A few bounces of a few ping-pong balls will determine the fate of the Indiana Pacers this May.
The Pacers appear headed for the NBA Draft Lottery, which will determine the selection order for what most experts regard as a loaded 2026 NBA Draft. If the season ended today, Indiana would have the fourth-best odds of drawing the No. 1 pick and a roughly 50-50 chance of landing a pick in the top four.
Can Pacers fans rely on a history of good fortune in the NBA Draft Lottery when those ping-pong balls are in the air? A look back at Indiana’s draft lottery history tells us Pacer fans should proceed with caution when lottery day approaches.
Was the big glass half-empty or half-full?
Indiana landed in the lottery four times between 1985 and 1989. In those days, all of the lottery teams had the same odds of winning the No. 1 pick. A large envelope representing each lottery team went into a clear container. The order in which the envelopes were drawn represented the draft order.
Statistically speaking, the Pacers enjoyed good luck in the draft lottery during this time. One would expect an average draft position of around 4.6 from those four lotteries. Indiana actually wound up with an average draft position of 3.75 – almost a full spot better than expected.
Context matters. Pacers fans who remember that era probably wouldn’t describe those lotteries as “lucky.” Most famously, Indiana wound up with the No. 2 pick in the first draft lottery in 1985, when the obvious top pick was eventual Hall of Fame center Patrick Ewing.
The Pacers had the second-worst record in the league in 1986, but settled for the No. 4 pick in the equal-opportunity lottery format. Indiana just missed on the No. 1 pick yet again in 1988 when Danny Manning was the prize (though Rik Smits at No. 2 turned out well for the franchise).
No luck but (slightly) bad luck in recent years
The NBA has used various weighted lottery systems since 1990. The teams with the worst records get the best chances of drawing the top pick.
Indiana has been a lottery team nine times since 1990. Statistically speaking, the Pacers have been ever-so-slightly unlucky over those nine lotteries.
Indiana drew a pick one spot worse than expected in 2022 – the No. 6 pick when the Pacers had the fifth-worst record in the league. The one-pick slip probably didn’t affect the long-term fate of the franchise. Indiana used the pick on Bennedict Mathurin. The Detroit Pistons took Jaden Ivey at No. 5. (In retrospect, the Pacers should have taken Jalen Williams, which might have changed a few things this past June).
The Pacers' expected draft order didn’t move in either direction in the franchise’s eight other draft lotteries.
Does this mean Indiana fans shouldn’t get their hopes up on draft lottery night? Or does this mean the Pacers are due for some good lottery luck? The bouncing ping-pong balls will tell.