiana should be afraid of.
The New York Knicks look good, but the Pacers sent them home packing in each of the last two seasons and shouldn't be intimidated by them, regardless of their talent. Even with James Harden on the roster, the Cleveland Cavaliers can't be trusted in the playoffs yet. And teams like the Toronto Raptors, Philadelphia 76ers, and Orlando Magic don't pose as real threats to the Pacers.
There is a lot going well for Indiana moving forward. And while it would be great to add one of the top prospects from this year's draft, it would be more of a cherry on top rather than the whole sundae.